Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Red Velvet]

I support neutrality btw! It has been funny to see some people in the center-left pissed about PT position on this as if it was EVER was something different. The neutral strategy has been going on since the 90s and passed throughout Lula and Dilma governments lol

I feel like these woke liberal progressives who think they’re leftists just got of age to vote and were on the PT train just because they believed they are the “Anti-Bolsonaro” option and thought they would defend turning the country into their Twitter-feed utopia.

That’s just suicide in a country as religious and with extreme regional particularities defined by wealth as Brazil. Seriously, I cannot with these “liberal leftists” and how arrogant they are when looking down at stuff that just defines our country whether they’re groups they belong to or not. I am gay and even though I will vote PT I don’t expect the party to go full force in our support for example (although they definitely are much more friendly than the right), but these clueless kids are about to get a shock.

And now they come with this idea that we should not be neutral when there was a literal military dictatorship here to ensure we wouldn’t pick a side in international polarization when someone had a minimal impression of us taking a side. We need to talk about our Cold War history more often and why strongly picking a side internationally is a disastrous idea.

No, no. Not here! We’re not submissive to take sides for other countries ego fights, be them US, Russia, China or anyone else.

[Red Velvet]

Although the states don't matter for the presidential election in Brazil, since we have a direct national popular vote, it is interesting to follow this profile in the Twitter, which collects the results of all presidential election polls conducted at the state level. This is a good thermomether for the national vote. https://twitter.com/agregadorde/status/1499777533608349701

Close to my prediction so far, actually even a bit more pro-Lula than I expected because of Paraná:

Basically all states matching with the polls minus Paraná.

Although until the election I expect things to narrow down and Paraná go to Bolsonaro as I expected, maybe even some states I gave Lula could get a little bit more Pro-Bolsonaro perhaps.

But I’m comfortable with my predix so far. Although I must admit Mato Grosso being more pro-Bolsonaro than Acre is a surprise to me. Then again, Acre was never that Right-wing, maybe we overestimated effects of recent trends as permanent when in parts they were kinda temporary.

ETA: Just saw that Paraná is the closest in the polls comparison (Lula 40% vs Bolsonaro 38%), so yeah, that’s so small that I definitely expect this to shift in favor of Bolsonaro in the election, especially in the case of an eventual runoff.

Besides, Paraná is the state with the most Moro voters and in the runoff they would mostly go to Bolsonaro, giving the victory to Bolsonaro over Lula in the state. My map is looking really accurate if there’s no major change between now and the election.

[Red Velvet]

New poll from Quaest/Genial!!!

Lula (PT) 45%
Bolsonaro (PL) 25%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 7%
Sérgio Moro (PODE) 6%
João Doria (PSDB) 2%
André Janones (AVANTE) 2%

Runoff scenarios:

Lula 63% vs Bolsonaro 37%
Lula 67% vs Sérgio Moro 33%
Lula 69% vs Ciro Gomes 31%
Lula 79% vs João Doria 21%

In an eventual runoff without Bolsonaro, especially in a Lula vs Doria, there are a good number of Bolsonaro voters that would vote for Lula/PT before voting for Doria/PSDB lmao

The way the some PSDB voters went to the hard right and now despise PSDB more than anything because they see it as competition is quite something.

[Red Velvet]

Quaest March 2022, questions related to Russia vs Ukraine war

View on Russia
All: unfavorable 68%, none 26%, favorable 7%
Bolsonaro voters: unfavorable 69%, none 24%, favorable 7%
Lula voters: unfavorable 65%, none 27%, favorable 8%
other voters: unfavorable 46%, none 51%, favorable 4%

Which side should Brazil support?
All: neutral 71%, Ukraine 20%, Russia 1%
Bolsonaro voters: neutral 78%, Ukraine 16%, Russia 1%
Lula voters: neutral 68%, Ukraine 21%, Russia 1%
other voters: neutral 70%, Ukraine 25%, Russia 1%

I love this country neutrality/independence rooted in people minds. Although I expected even higher neutral support, still in the 70s but closer to 80%

On the ideal scenario we should steal Switzerland reputation on this.

