French presidential election, 2022

[Red Velvet]

So the general sentiment in France right now is... for an entire political spectrum of different types of racists as candidates? A hard-Right racist of one sort, a hard-Right racist of another kind, a Conservative racist, a liberal racist, a left-wing racist...'

The candidates are simply reflecting the current general sentiment in France in order to be electorally viable. The traditional Gaullist right and also the socialists are completely dead and don’t appeal to the French population like they did in the past.

French elections will be a sh**tshow not because of lack of options, but because France is one of the countries with strongest anti-immigration fervor right now. Even Macron (shockingly the least right-wing option in the top 4 according to the polls) has to adopt some of the racist subtext in order to not be rejected by French society.

Last IPSOS poll was:

Macron (“center”) - 24%
Le Pen (right) - 16%
Zemmour (far-right) - 15%
Bertrand (center-right) - 14%
Mélenchon (left) - 9%
Jadot (greens) - 9%
Hidalgo (center-left) - 5,5%
Others: don’t reach more than 2% each

Just to give an idea of how much right-wing France is right now. And the sentiment only grows. I think it’s for the better that someone like Le Pen gets elected so that the trend can reverse sooner.

[Red Velvet]

Does Melenchon have a realistic chance of making the runoff? It looks like he is polling 6 points behind Le Pen, but a few points worse than 2017 when he fell 2 points short of making the runoff. Unfortunately, he also seems like a dangerous extremist.

Not impossible (like you could say for Pécresse and others) but I think that’s very unlikely. He needs to keep growing while hoping Le Pen doesn’t benefit from the Zemmour or Pecresse sinking ships.

But it’s evident that the Melenchon consistency in elections shows he’s the main and only chance of the French left being relevant and that the French political scenario is very divided between 3 camps. An ideological left (Melenchon supporters), an ideological right (Le Pen supporters) and a big-tent broad center (Macron supporters).

[Red Velvet]

What are Le Pen’s economic policies these days? Would she be considered to Macron’s left economically, or is there still a Poujadist streak that is more populist/all things to all people?

She’s more in favor of economic interventionism than him if that’s what you mean by “to his left”, but I still wouldn’t call her a leftist on that sense by any means. Melenchon is that guy.

It’s on cultural/social matters that she’s definitely way to the right of Macron, who is a liberal on all the senses of that word (cultural/social - where being a liberal is associated to the left AND economical - where being a liberal is associated to the right).

[Red Velvet]

That Brazilian pollster is okay for Brazil. Not idea about the tradition in other countries though.

[Red Velvet]

Zemmour was great for Le Pen because it’s harsher for people to see her as “the extremist” now and that he occupies that position. I don’t doubt she can get elected this time at all.

Would consolidate the end of EU at least in the way we know it. Hungary is one thing even if they’re EU member, but France??

[Red Velvet]

“France First” - Le Pen against sanctioning Russia because of the economic setbacks it brings to France. I think she really could pull this off if she focus on that message of internal economic well-being interest and purchasing power.

Le Pen against sanctions on Russia over French interests

French Presidential candidate Marine Le Pen stresses that she is against imposing sanctions on Russian raw materials, gas, and oil due to the ramifications it would have on the French economy.

[Red Velvet]

Very par for the course to see so many "leftists" bowing down at the altar of nightmarish neoliberal orthodoxy (as they almost always do, in all Western countries) to vote for Macron

The left is dead, but ESPECIALLY in western countries.

What you have is a bunch of liberal people thinking they’re socialists even though they always fall in line with the mainstream thinking, as if current world and media was dominated by socialism lmao. Zero critical thinking or meaningful dissent by these people, they care more about likes on social media and stuff like that.

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1513115084591095814?s=20&t=eNyci1I70...
Apparently S-S-D turnout is down 10%, which should be both a symbol of the Left's disunity and the fact that Melenchon isn't a good replacement.

Lower turnout sounds good for Le Pen, I think? The 2017 voter - 2022 non-voter sounds like someone who was energized to defeat fascism five years ago and nowadays simply doesn’t care.

[Red Velvet]

A runoff between Melenchon vs Le Pen would be so exciting. At least there would be someone for me to root for with daddy Melenchon in the runoff.

Macron out of the runoff would also be life-giving, just to see the liberals panic with the runoff.

It’s not happening but these moments before the results are the last ones we have to dream.

[Red Velvet]

Melenchon will finish so close to taking Le Pen out of the runoff but won’t do it.

If only some people didn’t waste their vote going for people with no chances like Hidalgo, Jadot or even the Communist Party candidate (who performed better than Hidalgo), Le Pen’s political career would’ve been done.

[Red Velvet]

If anything, these results show Melenchon was completely right in ditching the center-left trash lol. His appeal comes from being anti-system. He’s stealing a lot of Le Pen areas because of that and showing the left HOW you fight the populist right.

The likes of Jadot/Hidalgo cannot even get to 5%, they have no leverage for demands.

[Red Velvet]

The liberal left is indeed a joke against the populist right. They’re not allies and don’t represent me. If I were French I would probably be a Melenchon - Abstention voter as well.

Ana Gomes from the socialist party in Portugal appears to be happy about Le Pen going to runoff because it means the “anti-democratic Left” failed. These European “center-left” people are moderate neoliberals and fascist enablers. The idea of accepting a primary with them is based on the assumption they’re on a similar-ish side, which they are not. Old left or bust.

[Red Velvet]

Not sure how reliable is this but it was the only info I could find for LatAm

https://mobile.twitter.com/sofiauduvard/status/1513180675423318017

[Red Velvet]

Expat vote results are out by consular constituency and they're hilarious. Zemmour won in Israel, Russia (minus Yekaterinburg constituency) - no comment - Thailand and the Almaty constituency. He also won 31% in the Bahamas and 25.4% in Miami. I will just say one thing about this: LOL.



There's no embassy in North Korea, the embassy in Yemen is closed but the consular constituency still exists and reported 0 votes, the embassy in Syria is closed but 2 votes were cast (one each for Zemmour and Pécresse), 1 vote was cast in Afghanistan and it was for Macron and the election couldn't be held in Shanghai because ZeroCovid disenfranchises people.

Some constituencies are non-contiguous (Malawi is with RSA, Nunavut is with Montreal, Jamaica is with Panama, PR is with Miami etc.)

Full details here: https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/elections_pr_1er_tour_2022_-_pourcentages__cle0f9d7c.pdf

Impressive. Brazilian Northeast is coincidentally the PT/Lula stronghold here in Brazil.

[Red Velvet]

And I guess it’s not just Latino expats in Miami who are consistently awful. It’s all people in Miami apparently.

Always the most right-wing city in US in all these international voting results. And with lots of comfort, there isn’t even a competition lol