UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What's Boris Johnsons absolute last break the glass strategy if he's facing a leadership challenge ?. He seems to have mostly exhausted all remaning tricks trying to cling on this far.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Not going to share it but Mail on Sunday has published a vile article accusing Angela Rayner of using basic instinct tactics of crossing her legs to distract Boris in the Chamber. Goes onto to insult her even further

This was actually briefed by senior conservatives and somehow written up and published by the MOS. I’m not particularly sure how it got past any lawyers.

Is Rayner launching a defamation case actualy likely though ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Why exactly is the mail on Sunday so deep in the tank for Boris ? I know it's a very partisan Tory paper but why is it particularly loyal to Boris ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It’s been interesting that it was spread among well the ‘back Boris’ types on Twitter for weeks- there has been very little written about these people and the hyper form of activism.

We had endless words about online Corbyn supporters (who were different to the organised left) but this is funnily enough rather similar-most likely boomers, the bad memes, alternative media eco-systems, dabbling into conspiracy theories, active on Twitter.

Isn't that because the very online Boris cultuists are just a much less visible online than the online rabid Corby types ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Really doesn’t help having Nadine front the message. Especially as it’s in her brief to deal with misinformation…

Imo she was lucky not to get sued back in 2020 for sharing that vile video.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/14/labour-urges-tory-mps-to-admit-keir-starmer-video-was-doctored?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

A certain D Hodges humiliating himself as perhaps never before in trying to "justify" said photo.

Interesting that the certain D Hodges was a former Labour Member.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I almost *want* to see them try and turn Ed "Starmer Without The Excitement" Davey into some sort of scary bogey figure - it will be genuinely hilarious.

Wouldn't the campagin more be focused on turning "Former Trot" Starmer into such a figure for Con-Lib Dem swing voters ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I almost *want* to see them try and turn Ed "Starmer Without The Excitement" Davey into some sort of scary bogey figure - it will be genuinely hilarious.

Wouldn't the campagin more be focused on turning "Former Trot" Starmer into such a figure for Con-Lib Dem swing voters ?

Well they are going to struggle with that too, though they seem to prefer the "he served under Jezza!" scare rather than the "Trot 40 years ago" one that literally nobody cares about even in the Tory party (after all, some of their MPs past and present were once on the left too)

There's also the Savile and grooming gangs stuff to rehash if they get really desperate, I suppose.

Well it probably won't matter to Labour voters or even Labour-Con swing voters, but i'm guessing trying to scaremonger about far-left policies that a Starmer-Davey  Alliance would implement could work. Similar to the mansion tax attack in 2015.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It's city status competition time!  We have 39 applicants, five of which aren't actually in the UK, and some are really really tiny.

England: Alcester, Warwickshire [1]; Blackburn; Bolsover [2]; Boston, Lincolnshire; Bournemouth; Colchester; Crawley; Crewe; Doncaster; Dorchester, Dorset; Dudley; Goole [3]; Guildford; Marazion, Cornwall [4]; Medway [5]; Middlesbrough; Milton Keynes; Newport and Carisbrooke, Isle of Wight; Northampton; Reading; Warrington; Warwick

Wales: Wrexham

Northern Ireland: Ballymena; Bangor, Co. Down; Coleraine

Scotland: Dumfries; Dunfermline; Elgin [6]; Greenock; Livingston; Oban; St. Andrews; South Ayrshire [7]

Isle of Man: Douglas; Peel

Falkland Islands: Stanley

Cayman Islands: George Town

Gibraltar: Gibraltar

[1] I wonder how many people know where this is and how to pronounce it.
[2] Do they want a reward for electing a Tory MP or something?
[3] LOL
[4] Even smaller than St Davids, presumably just trying for a bit of publicity
[5] They'd probably have a better chance if they just applied for Rochester to get it back.
[6] Used to be a city, and thinks it still is.
[7] WTF?  Did they mean to apply for Ayr?

And we have winners!