[Red Velvet]

Paulo Guedes declarations about Paraguay becoming the Richest Brazilian State was genuinely one of the most disgusting things he said. And there’s lots of material, between the “maids traveling to Disney every year” and “All Brazilians owning one or two IPhones”.

And it’s fascinating how it’s always the formula of elevating a group to a false super wealthy status with such contempt that makes it clear that he doesn’t think it’s right. Like, most maids absolutely do not travel to Disney and there are Brazilians who don’t even have a phone, but the way he creates these false realities and make them sound like they were bad or wrong (if they happened to be true!) is a weird mix of class prejudice with lies/fake news that happens to be what I despise the most in politics and in this government.

But now that asshole even has to involve neighbor/friend countries into this constant BS that he always voices. Paraguay tweeted this, condemning the statement:

https://mobile.twitter.com/mreparaguay/status/1505179054437244930
I really really really hate the people in this government.

[Red Velvet]

Paulo Guedes declarations about Paraguay becoming the Richest Brazilian State was genuinely one of the most disgusting things he said. And there’s lots of material, between the “maids traveling to Disney every year” and “All Brazilians owning one or two IPhones”.

Can’t believe I never heard about the maids comment. What a disgusting person.

It was when he was trying to spin the rise of the Dollar exchange rate vs the Real in 2020 at the beginning of the pandemic as actually a good thing:

Economy Minister Paulo Guedes said on Wednesday that a higher dollar is "good for everyone". He said that "everyone" was going to Disney, in the United States, including "housemaids", with the lower dollar. And he recommended that Brazilians should travel throughout Brazil.

"The exchange rate is not jittery, it has changed. There is no exchange business at R$1.80. Everybody was going to Disneyland, even housemaids were going to Disneyland, a huge party. Go to Foz do Iguaçu, go for a trip to the Northeast, it's filled with beautiful beaches. Go to Cachoeiro do Itapemirim…

A startup even had a give away of a trip to Disney to one housemaid after that comment lol

Guedes is the economy minister and he’s basically the most anti-poor person I’ve seen in a position of power lol. He genuinely appears to think poor people choose to be so or are lazy and it’s always cringe when he opens his mouth.

[Red Velvet]

Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) declined to run for governor of São Paulo. He will run for federal representative. Good decision. He and Fernando Haddad (PT) are very similar, and they shouldn't split the votes. Fernando Haddad has big probability to become the first PT governor of São Paulo.

PT and most of the PSOL are getting closer, although there is a minority wing in PSOL which doesn't want to endorse Haddad, they want to have an own candidate.

Sad because it’s not like PT really needed PSOL support to win this election. They always made clear the “wide front anti-Bolsonaro” is about reaching to the center and center-right, evidenced by putting Alckmin as VP.

And without any “radical” type of left option, it’s bad for the left in the long term. PSOL was the only one that represented that, but they also definitely changed a lot since its creation from a more radical socialist party into closer to a liberal softer brand of leftism. So it makes sense with the developments and their voters positions as well.

I feel like the field misses something, kinda like a PCP (Portugal) type of party. PSOL would be our BE and PT a middle ground big tent between PS and PCP (definitely closer to PS in practice though).

[Red Velvet]

I feel like the field misses something, kinda like a PCP (Portugal) type of party. PSOL would be our BE and PT a middle ground big tent between PS and PCP (definitely closer to PS in practice though).

Isn't PCdoB just like PCP? Also, don't know if PCP will last a lot more time, to be honest.

I guess, but they’re more of a sidekick to PT and the only name in the party I know in my state is Jandira Feghali. They’re also on route to extinction.

[Red Velvet]

DataFolha new poll (again, tends to be most traditional BR pollster alongside IPEC) confirms the tightening of the race, although Lula still has a 21 point lead in a runoff.

Lula 43% (-5)
Bolsonaro 26% (+4)
Moro 8% (-1)
Ciro 6% (-1)
Doria 2% (-2)
Janones 2% (new)

Runoff:
Lula 55% (-4)
Bolsonaro 34% (+4)
Blank/Null 10%
Don’t Know 1%

Changes are from last Datafolha poll, released in December 2021.

