Argentina

[Red Velvet]

For anyone interested, here's a runoff simulator. Not the most accurate or the most scientific, but it helps get a rough idea.

My result was Milei 52,5% - Massa 47,5%. In line with what i thought, very close but lean Milei.

Here's the graphic:

I did one attributing random % of transfers that I thought were more likely to happen for each party and nulls/blanks and I got:

Milei 50,1%
Massa 49,9%

No joke, I wasn’t even trying to get some specific result. It just happened.

I gave 71% of the JxC going to Milei and 60% of Hacemos por Nuestro Pais to Milei too, while predicting around 20%-23% of these two to be blank/null.

Frente de Izquierda I gave 89% to Massa - 11% Milei, with 11% being blank/null.

The blank/null votes I predicted to be more balanced, with 64%-68% repeating their blank/null vote from 1st round. But between new voters, I favored Massa with around 54%-58% of the vote, with Milei getting between 42%-46%

Of new participation, I predicted +0,84% turnout (extra 294k votes, reasonably low, I wanted to keep close to 1st round because I don’t think it will go much higher) and of these new voters I favored Massa to get 57% and Milei 43%.

FINAL RESULTS prediction with these transfers:

Milei - 50,1% (12.580.108 votes)
Massa - 49,9% (12.522.399 votes)

Milei wins for mere 57k votes lol

[Red Velvet]

Okay, I lowered down the blank/invalid transfers to closer to 5%-10% instead if 20%-25% - which was what I had no parameter to go on and now I still have:

Milei - 50,7%
Massa - 49,3%

Extremely close to a tie, but slightly leaning Milei indeed if he gets that 70% transfer from JxC and 65% from Hacemos por Nuestra Patria.

The higher the Bullrich voters abstain, the better it is for Massa is what I am getting. He needs at least >20% of these people to not pick a side and at least abstain and then overperform only a bit between new voters or voters who initially went blank/null.

[Red Velvet]

For anyone interested, here's a runoff simulator. Not the most accurate or the most scientific, but it helps get a rough idea.

My result was Milei 52,5% - Massa 47,5%. In line with what i thought, very close but lean Milei.

Here's the graphic:

I did one attributing random % of transfers that I thought were more likely to happen for each party and nulls/blanks and I got:

Milei 50,1%
Massa 49,9%

No joke, I wasn’t even trying to get some specific result. It just happened.

I gave 71% of the JxC going to Milei and 60% of Hacemos por Nuestro Pais to Milei too, while predicting around 20%-23% of these two to be blank/null.

Frente de Izquierda I gave 89% to Massa - 11% Milei, with 11% being blank/null.

The blank/null votes I predicted to be more balanced, with 64%-68% repeating their blank/null vote from 1st round. But between new voters, I favored Massa with around 54%-58% of the vote, with Milei getting between 42%-46%

Of new participation, I predicted +0,84% turnout (extra 294k votes, reasonably low, I wanted to keep close to 1st round because I don’t think it will go much higher) and of these new voters I favored Massa to get 57% and Milei 43%.

FINAL RESULTS prediction with these transfers:

Milei - 50,1% (12.580.108 votes)
Massa - 49,9% (12.522.399 votes)

Milei wins for mere 57k votes lol

I believe Hacemos voters wouldn't go to Millei in such a big proportions ,or might go to Massa even

I adjusted the total vote to the expected 24,6 M total (100k higher than 1st round, like 2015) by upping the abstentions. The scenario got friendlier to Massa, so I adjusted the transfers a bit more in favor to Milei to see the 50/50 scenario.

JxC: 70% to Milei; 30% to Massa (24% Null/Blank)

Hacemos: 60% to Milei; 40% to Massa (22% Null/Blank)

Frente de Izquierda: 20% to Milei; 80% to Massa (15% Null/Blank)

Blank/Nulls: 50% to Milei; 50% to Massa (75% Null/Blank)

New voters: 50% to Milei; 50% to Massa (+0,34% turnout)

Final result:

Milei 50,1% (12,33 M votes)
Massa 49,9% (12,27 M votes)

Basically, Massa needs a 50/50 divide with Blank/Nulls and try avoid Milei getting a 70% transfer with JxC voters by taking away some of these from him.

The overall transfer that Massa needs is 40% Massa / 60% Milei. Frente de Izquierda + New Voters + Blank/Nulls will push that average somewhat down but JxC voters will make up the largest amount of the new vote so the JxC transfer can’t be that much higher than this 40/60, especially if most don’t abstain.

So as long as the Hacemos voters fall into a 40/60 divide (the transfer number Massa needs in average, so it’s in his favor) AND the JxC transfer is anything lower than a 30/70, then Massa has decent chances.

Would be useful if there was a poll asking JxC voters how they will vote. IF the abstention/blank/null intention % is lower than 25% and excluding these, Milei gets at least 70% vote intention while the rest goes to Massa, I would give it quite safely to Milei though.