Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Red Velvet]

CNI poll asked Brazilians about their opinion regarding the country economy currently:

1% Ótima (Great)
7% Boa (Good)
21% Regular (Regular/Normal)
23% Ruim (Bad)
47% Péssima (Awful)

That’s 70% with a Negative perception and only 8% with a Positive perception.

Regarding opinion about inflation:

73% say prices are rising
15% say prices are staying the same
8% say prices are reducing
3% Don’t Know

75% of Brazilians say they were affected or very affected by the rise of the prices. 10% on the other hand say they weren’t affected or that they were affected only a little bit by inflation.

[Red Velvet]

There is an internal conflict inside PSOL regarding to having an own candidate or endorsing Lula already in the first round. The pro-Lula wing was stronger few months ago, but since the suggestion of a Lula/Alckmin ticket appeared, the wing supporting the own candidate became stronger.
If PSOL has its own candidate, probably this candidate will have between 3 and 5%, and it would be very hard for Lula to win already in the first round.

Surely after the Dilma impeachment and Temer presidency, Lula wouldn't actually pick a non-PT member to be VP?? Seems like it would be a massive mistake unless they absolutely need it to win, which it doesn't look like they do.

Oh you clearly don’t grasp how big of an ego Lula has.

He probably just blames what happened on Dilma’s political inability and her disgust in regards interacting with the crooks from “Centrão”. He thinks he’s immune to the kind of sh**t that happened with her because he’s all about trying to make everyone “happy” through compromise in order to be popular with the most amount of people possible.

And he manages to do it in a way that really makes everyone think he really IS in their side instead of the usual centrists who try to do this and manage to anger everyone. That’s because Lula actually talks and feels like a real person instead of a career politicians with prepared speech. He manages to sell paternalistic affection through his discourse that people buy regardless of ideologies.

In a past interview he talked about wanting to help “unite” evangelicals and the LGBT community with a both sides type of argument as if these groups were standing on equal footing and wasn’t a matter of one (evangelicals) attacking and the other reacting to people wanting to restrict their rights.

The first thing Lula will want is to have a center-right/right name even though polls show he doesn’t need it, to signal to the market and business leaders and push them to his side in order to have government stability during his full term (it’s not just about the election). He will give these people some seats in his government exactly like he did it in his 1st, alongside the parties who back his candidacy and coast as this national conciliator and peacemaker.

His VP is looking like it will be Alckmin (PSDB presidential candidate in 2006 and 2018 who is now leaving the party) and the PSOL kids are pretending to act shocked when the reason the party even exists is because there were PT left-wing dissidents after 2002 that were angry about Lula behaving like a centrist more and more. They left PT to start a more left-wing party that became PSOL.

However PSOL has transformed from a more left-wing option that it originally was to be now more associated with their focus on social-issue policies and their young university crowd of voters. And these last years made them more open to shift from their Anti-PT stance to be submissive to Lula again.

Brazilian left is domesticated (and traumatized) enough to buy his neoliberal speech mixed with some social democratic and social justice policy signaling in order to keep the base happy. That already feels like a victory though, even if the left has room to achieve much more. Because I’m honestly more against the crazy and radical Brazilian right (ideologues who would privatize their mother and transform the country in 1st fundamentalist Christian country dominated by churches) than I’m necessarily in favor of the left.

[Red Velvet]

New IPEC poll (One of the 2 most reliable Brazilian pollsters alongside Datafolha):

Lula (PT) 48%
Bolsonaro (PL) 21%
Sérgio Moro (PODEMOS) 6%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 5%
André Janones (AVANTE) 2%
João Doria (PSDB) 2%
Cabo Daciolo (PMN-BRASIL35) 1%
Simone Tebet (MDB) 1%
Null/Blanks 9%
Don’t Know 5%

Valid votes exclude null/blanks and abstentions so that’s already a 1st round outright win for Lula with over 50% of the valid vote.

Lula performs his best with:
- Northeast voters (63%)
- People living in the peripheral areas of the capitals (55%)
- Catholics (54%)

Bolsonaro performs his best with:
- Evangelicals (33%)
- North/Center-West voters (29%)
- South voters (27%)

Moro performs his best with:
- South voters (11%)

IPEC also released Brazilians opinion of the Bolsonaro government:

Great or Good 19%
Regular 25%
Bad or Awful 55%
Don’t Know 1%

When asking just whether they approve or not Bolsonaro’s way of governing:

Approve 27%
Disapprove 68%
Don’t Know 4%

About Brazilians trust on their president:

Trust 27%
Don’t Trust 70%
Don’t Know 3%

[Red Velvet]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1471152420499689472

How the Bolsonaro 2018 voter will migrate according to the IPEC poll. Only 45% of his original voters plan to vote for him again.