But that could diminish as 2022 is looking like an unexpected “good” year so far, which benefits Bolsonaro. Besides main COVID restrictions from 2020/2021 ending and now there not being any unpopular “reforms” pushed by politicians like Pension reform approved in 2019, analysts also point out to the emergency financial aid back again being given since December 2021 having an impact of softening the president unpopularity.

Not to mention, the Dollar fell to R$4,84 which to me is still high as hell if we compare it to pre-COVID or pre-Bolsonaro numbers. But after reaching a highest of R$5,80 during the pandemic and basically a succession of bad stuff in the last years, people are becoming cautiously optimistic. Although I think expecting Bolsonaro loss later this year is main cause for optimism for most lol.

Regarding the Datafolha poll about the government approval, people evaluation of the government reflects the election poll changes. That’s what Brazilians said they think of the current government:

Bad/Awful 46% (-7)
Regular/Average 28% (+4)
Good/Great 25% (+3)

[Red Velvet]

Could some of you guys explain to me, what is the point with so many changing parties of Brazilian politicians? Plenty of them change at least five or more political parties.

Usually electoral strategy, or maybe the party starts taking positions they dislike.

You have to understand first parties aren’t that much ideological here. Some are, but pragmatism has to speak louder in the end because there are tons of parties and no one can do anything if there isn’t a good deal of multilateral activity involved.

In the end it’s more of a theater where the politicians electoral rhetoric is more ideological than their actual term. See Bolsonaro for example, he presented himself as a very ideological candidate and convinced people he would “change everything”. In the end he failed because it’s impossible for one figure, even if they convince people to cult their figure, to do permanent stuff just by themselves. And the more he attacked political system, the more he isolated himself.

In his case, there was an internal conflict in PSL between the president of the party and Bolsonaro for power. Bolsonaro wanted a party for himself where he could make the internal decisions but he was always too incompetent and lazy to actually create one from scratch, so it was more convenient for him to join whoever accepted him and try to change it from the inside.

That meant entering in conflict with Bivar (PSL president) who welcomed Bolsonaro for the potential of votes he represented (which helped the party grow and elect more people, allowing it to get stuff like more campaign funds and TV time), but wouldn’t accept him stealing his party. In the end the Bivar-wing won and that’s why Bolsonaro left for example, as he had no control of the party.

But generally it happens for more strategic stuff and creation of alliances. PSB for example, is now receiving people who were from right-wing PSDB (Geraldo Alckmin) and the leftist PSOL (Marcelo Freixo). Why? Well, Lula voiced his desire for Alckmin to be his VP in order to signal a broad democratic front uniting against Bolsonaro and Alckmin got interested. But PT-PSDB are classic political rivals and such coallition would be impossible. PSDB has also changed along the years and now is more controlled by the João Doria wing, which is a person who Alckmin dislikes.

Alckmin was rooting for Eduardo Leite in the PSDB primaries, but since Doria won, this consolidated the party being different than what it used to be when he was one of its founders. There is a perception Doria only has ambition and power-hunger for the sake of it. Also, PSDB has shrieked from a top 2 biggest political force to something almost irrelevant in the federal scenario, with their candidate currently polling with 2%. Even if the party is the natural preference of São Paulo, it’s less interesting to be in it if they lose influence federally, as the center-right collapsed in order to give space to a more populist far-right represented by Bolsonaro.

So Alckmin, who is in the moderate right and knows it’s either Lula or Bolsonaro winning, was interested in being Lula’s VP in order to defeat Bolsonaro and to also ascend to the highest federal position he ever had since he was already Governor/Mayor, everything but president. He ran in 2006 and 2018 but lost both times. And for Lula/PT is also interesting in order to bring those moderate right voters who dislike Bolsonaro but also dislike PT. It could be specially good for them in interior areas of São Paulo, where PSDB always dominated, as the presence of Alckmin would be reassuring to them.

That meant Alckmin had to move somewhat to the left in order to be Lula’s VP and join a center-left party in order for the “union” to be viable. And that’s what he did. PSB is now kinda the big-tent bland party that people don’t see as much ideological (PSOL is way too “woke”; PT defined by Lula image; PDT with Ciro increasingly pushed to the Labour-nationalism of Brizola/Vargas; etc) but enough to prove your alliance to the left and that people would be okay with getting the VP slot.

