Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Red Velvet]

The level of polarization in today's Spain is only comparable to the USA under Trump and Brazil under Bolsonaro. No other country in Western Europe is suffering the same levels of political tension and aggressiveness. It is often said hyperbolic attacks are dramatizations aimed at attracting the public's attention, while the civil society is much more calm and tolerant. However, sooner or later, the extreme political polarization leads to affective polarization. When a society reaches the stage of affective polarization, it becomes harder to solve the problems and heal the wounds. This process can be seen also in Catalonia, with the huge rift existing between people in favor and against independence. That conflict has also contributed to fuel the most reactionary forms of Spanish nationalism, which is reviving the ideological hatred of the 1930s. When Vox candidate Rocio Monasterio (allegedly born in Cuba) tells Pablo Iglesias *go out" and "we are better without you in this country", she's appealing to the old Francoist argument that says all political antagonists (leftists, republicans, peripheral nationalists) are the anti-Spain

Spain is definitely the country that reminds me most of Brazil in terms of politics. By far. The origin of the fascism is very very similar, rooted in unresolved authoritarian chains of the past. Spain with the Franco dictatorship and Brazil with the military dictatorship.

It’s a very different brand of the far-right you find in US, in the rest of Europe. The religion influence is bigger and social conservative positions are more enhanced because of that. I think stuff like homophobia is a main driven for the movement in both places for example, something that you didn’t see people like Trump movement or Le Pen movement care about at all.

Luckily it’s a brand that appears to stay limited to these two countries, as it’s way more disgusting and authoritarian than the other far-right ones IMO. Because of historical backgrounds, culture and inherited structures, I keep fearing the day it could reach similar levels of hate in Portugal or in other South American countries because those are the places that I think are more susceptible to that type of far-right brand. It gained more space in these places but luckily not nearly in the same level as it happened in Spain and especially Brazil.

[Red Velvet]

I’ve done the cluster17 test and got "Los republicanos"

4,9% of Spanish population and electorally all over the place, divided between PSOE/PP and a bunch of Catalan independence parties.

It’s categorized as a group dominated by male voters from rural areas in Catalonia/Baleares/Asturias/La Rioja who are against the monarchy (“Republicans”) and apparently is the cluster where most Catalan independence supporters fall into???

I don’t get it tbh, because I answered against Catalan independence in the test!

It’s also described as a left-wing group that is more “liberal” on economic stuff, like favoring lower taxes, even though my answers were very left-wing economically.

I guess it was mostly my mixed answers on the cultural stuff that made me fall there since the cluster is described as more ambivalent on those issues - they favor gay rights and immigrant rights but seem to be more skeptical of feminist and environmental issues lol

I don’t even agree with that but the feminist and environmental questions there just sounded nonsense to me. Make feminist classes MANDATORY in schools is being anti-feminist now? And not thinking reducing speed limit from 120km/h to 110km/h is a real ambiental solution against pollution is anti-environmental?

Still, I was surprised that it described that group as male, young and upper class because I’m all that so it does somewhat make sense even if it’s about the realities of a whole different country.

[Red Velvet]

Spain under the PSOE was able to de-escalate the Catalan independence issue and now Vox will throw all that progress away, all because they want to emulate Franco and ban the Catalan language.

I wonder more how Vox in government will impact the PP reputation for being in a coalition with those hardline extremists. Not that they have any other choice to form a majority though, unless they invited PSOE to be in government lmao. But Spain isn’t Germany.

Still telling how Vox will lose votes now but still get to be in government for the first time ever due to PP’s gains. It helps polarization imo because the more “moderate” people will see them as the same thing as the radical far-right since they’re legitimizing them.

You basically have one center-left and a center-right party that concentrate most of the vote but never enough to get a majority by themselves these days, with more outspoken options in the left (Sumar, ex-Unidas Podemos) and right (Vox) getting significant number of chairs that is necessary for the big two to form a majority even though they low-key hate their more moderate and establishment “party allies” even if they’re the closest ideologically.

I remember Pedro Sanchez had some tension with Unidas Podemos even though they were part of his government, I wonder how will it go with PP/VOX. How much power is PP willing to give to VOX in order to assure governability? I don’t know enough about Spanish politics to have an answer to that.

[Red Velvet]

As someone who lived in Barcelona for 9 months during the period when everything was chaos (2017-2018) regarding the independence movement, I am quite friendly to them! Though I think an united Spain is the best thing for both Catalonia and Spain geopolitically.

I think Spain just needs to be nice with them that the energy for independence dies down. Most people I talked showed resentment to a historical level, mentioning times during Spanish dictatorship where they were mistreated and the Spanish government tried to erase their language. Which is valid resentment to hold tbh.

Though there’s also an elitist element about it being a richer region and having to send money to poorer ones that I simply don’t agree - but that was a less common reason than the historical stuff.

Things obviously died down since I left in 2018, PSOE taking power in 2019 and having a different approach than PP probably had an effect indeed. And that’s because VOX didn’t hold any chairs when I was there and they’re literally the representation of the Franco fascists that ruled Spain during dictatorship.

So yeah, Vox in power would legitimize a lot the Catalan independence movement a lot in my eyes and probably many others.