[Red Velvet]

NEW Datafolha poll coming right from the oven:

Lula 48%
Bolsonaro 22%
Sérgio Moro 9%
Ciro Gomes 7%
João Doria 4%
Blank/null 8%
Don’t Know 2%

Very close numbers to IPEC, showing that this is the actual scenario. Also indicates a Lula outright victory on the 1st round, if you count only the valid votes.

[Red Velvet]

Datafolha, December 13th-16th 2021

Partisan preference
PT 28%
PSDB 2%
MDB 2%
PDT 1%
PSOL 1%
PL 1%
No preferred party 54%

Only PT has preference. The others are tied with zero in the margin of error.
Most of the people who have no preferred party is right-wing.

Highest result for PT since 2013, which is when those street protests started and their preference started to fall. In April 2012 they had 31%, nearly one third of Brazilians being declared PT supporters.

Even in their lowest, during the last 8 years, they still easily maintained the #1 position though. In March 2015 and December 2016 PT preference reached 9%, their lowest in the century and their personal lowest since 1989. But even then that was still enough to be higher than any other parties since none of them has an actual organized base lol.

People who prefer the PT in the last 10 years:

April 2012 - 31%
March 2013 - 29%
June 2013 - 19% (month of the bus fare protests and start of all of Brazil’s following political chaos)
March 2015 - 9%
December 2016 - 9%
April 2017 - 15%
October 2017 - 19%
April 2018 - 20%
August 2018 - 24%
July 2021 - 22%
September 2021 - 23%
December 2021 - 28%

PT has consistently always led those polls since 1999. The only thing it means is that the left is tied to PT, while the right is more fluid. Which we already got to see with all the PSDB presidential vote draining in 2018 and their voters flocking to Bolsonaro.

I don’t know why the right hates PT so much when they’re the biggest thing stopping a leftist movement to gain traction lol. The left would never go crazy and “adventurous” when it’s so tied to PT. Meanwhile normal right-wing voters showed they can vote for crazy evil barbecue uncle.

[Red Velvet]

The right hate the PT primarily because it stops them being in power more.

Not much more to it than that I think.

Yeah, but that’s more their fault for being disorganized and anti-partisan/anti-politics? PSDB was big center-right party and led country in the 90s with satisfactory results and yet they were easily dumped and some people who used to vote for them now act like they were centrists or leftists just because they don’t behave in a crazy way like evil barbecue uncle lmao

There was way more right-wing stuff being passed in the 90s structurally than in Bolsonaro’s government, who’s mostly all far-right in style and rhetoric but in practice it’s the weakest government in ages, sucking up to Centrão (aka: the corrupt establishment) on most things in order to politically survive. And centrão will still likely dump him in the 2nd semester of this year simply because it’s more politically convenient, as they aren’t loyal to any ideological matter other than their self-interests.

I guess people care way too much about “identity” than actual policies, because Bolsonaro did no major significant change, especially economically. Whoever sells the idea of a ~right-wing club~ that people can belong to (almost an attempt of mimicking the popular support PT had/has and what they represent to the left) gets so easily embraced.

I honestly don’t feel like the left in Brazil is super-competent or strong or anything, but they largely benefit from the right being a mess and having no real message to sell other than being against the left.

I don’t even feel there was an actual “conservative wave” in 2010s in the sense people started supporting these radical right-wing policies, it was more backlash and resentment against PT. Conservatism is more tied to being “anti-PT” than actually supporting conservative stuff, which is why the right cannot properly organize itself more structurally. They only win nowadays if population mood wants to punish the PT.

Which frankly, I am not a fan of. I hate that if you have any criticism of PT (and there are very valid ones in the middle of the bullsh**t ones) you’re seen as a right-winger lol. Even PSOL is having to suck up to them, it just kills any alternative of a more incisive left-wing option.

I am one who is not that much of a fan of PT being so powerful and yet I blame the right-wingers for that, for being so incompetent and desperate in their hate against PT that they ALWAYS make this party the protagonist of everything in the country. The exaggerated insurrection against them since 2018, which impeached Dilma, jailed Lula and later elected Bolsonaro is all stuff that made the party stronger in the long term after a time that some level of backlash was called for.

PT is in a weird sense, lucky to have the enemies they have. Authoritarian, dumb and who are only able to think in short-term goals.