Marcelo Freixo otoh, has always tried to be Rio mayor since 2012 but ended in 2nd place. Even if PSOL got to be major left force in Rio, party also has consolidated rejection among sectors it shouldn’t have, as they are a left party (which means they should appeal more to the working class interests, regardless if progressive or conservative). But the PSOL is actually stronger among city “elites”. PSOL is probably the most ideological party we have in the middle of parties that have to be cold pragmatic in order to gain influence. PSOL always favored decisions that would be ideologically consistent over decisions that could expand their base or soften their image (alliances with other parties for example, were always treated as something bad).

PSOL intransigence and internal divisions regarding political strategies made it hard for Freixo to be in, as he wants to run for Governor this time. Mind you, an extremely harsher election than Mayor, which he never won. The interior of Rio can be way more conservative than the actual city. If PSOL was always a barrier for his elections, he needed to join a more moderate party that welcomes the broad alliances Freixo defends. It’s also a way of signaling to Lula, which will likely support Freixo candidature in Rio now. PT isn’t much strong in Rio anyway, PDT and PSOL are the main left parties in the State, so that’s also not a hard decision for Lula or PT anyway. But if we’re talking about São Paulo, where PT is the main force in the left… Things change.

So those were some of the reasons for party changes recently. I think people abroad are more used to a political culture that is party-driven, where people have to adapt into the interests of the party. Which makes them very confused when they learn not everywhere works like this. Here, the citizens vote more for a candidate/leader than for a party and that reflects on parties being something that should fit the individuals instead of the opposite, as a piece of clothing. You can like one better in a moment but in the future be inclined to believe something different will call more attention or make you look better.

[Red Velvet]

Doria now wants to give up on running (polls show him with 2%). Crisis on PSDB, after a very bitter primary between him and Eduardo Leite.

Eduardo Leite was considering leaving the party to join PSD and run anyway, but if Doria really gives up then maybe Leite will stay in the party and actually be it’s presidential option?

First openly Gay presidential Candidate? Even if he’s from PSDB, it would be cool to at least have him running just for the sake of it although I’m sure I am not prepared to the homophobic attacks that I fear there will definetely be (from the Bolsonaro camp) in the actual campaign.

[Red Velvet]

News about Moro giving up on his presidential run in order to run for the Senate are also coming out. They say he may leave PODEMOS and join UNIÃO BRASIL (Fusion between DEM and PSL)

[Red Velvet]

The party-swap window (the one month time available on election years for elected congressmen to swap parties without being forced to give up on their mandate) has ended. This year it was between March 3rd and April 1st.

That means everyone who wanted to change parties already did it. Just to show how common of a thing it is, this year 23% of the elected congresspeople changed parties this time.

That’s 120 people out of the 513 congress composition. Parties don’t mean that much here in an ideological sense, there are tons of them and anyone can find something similar-ish if they think it’s a good opportunity.

[Red Velvet]

IPESPE poll is the first one now that Moro is out of the race. Reminder that Moro left PODEMOS and joined UNIÃO BRASIL, a party where their big leaders said he’s only welcomed to run for congress lol

Anyway, this is the poll result:

Lula (PT) 44%
Bolsonaro (PL) 30%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 9%
João Doria (PSDB) 3%
Simone Tebet (MDB) 2%
André Janones (AVANTE) 1%

Runoff Scenarios (the sum doesn’t reach 100% because blank/nulls/wouldn’t vote/undecided answers are also counted):

Lula 53% vs Bolsonaro 33%
Lula 52% vs Ciro Gomes 25%
Lula 55% vs João Doria 20%
Ciro Gomes 47% vs Bolsonaro 37%
Bolsonaro 39% vs João Doria 38%

[Red Velvet]

Lula is the favorite but Bolsonaro still has chances. But he needs:

1. Economic improvement (2022 has been showing this slightly, but inflation still is very high and average person purchasing power low)
2. Make the election about cultural issues instead somehow. The talk about communism is worthless when the economy isn’t great and you’re the incumbent, but talk of the left turning kids gay? Maybe.

Lula recently voiced his support for the right of women to have an abortion which feels kinda groundbreaking and makes me happy but also really really worried.

