MN 2022 Gov Race Megathread

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Actually now that I think about it, Mike Lindell could very likely win assuming 2022 is a red wave year.

Remember this is the same state that elected a professional wrestler as their governor from 1999-2003 (Jesse Ventura) and a Saturday Night Live comedian as one of their senators from 2009-2018 (Al Franken), so Mike Lindell as governor wouldn't really be anything new for Minnesota. They seem to like oddball candidates.

Though on the other hand, Ventura was an independent while Franken was a democrat, so that could spell trouble for Lindell? Especially if he faces tons of attacks for his connection to Trump (who already endorsed Lindell's potential bid for governor).

Remember this is also the state where a Republican hasn’t won statewide in 14 years.

That is a good point, though that doesn't mean they'll never elect one again. They're still a mild battleground after all, state and federal.

History seems to show that oddball candidates are easy to win elections in Minnesota, but what if that oddball is a republican with connections to Donald Trump in a state that voted for his opponent by 1.5% in 2016 and 7.1% in 2020?

It's hard to tell right now. Right now I'd rate it as lean/likely D if the GOP nominee isn't Lindell, and tossup to tilt/lean D if it is. And even if Lindell pulls off a shocking victory, it would still be a nailbiter of a margin.

I guess to average it all out right now, I would still rate the 2022 governor race as lean D, but that can easily change as we get closer to the election (and depending on how popular or unpopular Joe Biden is as president).

Lindell has zero crossover appeal, he's a clown and a cultural figure but one exclusively to conservatives rather one of broad popularity. The race is  Likley D if he runs given that he pretty much destroys any chance of republicans winning back the MSP area.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

He would likely have the best chance out of any Republican to pick this up in 2022 but it would remain a Lean D race even then. Still, It wouldn't completely blow my mind to see Lindell win.

Closer to Safe D than Lean D, somebody calling for trump to deploy troops to enforce Martial Law isn't winning a state that voted for Biden by 7 points, no amount of #trends in the iron belt will help with that.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I think the world of Mike Lindell.  He's a good and decent man.  I would hope he would not run for Governor.  He would be the most unfairly attacked candidate in history if he ran.

Literarly none of that is true. He's a man who called for martial law and military tribunals because he couldn't take losing an election.