[Red Velvet]

Last GESOP Australian tracking poll

PP 31 5% 129/133 seats
PSOE 28.5% 107/111 seats
SUMAR 14.0% 36/40 seats
VOX 13.5% 36/40 seats
ERC 2.2% 8/9 seats
JUNTS 1.8% 7/8 seats

Swing with regards previous poll: PP + 0.5%, PSOE +1.0%, SUMAR -0.2%, VOX - 0 8%

Feijóo's blunders, lies and disgusting statements continue.  The bogus man said Yolanda Díaz is a make up expert. The woman replied she's happy to know he's recovered from lumbago and offered a debate on economic issues

PSOE just needs to get 10 seats out of PP according to that poll and you get a 50/50 split between the left and right blocs lmao

Honestly, I kinda hope PP + Vox get this win NOW than later at a more friendly moment after PSOE loses even more support in a few years after being in government but much weaker if they manage to win this.

With PP + VOX leading a weak government with barely a minority, it could be hard to get stuff done and reach agreement and they will also become more unpopular from being in the spotlight, which could lead to a much larger left-wing victory in the next elections. There’s nothing that strengthens the left as much as having outright dangerous fascists like Vox in power.

Here in Brazil I was impressed how everyone (media, establishment, manipulated public opinion) was strongly against the left between 2015-2020. The conservative wave in that 2nd half of 2010s felt like a real unprecedented movement here and that it would take a loooong time before the left would get back. I am from 1994 so the first 20 years of my life were under a completely different scenario, where the left was the “cool” mainstream option - especially since after the dictatorship collapsed we entered in a period of strong cultural progressivism in 80s and 90s that helped the left slowly emerge until finally reaching power in 2002.

But it only took less than two years of Bolsonaro in government for the left to become popular again simply because of the stuff our president would say - with reaction to covid being a definitive turning point.

A lot of Vox positions remind me of what Bolsonaro say, actually the Spanish far-right is the one that reminds me the most of the Brazilian one out of all the ones that exist in Europe. It’s incredibly the same DNA. So I imagine having Vox in power could have some kind of similar effect, especially considering they will be in power after LOSING support, only reaching power because of PP.

[Red Velvet]

Does Pauline Hanson even have power or global recognition? One nation has 0 seats.

[Red Velvet]

Yay, so far it’s looking like it will be a close tie, but with a sliiiight right-wing lead over the left.

Hopefully this means the right isn’t able to do anything, while Vox in power contaminates their popularity soooo much that the left wins BIG in the next elections.

[Red Velvet]

I've seen enough.
PP + VOX + UPN will not win a majority (176 seats)

Yeah, likely will finish closer to 170.

That kinda worries me though, because no one reaching 176 means chaos and a new election very soon where the right will likely expand.

Ideal scenario would be PP+Vox+UPN finishing with 175 and depending of, idk, CC to form a majority? They wouldn’t get anything done and Vox in power would be toxic for PP.

[Red Velvet]

I love how lefty my 2nd home city (technically province but you get the idea) of Barcelona is. PSOE and Sumar are the top 2 voted parties

PP + Vox get a total of 21% there and this is because Spain shifted Right compared to 2019.

Barcelona (79% counted):

PSOE - 36,16% (13 seats) - left
Sumar - 15,14% (5 seats) - left, but more than PSOE
PP - 13,61% (5 seats) - right
ERC - 12,23% (4 seats) - left, but also Catalan independist party
Junts - 9,50% (3 seats) - big tent, but also Catalan independist party
Vox - 7,65% (2 seats) - right, but also fascists

[Red Velvet]

Well, it really looks like neither right (PP + Vox + UDN + CC??) or left (PSOE + Sumar + ERC + Bildu + BNG) will be able to get a majority on their own.

Which means whatever government is formed will depend on the centrist Independist Parties from Basque Country (PNV) and Catalonia (Junts).

So whoever wins and gets to be Prime-Minister is doomed from the start. New elections could happen very soon and just like 2019 I think this would only benefit the right.

[Red Velvet]

The right-wing bloc is at 169 now.  PP vote share is about to overtake PSOE very soon

Great. I don’t want PSOE to “win” and have to form a government if it it’s dead from the start. Let the right self-destroy by having Vox in government but also needing Independist parties from the Basque Country + One Liberal from Canary Islands lmao

[Red Velvet]

PP sorpassoed PSOE on the vote count just now.

Yup, which gives PP a “mandate” to lead.

PP + Vox + UPN = 170 seats

PP + Vox + UPN + CC = 171 seats

They only need more 5 or 6 seats to govern with this coalition.

[Red Velvet]

I think that, if the right is really desperate to govern, they could grant all possible privileges to the PNV, perhaps a referendum for more autonomy. In fact the PNV has supported the PP in some cases even with Vox already present in the Cortes. Of course this would provoke the implosion of the right wing in the next elections.

Yup. Dream scenario.

Right destroyed for next elections while only getting a minimal and exact 176 with the centrist Basque Independists muahahahaha. Humiliating for Vox.

That won’t happen though. I bet they don’t even try to form a government - which they could, by reaching to PNV - so that there will be new elections in six months or so.

[Red Velvet]

This is going as I hoped. The PP/Vox government will lack 6 seats for a majority and will be forced to lead the country without getting anything done while just having Vox with power doing / saying crazy evil stuff will energize the left for the next elections.

[Red Velvet]

What is "the Russian role in the Catalan separatist process" exactly?

Russia supposedly supports Catalan nationalism in order to stimulate a divide inside Europe. Kinda like they also were in favor of BREXIT in UK. At least that’s what I’ve heard from Western liberal types.