Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Red Velvet]

Brazil is giant, the expat vote is practically irrelevant in the overall result. Still fun to see where immigrants in each country/city will go for.

Obviously immigrants in Japan and USA (especially in Florida) will be much more far-right leaning but will be fun to see if the margin from 2018 diminishes. In 2018 Bolsonaro got around 90% in Miami me thinks. Maybe now it can get closer to only 75% there voting for Bolsonaro?

Meanwhile will be fun to see results of places Haddad managed to win in 2018 like Paris and Berlin. Margins there could be huge for Lula this time.

But since most Brazilian immigrants are basically in USA  (hard right-wing) or Portugal (more swing average voter), I bet Bolsonaro still wins the exterior vote in the end, although to much diminished margins.

The rest of Europe could help push it to Lula though, but I’m not sure it will be sufficient to compensate all the USA + Japan vote. Could maybe be close but nahh.

[Red Velvet]

Overall - 697k international voters

Biggest international electorates with eligible voters:

Top 3 Countries
1. USA: >183k
2. Portugal: >80k
3. Japan: >76k

After those three the most relevant are probably Italy, Germany, UK, Spain and France but I’m not sure about the order or the exact number.

Top 5 Cities
1. Lisbon (Portugal): >45k
2. Miami (USA): >40k
3. Boston (USA): >37k
4. Nagoya (Japan): >35k
5. London (UK): >34k

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro had 90% in Miami-Florida in 2018

In 2014, Miami was the best city for Aécio Neves. He had 92%. Higher % than the one he had in Nova Pádua-RS, his best city in Brazil

Many Brazilians living in Japan are nissei and sansei and this community in Brazil votes on average on the right of most of the Brazilian population.

Omg freaking Miami voting to the right of literally EVERY SINGLE CITY in actual Brazil in 2014 shouldn’t be a surprise knowing the types that frequent that city. Doesn’t happen only with the Brazilian expats there.

Still, it’s kinda overwhelming to really be able to understand of how extremely far-right the immigrant community in that city is. San Francisco sounds like a much better place to be based on how the immigrants there vote.

[Red Velvet]

Overall - 697k international voters

Biggest international electorates with eligible voters:

Top 3 Countries
1. USA: >183k
2. Portugal: >80k
3. Japan: >76k

After those three the most relevant are probably Italy, Germany, UK, Spain and France but I’m not sure about the order or the exact number.

Top 5 Cities
1. Lisbon (Portugal): >45k
2. Miami (USA): >40k
3. Boston (USA): >37k
4. Nagoya (Japan): >35k
5. London (UK): >34k

Very curious to see how the growing Brazilian community in Portugal will vote. Some, according to the media around here, say that Bolsonaro may have an edge while others say it will very close.

I actually hope Portugal can push the vote to the left because of the top 3 countries with most eligible voters, it’s definitely the most favorable to Lula since US+Japan are hard conservative strongholds.

The immigrants in Europe tend to be more left-friendly, although maybe less so in Portugal than in most European countries. Which makes it more of a swing country, I guess.

In 2018 the Portuguese cities behaved similar to a Southeast big city like Rio or São Paulo, with Bolsonaro reaching around 65%. So if it follows those places again, it should have small victory margins for Lula, like 5% above Bolsonaro or so.

Will be fun to compare the behaviors from the immigrants with the people in the inside. The big shift in the Southeast region is real, let’s see if Portugal follows similar trend.

[Red Velvet]

Brazilians are officially already voting! The vote has already started in New Zealand and possibly the results there will come out tomorrow morning when we actually start voting here lol

[Red Velvet]

Datafolha Rio de Janeiro Senate:

Romário (PL) 35%
Molon (PSB) 21%
Clarissa Garotinho (UB) 16%
André Ceciliano (PT) 10%

Now imagine if the left was minimally organized and PT didn’t run that Ceciliano guy to kill Molon’s chances.

Romário would still be the favorite but with a combined 31% it would be much more viable to reach him and take him out. It’s funny how much I completely hate PT in Rio because in São Paulo they would likely be my favorite party.

[Red Velvet]

The Roraima numbers for Bolsonaro being his best margins in the country LMAO

That poor state is the only one in the entire country with a FULL population number (652k) below the expat eligible voters number (697k). Way more Brazilians outside Brazil than in that state.