People need to have in mind that even if the left can be stronger in LatAm because of economic reasons, it’s culturally more conservative than the west in general. And in the specific matter of abortion, I think Brazil tends to be even more conservative than some other LatAm countries…

If I had an image stereotype of Brazilians it would the fake-prudish “Do what I say, don’t do what I do” people who are actually pretty liberal but even more ashamed of it, as religion does have a significant impact. Even people who would do an abortion or let their partners do it are kinda scandalized by the notion of legalizing abortion.

Gay marriage and LGBT issues were one issue easy to advance with and I’m sure legalization of Marijuana will soon be one too. These are issues more related to individual rights only, so even people who are against can’t bring themselves to care much to the point of generalized and organized opposition.

But abortion? To many people that will sound like heresy from hell or something. I do think the scenario is better nowadays (thanks to places like Colombia, Argentina and Uruguay recently being trailblazers on the matter), but it would still cause an earthquake if it happened so that’s the kind of comment from Lula that the Bolsonaro camp could explore in order to keep and maybe get back or even gain culturally conservative voters (which is most people tbh, including many leftists).

[Red Velvet]

Regardless, it’s just cool to have the abortion agenda finally advancing on LatAm as a whole. That’s really a more controversial topic for the region in comparison to the world, especially when you look how more progressive we were on other topics. Took a long time, a large contrast to Gay Marriage Map where in Brazil we were ahead than even most European countries by legalizing it on 2013.

Abortion Map:



Gay Marriage Map:

[Red Velvet]

Lula talking points are different from the 00s and reflect the change of times. But it’s not something that has been electorally tested yet, so I’m worried.

On the optimistic side, using his image and power to talk and back these issues will make them reach more people and popularize them with more sectors of the electorate, which is good for the long term.

On the pessimistic, we lose this election because society didn’t change THAT much yet. And then doesn’t matter the long term benefits if in the short term we risk not being a democracy anymore if Bolso is re-elected because change wouldn’t be implemented democratically.

Basically, Lula is having a way more culturally progressive rhetoric instead of simply not talking about that stuff. Besides defending abortion, also said Brazilian elites still retain slave owner mentality and that the middle class has way too large consumption power, bigger than in European countries.

I agree with most of the stuff he is saying (minus the middle class comment, which I think it’s not just stupid electorally, but also factually wrong), but I am worried people aren’t ready yet for this to be a major talking point in an election pushed by a top candidate. I hope he knows what he is doing and that he’s right that there is enough opening to bring this nowadays, because this election is not time to make experimental tests.

Stuff like the Middle class comment though, just comes out to the ears of average person as condescension. Brazilians, including the middle class, don’t see themselves as rich if you compare them to other places in the west so it just sounds to most like the kind of insensitive Paulo Guedes type of comment, as if average Brazilians weren’t entitled to purchasing power. It’s different comment people expect from Lula, when he always defended Brazilians were economically entitled to good stuff.

I think the point he wanted to make might have been different but that’s what most people perceived it to be like.

[Red Velvet]

I think the point he wanted to make might have been different but that’s what most people perceived it to be like.

Presumably he meant that the Brazilian middle class is much richer compared to the working class than in Europe, e.g. the upper middle class in Brazil can afford to have domestic servants.  

Does Brazil use a US (middle income and status, neither poor nor rich) or European (white collar, professional or business owner, income and status above manual workers) definition of middle class?

If it’s regarding having domestic servants and maids I can see the point but that isn’t related to the middle class having higher purchasing power as much as it is about lack of opportunities pushing more people to those jobs while still accepting lower income.

In that case I can see the point he was making, but it’s still more about elevating opportunities for lower income groups so that such jobs become less attractive and less of an option.

But he talked more about owning more than one TV and stuff and that to most people just sounds like he thinks middle class should be poorer instead. And instinctively, I know that is horrible campaign position.

It’s valid to point how there are people owning two TVs while there are people in more precarious situation. But he should be focusing the rhetoric on elevating people’s standard of living instead of reducing it imo. Especially when most Brazilians, from different upper AND lower classes, see themselves as some sort of middle class only because usually there are people in better and worse situation as them.