[Red Velvet]

IPESPE (pro-market, ordered by XP investments) poll:

Lula 44%
Bolsonaro 24%
Moro 9%
Ciro 7%
Doria 2%
Tebet/Pacheco/Dávila, each one has 1%
Blank/Null 6%
Don’t Know 7%


Runoff scenarios (valid votes):

Lula 64% vs Bolsonaro 36%
Lula 61% vs Sérgio Moro 39%
Lula 67% vs Ciro Gomes 33%
Lula 73% vs João Doria 27%
Ciro Gomes 56% vs Bolsonaro 44%
João Doria 55% vs Bolsonaro 45%
Sérgio Moro 55% vs Bolsonaro 45%

[Red Velvet]

Following Pedro Sanchez's example, Lula considered the possibility to change the labor reform implemented by Temer's administration 2017. This reform weakened labor protection and increased the possibility of temporary employment. Unemployment is still at 13%, and it is becoming clear the growth is more important than "flexible" labor market in order to create more jobs.
Until some few days ago, Lula seemed to don't look for a left-wing economic agenda. It looked like that he was looking for the non leftist generic anti-Bolsonaro vote.
But he made a move to the left this weak.

Lula sometimes move to the left, sometimes to the center, sometimes to the left... since he is in politics, in 1978

I hope the anti-PT leftists keep trashing him as centrist neoliberal (I agree it’s kind of a reach, but there is some little truth to it as well) in order to assure he really has a more left platform lol. That’s why it’s important to have internal competition, otherwise the candidate gets lazy and assumes they have the automatic support of a sector no matter what and naturally they will try to get the support of the other side through a bunch of compromises.

I really liked Lula’s government but he and zero other politicians get me to be grateful for doing their jobs, as some PT more radical fans act like everyone should be lol.

[Red Velvet]

IPESPE (pro-market, ordered by XP investments) poll:

Lula 44%
Bolsonaro 24%
Moro 9%
Ciro 7%
Doria 2%
Tebet/Pacheco/Dávila, each one has 1%
Blank/Null 6%
Don’t Know 7%


Runoff scenarios (valid votes):

Lula 64% vs Bolsonaro 36%
Lula 61% vs Sérgio Moro 39%
Lula 67% vs Ciro Gomes 33%
Lula 73% vs João Doria 27%
Ciro Gomes 56% vs Bolsonaro 44%
João Doria 55% vs Bolsonaro 45%
Sérgio Moro 55% vs Bolsonaro 45%

Damn with results like that the Bolsonaro precincts that do exist would have to be REALLY awful.

2022 will be a landslide, Lula could maybe win almost all states like he did in 2002 (when he only lost in Alagoas to PSDB). Funny because after his election the Northeast, where Alagoas is located, became a reliable PT stronghold, with all the states from the region always voting for PT, including Alagoas.

I think the states where Bolsonaro should probably be in his strongest for 2022 are Roraima, Acre, Rondônia (all in the North region, with some of the lowest population numbers of the country meaning they don’t make much of a difference in the end result) and Santa Catarina (in the South region). And even then it’s not completely “safe” he wins in all of them at all. But assuming his campaign helps revive him to some smaller degree, which is very possible I guess, I would predict something like this atm:



And that still feels like a more optimistic scenario for Bolsonaro tbh. In a more optimistic scenario for Lula, it could easily become all red like I mentioned, mirroring 2002.

These were 2018 results for comparison btw:

[Red Velvet]

I believe Lula will win, but not by this margin the polls are showing now. I don't think he will repeat 2002 and 2006 margin (61-39). The left always does better in polls conducted many months before the vote, because more left-wing people care for politics when it is not campaign time. The right usually grows in the final weaks.
I think Lula will win like 55-45 in the runoff against Bolsonaro all other right-wing candidates. I think Lula will win all the states Haddad won in 2018 plus Amazonas, Amapá, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul and Rio de Janeiro. Maybe São Paulo and Espírito Santo. But I am almost sure the right will hold Paraná, Santa Catarina, all the Center-West, Acre, Rondônia, Roraima.

Distrito Federal hates Bolsonaro, so them too. And I would put Goiás in the middle of the balance as well, probably being the most toss-up one alongside Mato Grosso do Sul and (lol) Paraná although I think those two could eventually go to Bolsonaro. What you say about the right having some growth in final weeks could be true (we saw Crivella lowering his defeat from 70% to something like 65% in 2020) but we also saw Dilma gaining ground in the last minute of the 2014 elections.

What happens imo is not a politicized left-right last minute vote, but the fact that people who pay less attention to politics, generally lower levels of education, make their decisions in the last minute more often. In Rio 2020 that naturally helped Crivella because of his appeal with religious groups in lower income neighborhoods of the city. In Brazil 2014 that helped Dilma because the PT naturally has more appeal with lower education groups than with PSDB.