You know you’re really f-cked up when you’re even more Pro-Bolsonaro than Santa f-cking Catarina…

[Red Velvet]

Well, at least Santa Catarina can brag about being only the 2nd most pro-Bolsonaro state in the country if anyone decides to drag them, I guess…

Regarding the swing states, I think it will end up with the obvious anyway. Lula winning Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Sul with low margins and Bolsonaro winning Mato Grosso do Sul (tbh, I’m really surprised the vote in MS is so close! I didn’t imagine them being that much to the left of Paraná).

[Red Velvet]

What are the best sites to watch the count?

I usually do it on average news websites reporting the count in real time.

G1 is one of them: https://g1.globo.com/

[Red Velvet]

What are the best sites to watch the count?

I usually do it on average news websites reporting the count in real time.

G1 is one of them: https://g1.globo.com/

Thanks. Fingers crossed for Lula!

Results from New Zealand (where Bolsonaro won in 2018) show great signs. Lula destroying Bolsonaro there.

[Red Velvet]

🇳🇿 - Wellington

Lula 329 - 72.95%
Bolsonaro 71 - 15.74%
Ciro 23 - 5.10%


In 2018 It was:

Bolsonaro 140 - 41.06%
Ciro 89 - 26.10%
Amoedo 46 - 13.49%
Haddad 23 - 6.74%

🎉🎉🎉🎉

I don't want to get too excited but F@CK YEAH!!!

Will there be any other closings in countries abroad (like in Australia, etc)?

Yes, as soon as it's 17h in other countries we'll get the results there too. Unfortunately for me, I vote in Madrid but I'm working in Berlin today so I won't be able to vote. But I'll go to the Brazilian embassy to follow the election as polls close.

Where can we see those results?

2018 results here:

https://especiais.gazetadopovo.com.br/eleicoes/2018/resultados/municipios-exterior/barcelona-ex/presidente/

2022 ones are being shared on social media.

How are the social media people getting the NZ results?

The results are printed by each electronic machine and publicly exposed by gluing one copy from them in front of the location the vote happened. That way everyone can see them.

Someone just took a picture of the results that were put in front of the Embassy in New Zealand and people are sharing it. In Wellington it’s only those four papers:

https://www.twitter.com/popchartpc/status/1576435509987282944

[Red Velvet]

The actual vote in Brazil only starts in about 4 hours btw.

But following the new results per country should be fun past time in the meantime as they also should indicate a trend.

And so far based on Australia + New Zealand this year the expat vote is significantly to the left in comparison to 2018. Those are areas that Bolsonaro had won back then and now he’s losing with big margins…

Japan is one of the most important ones and should be out really soon. I think it’s inevitably more conservative than the average so if it’s not a landslide for Bolsonaro then it’s already great news.

Then Europe will only come much later but will be fun to watch them all, especially the PORTUGAL one, which I consider kinda more of a potential representative of the average Southeastern voter

The USA vote might be significant but will only be released after the vote in Brazil is closed itself, so we won’t really follow them lol

[Red Velvet]

New Zealand, 2018: Bolsonaro 43% // Haddad 6%
New Zealand, 2022: Lula 72% // Bolsonaro 15%

Canberra, 2018: Bolsonaro 47% // Haddad 7%
Canberra, 2022: Lula 64% // Bolsonaro 20%

Sydney, 2018: Bolsonaro 45% // Haddad 6%
Sydney, 2022: Lula 52% // Bolsonaro 31%

[Red Velvet]

I’m noticing a bigger turnout here in my vote station as well. It never has lines, but this year it does.

[Red Velvet]

Lula has so far won in New Zealand, Australia, China, South Korea, Singapore…

Bolsonaro has predictably won Japan only, but since it has a bigger electorate than all those others, the final balance is still positive for Bolsonaro. But his margin from 2018 diminished there as well.

The final exterior vote could be close if all of Europe goes with Lula to compensate for the US numbers inevitably going for Bolsonaro. Although like Japan, I bet his margin in US will somewhat diminish in comparison to 2018.

ETA: Apparently Bolsonaro has also won in Israel, while Lula won in Palestine.

[Red Velvet]

You could say the same for 2014-2018 and 2018-2022 terms though, which all had to deal with much worse stuff lol.

Bolsonaro himself, was “lucky” to get the COVID period, something naturally negative which he completely transformed into something that gave him much worse press. No one can predict the future.