Colchester
Doncaster
Milton Keynes
Wrexham
Bangor, Co Down (Bangor in Gwynedd is already a city)
Dunfermline
Douglas (IoM)
Stanley (Falklands)

Wouldn't every single town in the UK become a city at some point in the future, assuming this countinues ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I almost *want* to see them try and turn Ed "Starmer Without The Excitement" Davey into some sort of scary bogey figure - it will be genuinely hilarious.

Wouldn't the campagin more be focused on turning "Former Trot" Starmer into such a figure for Con-Lib Dem swing voters ?

Well they are going to struggle with that too, though they seem to prefer the "he served under Jezza!" scare rather than the "Trot 40 years ago" one that literally nobody cares about even in the Tory party (after all, some of their MPs past and present were once on the left too)

There's also the Savile and grooming gangs stuff to rehash if they get really desperate, I suppose.

Well it probably won't matter to Labour voters or even Labour-Con swing voters, but i'm guessing trying to scaremonger about far-left policies that a Starmer-Davey  Alliance would implement could work. Similar to the mansion tax attack in 2015.

But the underlying point is that - compared to even "Red Ed", never mind Jezza - Starmer and Davey are simply fundamentally not very scary people. Tories risk actually looking ridiculous if they just try and run the 2015 attack lines all over again.

I don't know, there's already a scary biography of him out there painting him as a Machiavellian figure with a long-term plan to sabotage and purge the left from the party.
https://www.economist.com/britain/2022/04/28/sir-keir-starmer-the-cynical-leader

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I seriously doubt there's any chance that the conservatives will Coup Boris, they've stuck with him long enough that I think most of the MP's have moved on with regards to the scandal.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Have the Tories simply given up on winning the next election?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Another one - Elliot Colburn, who's seat is uber-marginal with the Lib Dems (under 650 votes), has put his letter in.

I have to wonder whether going home for constituency surgeries over the weekend may have provided the motivation to get him over the line...

Source: https://twitter.com/TomLarkinSky/status/1531270078674751489

This is quite a trickle, I do wonder if Boris might be thinking it's better to have the no-confidence vote now where he's almost certain to win it rather than latter.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

A no-confidence vote would be an almost certain win for Boris, there doesn't seem to be any obvious replacement. I don't think Tory MP's want their goverment to become even more chaotic ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Yeah, the Lascelles Principles only stop a dissolution if there's an alternative PM available, so I think they only stop a Johnson General Election gambit once the Conservative Party actually has a new leader.  I don't think that was the scenario being floated; rather the idea is that Johnson, after losing or nearly losing a Tory VONC, comes out with some "the MPs have spoken, but let's now ask The People" line and goes to the country.  Alternatively, he does it to pre-empt the Tory VONC.  In either of those scenarios I think the Queen agrees to the dissolution.

That can't be right, surely? It would be obvious that there would be an alternative who can win the confidence of Parliament-the winner of the leadership election. I don't see why the identity of the individual would need to be known if it's a fact that they will exist.

I think knowing the identity of the individual is pretty key to knowing if they would be able to command the confidence of parliament, like let's say the PM reject's boris's call for a snap election. Are you going to trust Boris to be caretaker prime-minister while the conservative leadership contest happens ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Yeah, the Lascelles Principles only stop a dissolution if there's an alternative PM available, so I think they only stop a Johnson General Election gambit once the Conservative Party actually has a new leader.  I don't think that was the scenario being floated; rather the idea is that Johnson, after losing or nearly losing a Tory VONC, comes out with some "the MPs have spoken, but let's now ask The People" line and goes to the country.  Alternatively, he does it to pre-empt the Tory VONC.  In either of those scenarios I think the Queen agrees to the dissolution.

That can't be right, surely? It would be obvious that there would be an alternative who can win the confidence of Parliament-the winner of the leadership election. I don't see why the identity of the individual would need to be known if it's a fact that they will exist.