In Brazil 2022 it’s just hard to predict who will benefit from this because you could make an argument from both Lula or Bolsonaro because of the different sides of populism. However, with the economy weak with no prospects of getting better this year, I am guessing it’s actually Lula who will benefit from this last minute bump. I am assuming Bolsonaro could regain some ground maybe with the campaign (still not quite sold, but very possible), but Lula would get most of those last minute voters and easily win with >60% in an eventual runoff (assuming it doesn’t end in 1st round).

It’s not even merit of the left or anything. People just really hate Bolsonaro now because they see him as incompetent. The ideological discussion lost way too much ground since 2018 with the average people, very few care anymore because they’re exhausted and just want to eat at this point.

Lula areas for 2022:
Northeast region
Southeast region
Amazonas, Pará, Amapá, Tocantins
Rio Grande do Sul
Distrito Federal

The most toss-up like ones:
Paraná (lol, I know but goes in line with the trend)
Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás

Bolsonaro areas for 2022:
Roraima, Acre, Rondônia
Santa Catarina
Mato Grosso

In the more optimistic Bolsonaro scenario, I think he can get these I’m listing as a toss-up but I really doubt he wins any of these “Lula” states.

[Red Velvet]

I believe Lula will win, but not by this margin the polls are showing now. I don't think he will repeat 2002 and 2006 margin (61-39). The left always does better in polls conducted many months before the vote, because more left-wing people care for politics when it is not campaign time. The right usually grows in the final weaks.
I think Lula will win like 55-45 in the runoff against Bolsonaro all other right-wing candidates. I think Lula will win all the states Haddad won in 2018 plus Amazonas, Amapá, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul and Rio de Janeiro. Maybe São Paulo and Espírito Santo. But I am almost sure the right will hold Paraná, Santa Catarina, all the Center-West, Acre, Rondônia, Roraima.

Distrito Federal hates Bolsonaro, so them too. And I would put Goiás in the middle of the balance as well, probably being the most toss-up one alongside Mato Grosso do Sul and (lol) Paraná although I think those two could eventually go to Bolsonaro. What you say about the right having some growth in final weeks could be true (we saw Crivella lowering his defeat from 70% to something like 65% in 2020) but we also saw Dilma gaining ground in the last minute of the 2014 elections.

What happens imo is not a politicized left-right last minute vote, but the fact that people who pay less attention to politics, generally lower levels of education, make their decisions in the last minute more often. In Rio 2020 that naturally helped Crivella because of his appeal with religious groups in lower income neighborhoods of the city. In Brazil 2014 that helped Dilma because the PT naturally has more appeal with lower education groups than with PSDB.

In Brazil 2022 it’s just hard to predict who will benefit from this because you could make an argument from both Lula or Bolsonaro because of the different sides of populism. However, with the economy weak with no prospects of getting better this year, I am guessing it’s actually Lula who will benefit from this last minute bump. I am assuming Bolsonaro could regain some ground maybe with the campaign (still not quite sold, but very possible), but Lula would get most of those last minute voters and easily win with >60% in an eventual runoff (assuming it doesn’t end in 1st round).

It’s not even merit of the left or anything. People just really hate Bolsonaro now because they see him as incompetent. The ideological discussion lost way too much ground since 2018 with the average people, very few care anymore because they’re exhausted and just want to eat at this point.

Lula areas for 2022:
Northeast region
Southeast region
Amazonas, Pará, Amapá, Tocantins
Rio Grande do Sul
Distrito Federal

The most toss-up like ones:
Paraná (lol, I know but goes in line with the trend)
Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás

Bolsonaro areas for 2022:
Roraima, Acre, Rondônia
Santa Catarina
Mato Grosso

In the more optimistic Bolsonaro scenario, I think he can get these I’m listing as a toss-up but I really doubt he wins any of these “Lula” states.

Polls of early 2014 were showing the possibility of Dilma Rousseff winning in the first round
https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pesquisas_de_opini%C3%A3o_da_elei%C3%A7%C3%A3o_presidencial_no_Brasil_em_2014
More recent elections: in mid 2020, polls were showing Manuela d'Ávila leading in Porto Alegre, Coser leading in Vitória, and Edmílson holding a much higher margin in Belém than he really had. The exception was Guilherme Boulos in São Paulo, who was not polling well. But he wasn't a very well known candidate.

I don’t think this is a right-left thing though, more a name recognition thing where candidates more known tend to have an advantage before the campaign properly begins.

In 2014 for example, you see that Dilma only wins in 1st round so easily not because she has big vote intention or anything, but because her opponents have much lower vote than what they ended up getting after the campaign.

Dilma had big name recognition as the president, Marina had lesser but some as a past candidate while people didn’t know who Aécio was on the national level although he benefited from being PSDB candidate (in the last year that was relevant lol). That’s what these polls reflect.