I liked Lula rhetoric more when he talked more about everyone having the right to have a barbecue, stuff like that. Always more exciting to focus on elevating people’s life standard than saying people need to reduce it. Especially when he’s not talking about elites or anything but about a very broad group such as the “middle class”.

It’s also not good idea to say to Brazilians they are live in higher standards than Europe on any situation, considering the imaginary (fake or not) that people have of Europe as a developed place.

[Red Velvet]

Lula is the favorite but Bolsonaro still has chances. But he needs:

1. Economic improvement (2022 has been showing this slightly, but inflation still is very high and average person purchasing power low)
2. Make the election about cultural issues instead somehow. The talk about communism is worthless when the economy isn’t great and you’re the incumbent, but talk of the left turning kids gay? Maybe.

Lula recently voiced his support for the right of women to have an abortion which feels kinda groundbreaking and makes me happy but also really really worried.

People need to have in mind that even if the left can be stronger in LatAm because of economic reasons, it’s culturally more conservative than the west in general. And in the specific matter of abortion, I think Brazil tends to be even more conservative than some other LatAm countries…

If I had an image stereotype of Brazilians it would the fake-prudish “Do what I say, don’t do what I do” people who are actually pretty liberal but even more ashamed of it, as religion does have a significant impact. Even people who would do an abortion or let their partners do it are kinda scandalized by the notion of legalizing abortion.

Gay marriage and LGBT issues were one issue easy to advance with and I’m sure legalization of Marijuana will soon be one too. These are issues more related to individual rights only, so even people who are against can’t bring themselves to care much to the point of generalized and organized opposition.

But abortion? To many people that will sound like heresy from hell or something. I do think the scenario is better nowadays (thanks to places like Colombia, Argentina and Uruguay recently being trailblazers on the matter), but it would still cause an earthquake if it happened so that’s the kind of comment from Lula that the Bolsonaro camp could explore in order to keep and maybe get back or even gain culturally conservative voters (which is most people tbh, including many leftists).

The way you are describing people doesn't make them sound too healthy. I've tried being in various types of relationships with people like that and they end up with me hating them or them hating me.

Lol it’s not to be taken that literally. Just the better way I can paint the societal contradictions. Because I’m used with a lot of conservative in-speech only people.

For example I saw a poll saying >80% of Brazilians thinking being religious makes you a better person, one of the highest in the world, higher than the LatAm countries polled. At the same time, this is the country of Carnaval and I think people in general are more liberal than in many LatAm countries on many stuff (say, Peru for example).

So it’s a contradiction that I think exemplifies that fake-religious type of behavior. There are people that push the narrative this is a very conservative and religious country, others will say people are open-minded, welcoming and liberal. I think neither are accurate representation that tells exactly the full story, because it’s kind of a mix of both notions co-existing lol

[Red Velvet]

The idea that a no-energy center right VP and a “moderate” campaign will excite anyone in Brazil sounds wrong to me, as if western rules were being applied in non-western countries.

If anything, Bolsonaro showed the more energetic you are, the more people hear you. People vote with their emotions, not with their head. Most PSDB ex-voters will still vote for Bolsonaro even if Lula’s VP is Alckmin imo.

[Red Velvet]

They ran against each other in 2006. Alckmin was one of the main PSDB figures from 1988 until 2021 and PT-PSDB have been the top 2 rival parties for the past 30 years or so.

At least until Bolsonaro came along and “stole” PSDB voters, keeping with the trend of the center-right flocking to the hard right. That is the main “circumstance” behind this Lula-Alckmin alliance. With the melting of PSDB and also with the internal partes war of Doria vs most traditional and older members of the party, Alckmin has left it and joined PSB (Brazilian Socialist Party lmao) in order to be Lula’s VP and show this sign of broad unity or something.

The narrative is that Alckmin is compromising by moving left and Lula is compromising by moving right in order of greater good of defeating Bolsonaro. But polls show that isn’t necessary and it’s not like Lula will expand his reach with anti-PT voters because of this.

The reasoning is clearly governability after they get elected, not election viability imo. Same reason why they had Michel Temer as VP (someone who wasn’t known or popular with the public). Because parties in congress are so fragmented, these types of alliances are seen as necessary in order to get stuff done basically.