I think knowing the identity of the individual is pretty key to knowing if they would be able to command the confidence of parliament, like let's say the PM reject's boris's call for a snap election. Are you going to trust Boris to be caretaker prime-minister while the conservative leadership contest happens ?

If someone can win a Conservative leadership election, then anyone has to assume they would command the confidence of a Parliament with around 360 Conservative MPs.

The issue is that any situation where Boris is calling for a snap election following a VONC, implies he has at least some personal support from the conservative caucus that would not nessciarly have the support. In essence, the Queen would be forced to make an explicitly political choice which is something she's been very loath to do.

Also talking about precedent is now a parliamentary bill that governs the calling for election, that explicitly strips judicial review from the process.

https://bills.parliament.uk/publications/41467/documents/206

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

This is like a LibDem leader getting heckled at a train spotters convention.

Or a Labour leader getting heckled at a union meeting, oh wait.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What's the maximum possible size of Cabinet ? just wondering if Boris is going to to massively infalte the cabinet to bribe the MP's with jobs.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Any predictions about the margin?

My gut says Johnson survives the vote, but is permanently damaged by a close race, and large rebellious contingent. Removing him isn’t out of the question, but still feels like an uphill effort, given how many MPs are on the ministerial payroll, owe their seats to him from 2019, or both. 

I think he goes down by around 20-30 MPs, I don't think he has enough hardcore support left and I think oppostion to him is likley to snowball especialy when it comes down to an anonymous vote.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Here we go…
https://mobile.twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1533748389891940352

Perhaps a thread title change is in order, and a new thread about the conservative leadership contest ?.

Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss and Ben Wallace have come out in support of the Pm, are Cabinet ministers forbidden from voting against the PM ?

Also here's the "rebuttal" by pro boris-mps to the earlier anti-boris tory mp briefing.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss and Ben Wallace have come out in support of the Pm, are Cabinet ministers forbidden from voting against the PM ?

It's a secret ballot.  Possibly not everyone who has said they're supporting Johnson actually will...

ok, hmm seems Hunt so far is pretty alone is openly opposing Boris. Sajid David is still backing Boris and so are most other possible replacments.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I wonder if there's some databse with a link to every conservative MP's twitter account, maybe make a spreadsheet to see who all have expressed support/oppostion or no comment with regards to the vote.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

quick browing of /r/tories, seems like a lot of members are angry at the boris but seem to think the issue is "Immigration" an issue noticeable for having almost dissapred from the public counciousness according to polls. They also seem to think Boris has focused to much on winning Guardian readers which seems to be pretty funny suggestion.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

So, weird observation. The Cabinet are out in force, defending Johnson to the hilt. Even quiet, low-key members like Alister Jack and Therese Coffey. Raab and Rees-Mogg have done prime time interviews on TV, and Dorries is doing exactly what you’d expect on Twitter.

But Priti Patel has been absolutely silent all day. Wonder whether she’s extracting some concession from Johnson, or is just keeping her powder dry.

Odds are we’ll get a statement of support shortly, but still - odd that the rest of the cabinet had a statement out by 11am, and she’s still laying low.

A unity ticket with Hunt?

Isn't Patel one of the most unpopular cabinet members ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

How screwed would labour and the lib Dems be with regards to candidate selection and funding an snap election campaign. If one is called ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

How screwed would labour and the lib Dems be with regards to candidate selection and funding an snap election campaign. If one is called ?

They'd be fine - some candidate selection has already been going on and emergency procedures exist (and were used at the last two GEs). As for funding, well, the eternal tensions between Labour and the unions over funding are largely about the Party's routine operating costs: a General Election is a different game. It would maybe have been an issue for the LibDems prior to the Coalition, but now that they're back to running paper candidates in most of the country they don't need as much cash and can concentrate resources on a few score constituencies.

Didn't the emergency procedures lead to a lot of terrible people being selected and elected ? That's my worry, you'd have a lot of hastily picked canidates dragged in the labour majority.