[Red Velvet]

Brazil is culturally kinda disconnected from LatAm in general tbh, not just Colombia. Language barrier mostly although geography and population distribution (Brazilians concentrated in the Atlantic coast, distant from everyone else) are obviously also factors. The sole exception is probably Argentina, the only LatAm country that gets on the news here from time to time.

[Red Velvet]

The map of the vote count from Globo: https://especiaisg1.globo/politica/eleicoes/2022/mapas/mapa-da-apuracao-no-brasil-presidente/1-turno/

[Red Velvet]

The vote counted is mostly from Brasilia lol. Relax people

[Red Velvet]

The development of the vote count in 2014



People seriously need to relax. Practically zero coastal vote yet if you go by the Globo map and that’s where people actually live. Basically nothing counted.

The Brasilia vote is a 5% drop from Bolsonaro in regards 2018 and somewhat aligned with IPEC poll predictions. IPEC said DF was going Bolsonaro 48% vs Lula 35%, which could still very well be the end result there.

[Red Velvet]

Why are the results taking so long?

Long lines in some places, there are still people voting.

[Red Velvet]

46,46% counted

Bolsonaro 46,69%
Lula 44,47%

Lula will win since it’s mostly Northeastern vote to come in but I don’t think it will reach 50% and Bolsonaro won’t fall below 40% like polls pointed. Bolsonaro candidates (ex: Damares in DF senate wasn’t expected to win) overperformance is also something that hints Bolsonaro doing better than expected as well.

Could end up being something around Lula 48% and Bolsonaro 42% maybe, more or less. So it’s going to a runoff.

[Red Velvet]

98,91% counted

Lula 48,18%
Bolsonaro 43,42%

The interesting thing is that the polling wasn’t really off regarding Lula’s percentage at all! They predicted 50% and around 48,3% is within their 2% margin of error. We always said that whether this was going to be defined on 1st round or not would be tough.

What they DID get it wrong and underestimated was the Bolsonaro hidden support though. Be it because of outdated balances of class statistics or because Bolsonaro supporters are hostile to participating in polls, idk, but it’s clear this is a trend now for polling institutions to significantly underestimate the far-right support and they need to investigate better reasons on why this happens.

The 5% lead over Bolsonaro makes Lula the favorite and I guess he would get most of the Ciro and Tebet votes but that isn’t a safe thing at all. In the runoff campaign things get really ugly with dirty campaigning. It will be really close regardless of result and I think it’s hard to see anyone winning with more than 52-53% tbh.

Regardless, even if he wins, the congress completely sucks with this PL + UNIÃO domination. People would have to give up thinking about any sane and healthy stable government with this new composition. The center and center-right parties (where the hell is PSDB and MDB now?) have completely EVAPORATED to open space to full domination by these two parties that are a weird idea of Centrão with far-right people in it. The point of Lula winning at this point is simply stop Bolsonaro from doing it so and limiting damages.

[Red Velvet]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but as things stand it seems to me that Lula is likely to take the large majority of Ciro Gomes supporters and probably a handful / decent majority of Simone Tebet supporters who seem like uncontraversial social liberals.

Absolutely nothing should be taken for granted, obviously... But is there really any imaginable scenario where Bolosnaro would surge to win the second round? Isn't his turnout likely tapped out with his supporters trying to overwhelm the odds in the first round, whereas Lula supporters might have taken his win for granted and will come out in the second round?

What are the chances Lula actually improves in the second round by a few points and possibly even aims for 59 or dare I say 60 percent? If that is ultimately the case I think those of us on the Left will be able to look back and laugh at some of the trepidation and anxiety-ridden takes here.

Unlikely doesn’t mean impossible. The path is hard for Bolsonaro but he can bet on aggressive campaigning focused on diminishing his rejection in the northeast.

It’s not just about Tebet and Ciro voters though, but bringing the non-voters in. You don’t know the profile of the people who didn’t appear, making then a wildcard.

[Red Velvet]

With 99,55% counted the Lula lead finally reaches 5%. Whoever said between 5% - 5,5% in the final result was spot on.

Lula 48,31%
Bolsonaro 43,30%

The polls weren’t THAT off regarding the presidential vote, as they predicted Lula with 50% and Bolsonaro in mid-to-high 30s percent. I think it’s less of a Bolsonaro sudden over-performance and more the pollsters failing to predict a real and fair statistic balance between society segments.