Early polls / 1st round result comparison

Dilma: ~35% - 40% / 37,6%
Marina: ~25% - 30% / 19,3%
Aécio: ~15% - 20% / 30,3%

So Dilma actually did about what was expected from her. What happened more during the campaign was that Aécio gained on name recognition while also absorbing some of the Marina vote. But that should’ve been expected considering he was the least known candidate of the three while still having a big machine like the one from PSDB that allowed him to get big exposure when the campaign actually started.

2018 is very different because both Bolsonaro and Lula are candidates with extremely high name recognition, so I don’t think either can get much benefit from campaign exposure as people already know who they are and are likely to have a formed opinion on them.

[Red Velvet]

How would Bolsonaro react to a defeat? Could we see events unfolding looking like a redux of the 2020 transition period in the US? I don't know enough to say how credible polling in Brazil is and there's still about 10 months left, but it appears Bolsonaro is pretty much done.

Pretty credible from IPEC and Datafolha, more than most US polling imo. Other institutes are mostly good too even with some small level of bias.

He’s not done because campaign doesn’t start until the second semester of the year and who knows what can happen until then? Imagine if the economy miraculously gained a boost and people started feeling the effects for example. I agree it’s highly unlikely Bolsonaro wins anything but zero elections are over 9 months before they happen.

His reaction to a loss would be leaving the country, if I had to guess? Good riddance, although it sounds too good to be true.


https://www.twitter.com/UrbanNathalia/status/1481599555108065289

[Red Velvet]

It’s also good not to dismiss the Bolsonaro hidden machine of fake news, which will only kick out during campaign. News from this week said his son Carlos wanted to buy a spy softaware used by dictatorships, in order to help in these elections.

[Red Velvet]

“Very left wing voters” = very online social progressives way too obsessed with woke signaling, I’m guessing? I really doubt anyone else cares about US politics or Glenn Greenwald positions, things that aren’t really relevant to Brazil at all.

If anything, the real criticism I saw about David was his lower profile on the chamber, as if he was only a pretty face who lacked energy. Voted for David in 2018 when he was in PSOL and could maybe do it again in PDT (haven’t decided yet) since everyone is leaving PSOL to go to PT/PSB/PDT/etc.

Always voted for PSOL in legislative but it really looks the party could be disappearing due to multiple effects (internal divisions about being pro-Lula or not, rise of the % voting new requirement, members dissatisfied with lack of pragmatism, etc). Marcelo Freixo left, Jean Wylys left, David Miranda left and I think others could too.

IMO, the thing with PSOL is that it always positioned itself as the opposition to Lula/PT “from the left” and they’ve been going through an identity crisis since Bolsonaro on whether to be pro-Lula for the “better good” or maintain the old spirit from their foundation, when Heloísa Helena always brought very strong anti-PT rhetoric. And it really is looking like the pro-Lula faction is bigger, with the anti-PT ones being concentrated on the MES internal ideological line from PSOL.

Shifting to be a pro-PT party brings a question mark about PSOL future that we don’t really know what could lead to in the future, because we won’t have a strong left-wing party contesting PT, which could possibly leave PT without having to worry about competition from the left, making them unchecked. We would lose that counterbalance.

I see some of those anti-PT leftist voters like David going to PDT because of Ciro Gomes and his proposals, but the party is way too heterogenous to work as a real left-wing counterbalance. It’s not a party where I feel the confidence voting for in the legislative without having to worry about my vote helping push more “suspicious” elements. I didn’t even vote for PT because of that and PDT has way more of these people. PSOL was the only party where I could feel some level of confidence on that regard, even if they aren’t infallible either.

So let’s wait and see. I will wait for the campaign to start to see the names running from PSOL in Rio to see if there’s someone I really like but I’m not really excited to vote for the party anymore with all the internal confusion and divide, since Freixo left. I could see myself maybe voting for PDT with David inside because before it’s not like they previously had any big name to rally behind. Like most Ciro voters, I think the sympathy for PDT comes more because of Ciro himself being the current face of the party than anything to do with the members of the party, which is why it’s cool to have some new fresh names to consider now joining it.

I’m already trying to come up with a voting strategy here in Rio…

President: Ciro Gomes (PDT) if Lula is <45% in the final polling; Lula (PT) if he is >45% in the final polling

Governor: Marcelo Freixo (PSB), the easiest one to have no doubts about

Senate: Whoever from PDT/PSB/PT/PSOL/REDE that has better numbers in the polls. I hope one of these parties puts a high profile figure who has competitive chances. Senate is the election which envolves the most pragmatism because a divide is extremely prejudicial as there isn’t a runoff, so I will likely go with the flow.

