Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4w--Vhjteg
He's endorsed them but continues to claim it's all rigged.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Trump's going full on election bullshist claiming ""Great Pollster John Mclaughlin"(Famous for showing Cantor in 34 point lead in a primary race for Cantor that he lost by 11 points) said a bunch of a bullsh**t about how his primary voters means he should have won.


https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/209327-national-republicans-dont-use-cantors-pollster

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

AOC should ask Perdue to send her the plane ticket to go to GA, and then when (if) she gets it, don't bother to go after all, and instead simply tweet "A fool and his money are soon parted."

or simply donate it to somebody in need of travelling to georgia.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It's a bit of a fools game to rely on early voting data but given how it held up in Georgia kinda welcome news for democrats.
https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1337950223914549249
https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1337950224770220033

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It's a bit of a fools game to rely on early voting data but given how it held up in Georgia kinda welcome news for democrats.
https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1337950223914549249

Is the 49.4% of requested ballots from 65+ correct?  I thought last week this was around 40% (and 31% in the general).  If 49.4% is correct- this should be a note of caution for Dems.

+65 voters are automatically sent absentte ballots if they requested one before.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1338647663164723202
Jon Ossoff is leaving Fortress Atlanta to venture out to more isolated Blue outposts in red territory.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1338840702751477761
Democrats did well in early voting and mail-ins going by county data but again it's a real fools game trying to read into these results.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/JeffCoxWGXA/status/1339017528379584512
https://twitter.com/JeffCoxWGXA/status/1339046897659629568

It's critical to know where the turnout is falling, from the data it seems Atlanta and the Suburbs are holding up ok which is a good sign but we need more details.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1339197213323501569?s=20
Some Good News For Perdue/Loleffer ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I haven't looked through 46 pages of commentary, so I don't know if this question has been addressed, but: why would a GA voter split her or his vote on Jan. 5?

Of course, if every voter split their ballots, the GOP would control the Senate unless both races ended in an exact tie. Continuing the journey through math fantasyland, any one of the four outcomes would have a 25% probability of happening if the races were independent, which of course they are not.

As of now, I'd say 3 of the 4 possible outcomes have about a 30% chance of happening, with Ossoff - Loeffler at about 10%.

Things to consider:
1. Some older, rural, white GOP voters have died since Nov. 3; and a number of those who turn 18 between Nov. 3 and Jan. 5 (more urban, more minority, more Democratic) have registered.

2. The Chambliss effect: in 2008, Saxby Chambliss (R) outpolled his Democratic opponent 49.9 - 47.2 on election day. Four weeks later, when everyone knew the Democrats had the presidency and both houses of Congress, Chambliss won comfortably, 57-43. The key difference in 2020, of course, is that, unlike in 2008, Senate control hangs in the balance (not to mention 12 years of the kinds of demographic changes described in 1 above).

Will the "Chambliss effect" be a factor this year?

There are some moderate suburbanites (such as forsythvoter) who have become alienated from Loeffler, but would still feel comfortable voting for Perdue. I don't fully understand their motivations either, given that both Loeffler and Perdue have hitched themselves on the Trump Train and have identical voting records. Moreover, both have made ignorant and controversial statements, and both have made explicit appeals to Trumpist voters.

Just to be clear, I'm not all that comfortable voting for Perdue for a variety of reasons. If I were, I would have just sent in my absentee ballot already.

Does anyone know if Atlas store copies of messages that we already sent privately? I actually just wrote a long email to another poster privately this morning laying out in a lot of detail my thinking process. I do want folks who are strongly D or R (and this forum has plenty) to at least understand the perspective of voters in the middle, even if they do not agree with it. I would like to publish it, but it's not showing up in my outbox.

Thanks to the poster that replied with my email so I could publish it . Presenting random musings of forsythvoter...

Before I get to the Senate runoffs, one of the reasons I post on Atlas (in addition to being curious about other viewpoints) is because I think there are a number of people who read the forums to get a better understanding of all the different political viewpoints that are out there. While I certainly don't represent all GA voters, I hope that my posts provide good insights on what's top of mind from the standpoint of a formerly R-leaning (arguably this is no longer the case, as you may be aware from my posts) voter whose views are pretty common in a heavily Republican suburb of Atlanta that is trending quite rapidly Democratic.

In terms of how I think about the Senate runoffs, I actually don't view it as a vote for Perdue/Loeffler vs. Ossof / Warnock. Rather, I see it more as a vote for Collins / Murkowski / Romney vs. a vote for Manchin / Sinema. Therefore, the difference to me is not as extreme as I think many Democrats see it. I still see value in a system where Democrats should be able to get at least one R to sign onto their legislation. In my mind as a moderate, that makes for more moderate legislation. And if the situations were reversed (Trump were re-elected with a narrow House majority, my thinking would absolutely be flipped). The fact that I'm contemplating voting straight Democratic for the runoffs is frankly what's quite incredible imo, and a reflection of how much the GOP has turned off voters like me.

In terms of legislation - you can look through some of my past points, but I really do worry about our ballooning deficit and national debt. I realize and agree Republicans have done nothing to control this, but I worry that giving Dems a trifecta will lead to excess spending in areas that I actually don't think are good for the broader economy. For example, I actually don't think those with student loans on average are struggling as much as those without (I say that as a college-educated voter who has student loans and would benefit from having them canceled).