[Red Velvet]

Yeah, there was definitely a realignment between 2002 and 2006, that lasts until today.

The Lula/PT voter on a national scale is similar to 2006, but very different from the 2002 coallition.

He only became popular with poorer sectors and transformed the Northeast into a safe PT region AFTER his first term.

If you look at 2002 numbers and also from previous elections, you will notice the Northeast wasn’t more pro-PT at all. In fact, the only State Lula LOST in 2002 was Alagoas, which is in the Northeast. It has since gone for PT in all presidential elections.

The PT coallition from 2002 and before was, let’s say, a more urban type of left. Known for wanting change, the cultural progressive type. Back when PT best numbers would be in Rio de Janeiro.

From 2006 onwards, the PT coalition became more working class. They lost some of the “intelectuals” and wealthy support in big cities but in compensation that was replaced by a working class coallition. Which to be very clear, isn’t necessarily progressive. Many can be pretty culturally conservative although that isn’t a rule (ex: many city people are also conservative in that sense).

Alckmin as a VP sounds like the kind of thing that at most would appeal to a very small segment of centrist city voter who already disliked both Lula and Bolsonaro. Electorally, I don’t think it’s much of a strategy.

However, he’s not thinking about the election with Alckmin. He’s thinking about governability AFTER is possible election.

[Red Velvet]

I really think Bolsonaro has less support than Trump in US.

However, he’s clearly the main face of the right nowadays and I don’t see that changing in 2026. Either a new “populist right” face will surge to occupy his space OR he will retain at least the support from now.

But I genuinely don’t see a return to a liberal right in the way PSDB represented in the post-redemocratization moment. This sector of the right is here to stay and what people perceive as “center-right” will keep being unpopular for quite some time.

And since politics is a pendulum thing, even if the left wins this election, the next one and also the one after that… These people will eventually return to power one day. Unless there’s another earthquake like what the 2010s represented, but empowering the liberal sectors of the right, I don’t see that really changing.

One possible side effect is that an increasing number of liberals (real ones, mostly irrelevant in Brazil) will start preferring the left over the right that they always supported since PSDB is basically history at this point. And the left could possibly become more liberal because of this.

It’s interesting because we’re all used to a populist left vs liberal right dynamics but that could maybe change to a liberal left vs populist right now.

[Red Velvet]

The Lula-Alckmin alliance is so cartoonish that it’s a mix of cringe and funny.

Alckmin, who was associated with fascists by PT supporters in the past, now making speeches to unions about Lula being the greatest popular leader Brazil ever had. And people are supposed to buy him being a leftist now.

He’s trying with the pro-worker rhetoric but it sounds so desperate and out of his box that people either don’t buy it or pretend to do it.

Lula is pretty much the standard of liberal left domestically, so I will never understand the image of hard left that some liberals have of him. I guess Brazilian “liberals” are so strongly conservative that any minimal crumble given to lower classes looks like extremism.

It’s funny how this alliance has been attacked by right, left and center for different reasons. The left isn’t comfortable with having to stan Alckmin, only harsh PT supporters who are willing to buy everything Lula does. The “center” (aka liberals) absolutely HATES the idea of this partnership making Lula look like the actual centrist and moderate. And the right (populist Bolsonaro sector) sees is as two different establishment sectors uniting to take out their “anti-establishment” guy Bolsonaro.

[Red Velvet]

New EXAME/IDEIA poll shows Bolsonaro closing the gap on the 1st round.

Scenario with Doria:

Lula (PT) 42%
Bolsonaro (PL) 33%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 10%
João Doria (PSDB) 3%

Scenario with Leite (yup internal fighting even after primaries):

Lula (PT) 43%
Bolsonaro (PL) 34%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 10%
Eduardo Leite (PSDB) 4%

Everyone else has either 1% or less than that. Now with Sergio Moro out of the race, it’s natural to Bolsonaro to go up as he is the closest option to inherit his voters.

Last poll from this institute from 1 month ago included all of Moro (dropped out) and Leite and Doria (still a bit uncertain who will be PSDB candidate even if most likely it’s Doria). It was:

Lula 40%
Bolsonaro 29%
Sérgio Moro 9%
Ciro Gomes 9%
Eduardo Leite 2%
João Doria 1%