Federal Congress: Someone from PDT or PSOL

State Congress: Someone from PSOL or PT. Maybe REDE too, if there’s a cool option.

[Red Velvet]

Election Calendar (Debates + Election Days)

Band debate: August 4th
CNN debate: August 6th
Jovem Pan debate: August 9th
RedeTV debate: September 2nd
SBT debate: To be scheduled, usually just before or after RedeTV one
Record debate: To be scheduled, usually after SBT or RedeTV one
Rede Globo debate: To be scheduled, usually after Record one

Election Day: October 2nd

CNN debate: October 3rd
Runoff debates from other networks: To be scheduled

Runoff Election Day (if there is one): October 30th

[Red Velvet]

David will have a very tough election in PDT/RJ. It is one of the only States that the party has a real tradition. But undoubtably his chances are higher than in PSOL/RJ (that I believe will have to rebuild itself or will implode and lose importance in relation to other PSOL in other states).

Not sure. On one hand, PSOL in Rio is actually best party for someone in the left to get elected but they lost Freixo and it’s not like I expect their number of seats to rise up. In Rio, PDT is the second best electoral option although with Lula in 2022 I expect them to get a bump not only in Rio but the whole country. In 2018 we elected in Rio for Federal congress:

- 4 from PSOL (#4 got 24k votes)
- 2 from PDT (#2 got 25k votes)
- 1 from PSB (#1 got 227k votes)
- 1 from PT (#1 got 44k votes)
- 1 from PCdoB (#1 got 71k votes)

David was #5 from PSOL (getting 17k votes), replacing PSOL’s #4 after he left the country due to intimidations from Bolsonaro supporters. That was a strong election for PSOL, getting record number of seats in Rio because of Freixo huge amount of votes helping push more people. I expect PSOL to decrease in seats as PT and PDT steal the “polarization in the left” and PSOL loses key figures to other parties.

Meanwhile, PSB, PT and PCdoB elected only 1 person with had huge amount of votes (Molon, Benedita and Jandira). This shows these people concentrate the votes in their parties, showing that it’s the candidate that is strong in Rio, not the party. PSB and PCdoB are especially weak for not pushing anyone else with those huge amount of votes for their top candidates. PT too but to a lesser degree, clearly not as bad as the other two.

While PDT elected 2 people with low amount of votes (#1 had 26k and #2 had 25k). This shows that the non-elected PDT candidates had a decent showing which elevated the party number of votes, assuring them to get more seats. Unlike the others, the party is stronger than the individual candidates in Rio particularly.

So considering PSOL melting (although it will still probably elect more people, internal competition in PSOL is also bigger) and the fact PDT is a strong option where you can get elected with lesser votes because of the party strength, I don’t think it’s impossible at all.

It will be hard though. I think some people who voted for him in 2018 won’t now because he’s out of PSOL and the Rio average type of PSOL voter likes to vote for PSOL. On the other hand, David is definitely way more known today than he was in 2018 (before Vaza-Jato and before having a national profile), which tends to propel you. He’s kinda perfect default option for that Rio type of Ciro left-wing supporter who votes for PSOL and doesn’t like the legislative options on PDT.

The risk is that he ties himself way too much to Ciro. If Ciro has weak showing (like single digits) in the presidential election, I would say David doesn’t get elected but if Ciro at least repeats 2018 then David has pretty good chances as the main candidate with “leftist” credentials inside PDT-Rio. Same way Duda Salabert performed uncommonly huge in Minas in PDT as an ex-PSOL member. And David doesn’t need to gain that much by staying in PDT considering they elected people with only 25k votes in 2018.

[Red Velvet]

I doubt any of these cares much about politics, for them it makes no difference lol

But generally, football people are generally more right-wing (in Brazil that doesn’t necessarily mean they wouldn’t vote for someone in the left though). Pelé and Neymar included. But I doubt they’re very ideological or anything. Neymar for example gives me vibes he would support anyone who wins or is more popular at the moment because the important it’s being friendly to whoever is in power.

Meanwhile Gisele Bundchen gives me anti-Bolsonaro centrist vibes, maybe leaning a bit to the left these days because of how awful Bolsonaro is.

I guess the stereotype is:

Athletes from Football and to a lesser extent Volley, especially if they’re men —> Right

Artists from TV, theater or involved on other cultural sector, especially if they’re women —> Left

All with exceptions of course.