There are two good points you and others have raised and I am digesting it. It is these two things which are preventing me from just following my typical instinct to not give Dems a trifecta. One is how much power does McConnell really have to prevent legislation from getting passed, assuming Murkowski, Romney or Collins agree. I frankly still don't fully understand this point and if you have any insights, I will be eager to hear. I agree with the Ds that he will try to obstruct Biden's agenda - the question I have, is to what extent can he do so with 51 or 52 votes.

The other point is I do not think highly of Loeffler or Perdue at all. The reason I've ruled out voting for Loeffler goes beyond just the fraud accusations. I think she's essentially running a dog whistle campaign (how she wasn't aware that was taking a picture with a prominent KKK member is frankly not even the tip of the iceberg for me) in the hopes that white voters like me secretly agree with her not so subtle references to Warnock's race. I find it honestly quite offensive, and frankly if I weren't comfortable living with black Americans, I wouldn't be living in metro Atlanta in the first place. This type of campaign to me is absolutely disqualifying and is why Warnock has my vote.

Perdue isn't running against Warnock, so you may argue that's why we haven't seen that sort of a campaign to this extent from his side, but I try to judge based on what I see, not on what I think I would see. This is where I think Dems and Reps tend to jump the gun, including on issues like packing the courts. I would prefer not to pack the courts; maybe my opinion would change if they started overturning Roe vs. Wade, Obergefell, etc. but I am not convinced hat they will do so. If Dems pack the courts, they will also have to contend with the very real likelihood that Repubs will do the same once they have the trifecta btw - an outcome I tend to think is just as likely in the future as Dems getting and maintaining one.

So for Perdue, my vote is really coming down to how much do I think Biden's agenda will be stonewalled vs. just moderated by Rs having a 51 seat majority in the Senate.

You need to understand that the senate is a slow a deliberative body. Years of precedent has given the senate majority leader basically unlimited power for setting the agenda, the only way to avoid that is for a majority of senators to sign a discharge petitions which hasn't happen in 18 years. The reason is that the majority leader controls committee allocations and hence can easily retaliate against any sign of disloyalty.

Now the senate also has the filibuster meaning that even if the dems tie the house, they will have to work with Republicans to get any sort of bill passed. Currently, Mcconel uses a rule where he refuses to bring a bill the floor unless a majority of republican support it so pretty much any legislation is DOA. If you want the democrats to pass anything even the most basic of bills please vote for both Warnock and Osofff, the far-left democrats and their ideas won't has any shot of passing now that the senate is tied.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1341046361060306944
new poll showing Ossoff outperforming Warnock.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1341403800465272837
don't do this
don't make me hope

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1342648548647690240
Perdue King of the Suburbs will Destroy Weak Pernerrial Candidate John Ossoff, While Strong Candidate(TM) Warnock will destroy weak Loeffler

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

JMC poll:

Warnock +9
Ossoff +8

https://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Georgia-Senate-Runoff-Executive-Summary.pdf

https://politicalwire.com/2020/12/30/democrats-hold-leads-in-georgia-runoffs/

garbage poll,but I'll still take it.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Bitecoffer said today she has never analyzed a race before where the ev was so good for one party and  that party ended up losing

In fact, I would argue the ev for dems in these Georgia races is better than any ev data in any election since 2014

Friends don't let Friends take Bitecoffer Seriously, she's the worst Dem Hack out there speaking as a dem hack.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

One thing I'm still not sure about is why did they wait till January to hold the runoffs? Aren't they usually in December (2008, 2018)?

I think trump's recount sapped a lot of resources nessciating the delay.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

If black turnout is realy higher than in the general a few blackbelt counties like Berk and Peach could flip but they are pretty low population so it wouldn't make much difference.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I am trying to create a post with all of the closing ads from the 4 candidates...

Can someone tell me how to insert youtube videos... or is the only option- to insert Tweets that contain the video?

(I will delete this when someone responds- as I'm not sure if how-to questions are supposed to be in this thread)

Click on the youtube button next to facebook and copy in the link.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I’m still surprised Dems don’t put out a massive social media and young voter oriented message:

“Republicans are blocking $2000 checks that both Biden and Trump want you to have”

“If Democrats win on Tuesday - You will get $2000 checks”

If you can get that message in the heads of young people who rarely vote I think you could ramp up turnout but.... too late now I suppose

Democrats are doing that, people need to stop armchair campagin managing by suggesting things that are already being done.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/beauvans/status/1346462167122518018
https://twitter.com/AmyEGardner/status/1346427296819908608
2 conflicting anecodtes, a reminder not to take any info on twitter too seriously.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Does anyone know if in person early votes will be reported with the election day vote tonight? Or are those counted later with the mail votes?

reported later I think.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

These numbers aren't matching the CNN exit polls...

If CNN's numbers were right a lot of these 100% complete counties would have different numbers than last time but few do.

exit polls being wrong is the easiest explanation.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Question so I get the German Wiki entries right:

Is Warnock the first African-American ever to win a statewide race in GA ? Or only statewide for a federal race (excl. Governor, statewide dog-catcher etc.) ?

And I guess he's the first Black Senator from GA ever, right ?

He's the first black senator but Georgia has voted state-wide for African Americans before.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thurbert_Baker