2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (user search)
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  2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 646223 times)
Splash
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« Reply #100 on: November 05, 2020, 01:20:42 PM »
Trump's lead down to 114,341 votes in PA after Armstrong County's AVs came in. For reference, Trump is winning Armstrong overall 78-21.
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Splash
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« Reply #101 on: November 05, 2020, 01:26:27 PM »
A very small batch of votes just came in from Delaware, PA and Trump's lead now stands at 114,011 votes
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Splash
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« Reply #102 on: November 05, 2020, 01:31:19 PM »

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Splash
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« Reply #103 on: November 05, 2020, 02:39:30 PM »
Trump now only ahead by 108.7K votes with small update from Bucks County, Was 114K.
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Splash
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« Reply #104 on: November 05, 2020, 03:31:32 PM »
Philadelphia is a bit further ahead on their elections site. The city just reported out another 7K absentee ballots, which Biden won. It should cut Trump's lead by another 6K once it's factored in.

https://results.philadelphiavotes.com/ResultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY
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Splash
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« Reply #105 on: November 05, 2020, 03:50:35 PM »
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Splash
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« Reply #106 on: November 05, 2020, 04:46:25 PM »
Biden just netted ~1,700 votes as the Crawford County AVs came in. Trump is leading in the county overall, 71-27. That's the reason you really can't depend on the absentee ballots in rural Pennsylvania to be all that favorable, relatively speaking, to Trump.  
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Splash
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« Reply #107 on: November 05, 2020, 04:48:09 PM »
Quote from: GeneralMacArthur on November 05, 2020, 04:47:36 PM
Is there any risk of Gary Peters losing, at the end of the day, due to oddities in Michigan?

No.
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Splash
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« Reply #108 on: November 05, 2020, 04:53:50 PM »

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Splash
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« Reply #109 on: November 05, 2020, 04:59:35 PM »

And here is the reason why:


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Splash
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« Reply #110 on: November 05, 2020, 05:08:38 PM »
Antrim County in Michigan finally corrected their vote totals. This was a 62-34 Trump county in 2016 and the news organizations originally had Biden winning it by an absurd margin with something like a 44 point swing. It ended up 57-42 for Trump, which is actually still a decently large swing towards Biden.
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Splash
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« Reply #111 on: November 05, 2020, 05:16:57 PM »

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Splash
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« Reply #112 on: November 05, 2020, 09:19:42 PM »
Per the Philadelphia elections website, there are 60K absentee votes still to be reported. This is a conservative estimate since the total amount of absentee ballots received is based on those recorded by 11/2, which means there may be more ballots that came in on election day that still have to be counted.

And then, of course, there are the provisional ballots, but I don't think Biden will need to rely on them at the end of the day. The absentee ballots should be more than enough.
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Splash
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« Reply #113 on: November 05, 2020, 10:37:50 PM »
36.5K lead for Trump in PA now.
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Splash
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« Reply #114 on: November 05, 2020, 10:39:57 PM »

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Splash
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« Reply #115 on: November 05, 2020, 11:02:24 PM »
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Splash
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« Reply #116 on: November 05, 2020, 11:18:57 PM »
Nate Cohn said there aren't 9K military ballots left to count. There were 9K overseas/military ballots that were sent out and have yet to be recorded/received. It is possible that many of these could come in before the deadline but it's also just as possible that a minority end up being received by the deadline.
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Splash
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« Reply #117 on: November 06, 2020, 12:21:09 AM »

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Splash
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« Reply #118 on: November 06, 2020, 08:00:49 AM »
Just a reminder that the outstanding absentee ballot number in PA is based on subtracting those already counted from the total amount of AVs recorded by mid-day on 11/2. It doesn't include absentee ballots received late on 11/2 or on election day, hence the varying estimates of how many ballots remain uncounted.
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Splash
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« Reply #119 on: November 06, 2020, 08:02:53 AM »
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Splash
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« Reply #120 on: November 06, 2020, 09:34:11 AM »
This is important:


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Splash
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« Reply #121 on: November 06, 2020, 12:04:57 PM »
Why aren't the networks calling Nevada for Biden? If the vast majority of outstanding ballots are mail-ins from Clark and Biden is winning them 2:1 then there is no conceivable way that the rurals or even an unexpected pro-Trump dump from Washoe could change the trajectory of that race.  
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Splash
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« Reply #122 on: November 06, 2020, 05:36:34 PM »
Good thread:

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Splash
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« Reply #123 on: November 06, 2020, 05:49:41 PM »
Quote from: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 06, 2020, 05:48:27 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2020, 05:34:52 PM
Allegheny will not drop new results until at least 6:30 pm EST - 3200 votes that were damaged + 3800 military/overseas voters. 

What about all their regular VBM ballots?  Don’t they have >30,000 of those?

Yes. And they haven't even started tabulating those. This is so ridiculous.
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Splash
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« Reply #124 on: November 06, 2020, 05:51:07 PM »
I think we're supposed to get another dump from Clark County in an hour or so, right?
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