[Red Velvet]

Some state level polls

Bahia, January 19-22nd, Opnus
President: Lula 59%, Bolsonaro 21%, Moro 5%, Ciro 4%
Governor: ACM Neto 52%, Jaques Wagner 29%

Goiás, January 21-24th, Serpes/Acieg
President: Lula 40%, Bolsonaro 27,8%, Moro 8,1%, Ciro 2,5%
Governor: Caiado 37,1%, Perillo 14,1%, Medanha 13%

In Bahia, the poll showed a result similar to 2018. Maybe, in the Northeast, PT has already achieved its peak in 2006/2010/2014/2018. Maybe, there is no room to swing even more to the left.
In Goiás, the polls is showing a big swing. Goiás is a very conservative state and Bolsonaro won a landslide there in 2018.

From the Center-West it’s the one I expected to go for Lula first, so I wouldn’t say it’s that conservative. This idea probably comes from their stereotype of “country” people who aren’t educated on social issues/ Sertanejo culture. Goiás (GO) is the most likely to go for Lula, then MS and then MT. The only thing in the Center-West/Goiás that may push it to Bolsonaro is the Agro influence but even that is more limited than say, in Rondônia and Mato Grosso

The ones I think are really conservative nowadays are Rondônia, Acre and Roraima, on the North tbh. Alongside with maybe Santa Catarina in the South. These are the ones in which Bolsonaro had >70% in 2018 and theoretically should be the favorite, although for different reasons.

Roraima is the lowest populated state in the country, with very few people living there while also the one state which borders Venezuela, basically making it be the only place in the country where people feel the effects of immigration since the majority of immigrants stay there near their country.

Rondônia stereotype is basically logging and forest fires at this point and a lot of that has to do with a true strong Agro influence in that state. Even if all the country shifts to vote for Lula, I bet Rondônia would be the last to shift although it would be a close competition with Roraima.

PT has had successes in Acre before but they appear to have shifted to be very anti-PT after internal issues in the state after PT governing the state it seems? Not sure exactly but it looks like it will take some time before PT gains trust there, although Lula is a completely different thing so you never know. The advance of evangelical religion could maybe have an influence too.

And Santa Catarina is basically white people who are economically right-wing. But considering those hate incompetence, it’s easier to see them maybe shifting before the other three. That said, they definetely would be the last in the South/Southeast regions, PT would shift in car-wash heaven that was Paraná before they would in Santa Catarina.

Paraná in some ways gives me São Paulo interior vibes, so if São Paulo gets a significant PT victory (instead of a narrow PT victory), I could see them shift though.

[Red Velvet]

Except Distrito Federal, which used to vote on the left of the country until 2002, the other 3 states in the Center-West voted on the right of the country in every presidential election since 1989.
But you are correct: usually they don't vote too much on the right, like Acre, Roraima, Rondônia and Santa Catarina. Since 2002, São Paulo votes on the right of the Center-West.

Goiás is way more urbanized than Mato Grosso and Rondônia, two states that have parts of the Amazon inside then and where there’s more pressure to expand agricultural areas. And Mato Grosso do Sul has some similarities with the interior of São Paulo/Paraná in terms of sharing developed areas, besides the regular “countryside and rural” idea we tend to have of the center-west as a whole.

Goiás is the easiest one in center-west to go for Lula and there are polls per region pointing that the center-west is already mostly for Lula… That’s why I predicted Goiás (most populated one in the region) to go for Lula, when it’s harder for me to see that coming from MS and especially MT.

Center-West is the lowest populated region in the country (although the North is the least densely populated), with only 16,7 M people. But most of these people are in Goiás. So the center-west going for PT in the polls was always an indication coming from Goiás. It wouldn’t be from Mato Grosso.

Center-West region:
43,1% live in Goiás
21,4% live in Mato Grosso
18,5% live in Distrito Federal (Federal District)
17,0% live in Mato Grosso do Sul

Which means GO + DF is what decides what goes on there, as they have over 60% of the vote.

[Red Velvet]

Who are DEMOCRATS supporting?

They usually go for the center right, but they seem to have forged a strange coalition recently.

DEM merged with PSL to form a new party, UNIÃO BRASIL (Union Brazil)

They will likely just support Moro or the PSDB candidate (Doria), if I had to guess based on ideological alignment. But they might be pragmatic enough to support Bolsonaro who has bigger vote intention so that they can elect more people. Maybe they would even support Lula if they think his election is inevitable, that way they may assure even more people from their party get elected to congress, but that’s a longshot.

[Red Velvet]

Results of the presidential elections from 1989 to 2018 in the cities (not states) of

São Paulo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXmHOpKk9Gs&t=30s

Rio de Janeiro
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsDnDuRNy20

You can see the full results, and the maps which shows the results in the boroughs.

In São Paulo, the left won only in 2002. The winners were
1989: Covas 1sr round, Collor 2nd round
1994: Fernando Henrique Cardoso
1998: Fernando Henrique Cardoso
2002: Lula
2006: Geraldo Alckmin
2010: José Serra
2014: Aécio Neves
2018: Jair Bolsonaro
PT never won in the wealthiest boroughs in the middle of the city. Even Serra won there in 2002.

In Rio de Janeiro, the right won only in 1994 and 2018. The winners were
1989: Brizola 1st round, Lula 2nd round
1994: Fernando Henrique Cardoso
1998: Lula
2002: Lula
2006: Lula
2010: Dilma Rousseff
2014: Marina Silva 1st round, Dilma Rousseff 2nd round
2018: Jair Bolsonaro

They appear to behave so differently on the surface but they’re actually kinda similar. Rio simply has more low-income areas spread out throughout the city and they’re places where a lot of people live.

The main difference is that ironically, PT is much stronger as a party in São Paulo despite having a better track record in presidential elections in Rio. Thing is that they always ran against PSDB between 1994-2014 and PSDB is even weaker in Rio than PT.

If you look at the elections without PSDB being big, PT also performs poorly in Rio. The most voted candidate in 1989 was Brizola (PDT) in the 1st round, especially in the lower income areas. But since he finished 3rd nationally, his huge amount of votes in Rio migrated to Lula in the runoff.

And then 2018 was the first year where practically all neighborhoods (rich and poor) voted for the right in Rio since PT was fragile and the party was never particularly strong in Rio anyways. It will do better in 2022 due to the rise of anti-Bolsonaro voter, but I have reservations on whether it will do as good in the city like it did when it was put up against PSDB.

In both cities in all years except Rio 2018, where the shift was brutal against PT in poorer areas, you can see the class divide very clearly.

I wish Rodrigo Neves (PDT) would enter in a deal with PSB, PT and all the other left parties to run for senate and leave the path more open for Freixo to be the sole option from the camp in the Governor race. These parties need to start being more strategical and organize properly based on which area who has more chances.

In São Paulo, the unity on the senate should be behind a PT candidate as well. Since Boulos is so popular and would do better at the executive (which requires more excitement if we’re honest) there should be a deal for Boulos (PSOL) to be the option for Governor and Haddad (PT) to be the one to run for Senate. Boulos has shown he attracts the same type of PT voter.

Same thing in Rio where it’s clear that the smart decision is to give open space for Freixo (PSB) to run for governor as the only option on the left and then let a PDT candidate, like Rodrigo Neves, run for the senate as the sole option since the party is naturally stronger in Rio. A PDT+PSOL unity would be such a broad hit in Rio.

But I guess in São Paulo PT is eyeing to run in both Governor and senate, with Haddad in Governor and maybe a Suplicy in Senate because in theory they could be possible victories. I think they should run for senate only with Haddad and then let all the other big names there push a bunch of people to federal congress there. And in Rio, both PSOL and PDT will run candidates for the senate as it’s hard to see an union between those two. Sadly.

[Red Velvet]

Ipespe Poll, February 7th-9th 2022

First round
Lula 43%, Jair Bolsonaro 25%, Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 8%, João Doria 3%, Janones 1%, Tebet 1%
Runoff
Lula 54%, Jair Bolsonaro 31%

Evaluation of Bolsonaro's administration
Good/very good: 24%
Regular: 20%
Bad/very bad: 54%

Comparing to the last poll, Bolsonaro went 1 p up and Lula went 1 p down. This is the variation in the margin of error. The numbers are very stable in the last 4 months.

what is Regular?

Neither approval or disapproval. Or half-approval and half-disapproval. People who may like the government in some stuff but dislike it in others.

It’s good way to not simplify things with only a binary choice. That way, you know that when people say the government is good or bad, you know they really MEAN that.

[Red Velvet]

There’s a general climate of “Lula has already won” that is actually good for Bolsonaro because no one likes a decided election. Also, the benefits of being the incumbent will start kicking in this year as we enter the campaign…

Meanwhile, overconfidence can prevent left militants to actually work and campaign and just sit as if they just need to wait for Lula’s election.

Bolsonaro has been strategically quiet since his coup attempt in September 7th 2021 failed and didn’t get enough people on the streets. There have been no major public comments that are designed to mobilize the more radical base, like it used to be a constant until that day and helped reduce his popularity during the COVID pandemic. People don’t see him daily saying sh**t anymore and that has helped him at the very minimum contain his popularity fall.

Not to mention the signs from economy in 2022 have been somewhat positive, at least so far two months in. Nothing is decided yet and this has potential to still be a close election. Never underestimate the power of government machine the incumbent has.

[Red Velvet]

The left-right union on this matter is so delicious. It’s the centrists who are more strongly in support of Ukraine but they don’t really matter.

Get ready for this trend:

https://www.twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1497214623052935173