Brazil Municipal Elections (November 15th, November 29th, 2020)

[Red Velvet]

Since 2014, the polls on the eve of the election day underestimate the right. This problem happened in 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020.

Didn't Bolsonaro underperform his polls in the runoff?

No, not really, it was about the same or only 1%-2% lower than the expected for him and Haddad was showing a really small and slow last minute growth trend though. And in 1st round, Polls showed him reaching 40% in a continuous growth trend and the exit polls captured the numbers just fine.

Thing is that lots of voters decide who they choose on the same day of the vote, which is why it’s natural to have like, up to 5% discrepancies to the last non-exit poll released. Which is why it’s important to pay more attention to significant trends more than the raw numbers. Because Bolsonaro was in a non-stop trend of growth in 1st round of 2018, people always expected that he could get close to 50% (he made 46%) based on the poll numbers.

[Red Velvet]

I do not see a path for the left in Brazil in 2022. There's no main leading figure or possible leading figure able to unite it. Plus, the recent surge of PSOL in many big cities could create tensions on who leads the left in the future. The "centrão" seems more likely to have a winning strategy, but, then again, it lacks also a leading figure as of now: Doria is quite unpopular right now in São Paulo, Moro is very divisive and Luciano Huck isn't serious, IMO. However, it's possible some figure emerges in the next two years, a lot of water will pass under the bridge till 2022, but again, the "centrão" seems, IMO, more able to create a strong challenge against Bolsonaro than the left. But, Bolsonaro is still, against all odds, relatively popular and, for example, unlike Trump he has a positive job approval right now, only just, but positive nonetheless. He could, if he even runs for a 2nd term, who knows, have a pretty good shot in the 2022 elections, but, all depends on who's on the other side.

That’s why considering divisions across all spectrums, you don’t need to totally unite the field, you just need to get more votes than the other options. It would be a mistake to equal these local elections with mostly local municipal discussions exactly with the national scenario. They indicate similar trends, but they don’t show the exact same picture.

PT is very divisive party nowadays but they can very well still win just by retaining a portion of their 2018 vote (29% in 1st round isn’t to be ignored) and then riding on hopefully anti-Bolsonaro sentiment being stronger than anti-PT one.

Center-right just needs to pick one single candidate to not divide their vote and play strong opposition to Bolsonaro to make him lose more support. Most of these people would go for them even if not necessarily all. Then they get 2nd place, go to the runoff and most likely easily win.

Ciro can win if he plays to the center while keeping one foot in the left and if he manages to appeal to people in the left sense of pragmatism. The more passionate PT voters would never support him anyway. He has the hardest path though because it would need him to have a great compelling campaign that wins over votes and not just naturally inherits it like PT and center-right will do. The votes he can inherit either from PT’s “desidatração” or from other sectors is limited to around 5% in the more pessimistic scenario (with no broad front union).

[Red Velvet]

I do not see a path for the left in Brazil in 2022. There's no main leading figure or possible leading figure able to unite it. Plus, the recent surge of PSOL in many big cities could create tensions on who leads the left in the future. The "centrão" seems more likely to have a winning strategy, but, then again, it lacks also a leading figure as of now: Doria is quite unpopular right now in São Paulo, Moro is very divisive and Luciano Huck isn't serious, IMO. However, it's possible some figure emerges in the next two years, a lot of water will pass under the bridge till 2022, but again, the "centrão" seems, IMO, more able to create a strong challenge against Bolsonaro than the left. But, Bolsonaro is still, against all odds, relatively popular and, for example, unlike Trump he has a positive job approval right now, only just, but positive nonetheless. He could, if he even runs for a 2nd term, who knows, have a pretty good shot in the 2022 elections, but, all depends on who's on the other side.

That’s why considering divisions across all spectrums, you don’t need to totally unite the field, you just need to get more votes than the other options. It would be a mistake to equal these local elections with mostly local municipal discussions exactly with the national scenario. They indicate similar trends, but they don’t show the exact same picture.

PT is very divisive party nowadays but they can very well still win just by retaining a portion of their 2018 vote (29% in 1st round isn’t to be ignored) and then riding on hopefully anti-Bolsonaro sentiment being stronger than anti-PT one.

Center-right just needs to pick one single candidate to not divide their vote and play strong opposition to Bolsonaro to make him lose more support. Most of these people would go for them even if not necessarily all. Then they get 2nd place, go to the runoff and most likely easily win.

Ciro can win if he plays to the center while keeping one foot in the left and if he manages to appeal to people in the left sense of pragmatism. The more passionate PT voters would never support him anyway. He has the hardest path though because it would need him to have a great compelling campaign that wins over votes and not just naturally inherits it like PT and center-right will do. The votes he can inherit either from PT’s “desidatração” or from other sectors is limited to around 5% in the more pessimistic scenario (with no broad front union).

Why is PT so divisive these days?

4 consecutive presidential election wins is something bound to put off people who want change. But also, “Car-Wash” effects strongly consolidated this feeling in society.

[Red Velvet]

“Centrão” doesn’t have any centralized base, it’s an agglomeration of many parties, so it’s wrong to assume these 25% would go to one specific candidate. Much more likely that this vote would be divided between small options or even go to a top candidate for pragmatism.

Presidential elections are also much more about one personality than necessarily just one party or ideology.

Last poll from EXAME, realized in October 8th, shows a more likely scenario, which is bound to change in the next two years as candidates announce they won’t run and campaign really starts:

EXAME (08/10/2020):

Bolsonaro (no party) 30%
Lula (PT) 18%
Sérgio Moro (?) 10%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 9%
Luciano Huck (?) 5%
João Doria (PSDB) 4%

Sérgio Moro isn’t a politician and would be a terrible campaigner, so much that it’s more likely for him to not run and be something like Luciano Huck’s VP. All that Moro vote is weak and up for grabs.

At same time, “Centrão” is a political establishment wing that is different than “car-wash” supporters (which is what is represented by the Moro vote). The political center-right HATES Sérgio Moro too and they won’t automatically get the vote from Moro. You can’t just aglomerate all the different non-Bolsonaro right-wing sectors while dividing the left.

Bolsonaro car-wash voters who abandoned him did so in big part due to him sucking up to “Centrão” just to get more congress support. Car-washers made a huge scandal when Bolsonaro nominated to Supreme Court a candidate associated to the corrupt “Centrão” and not the strong punitive anti-corruption name they desired.

Also, PSOL isn’t getting this much vote intention you think in such a polarized vote with the risk of Bolsonaro being re-elected. More likely that these 6% people you mention would go to PT or Ciro.

Honestly, when all is said and done, the most likely scenario that I would predict right now is a Bolsonaro vs PT showdown again even if they underperformed in these elections.

PSDB’s nightmare would be a Huck/Moro run against Doria, which is why they could try getting Huck to be their VP and not having Moro run at all in order to appease the “Centrão” and get the political establishment support for Doria. And more establishment support means important stuff like more campaign financing, more TV airtime, etc.

If Moro doesn’t run at all and PSDB goes with Doria/Huck then I do think they can have a good shot though.

[Red Velvet]

When I mean "centrão" it's the whole MDB, PSDB, PP, DEM, PSD supporting a sole candidate. But still, I'm very skeptical of PT facing Bolsonaro again. I fear that if that happens again, it will be a Bolsonaro re-election. Doria, IMO, has a lot "Alckmin" vibes, I don't know, I think he would be a flop campaigning. Like I said in my earlier post, neither side has a strong leading figure. But, until 2020, a lot will happen.

Well, Doria is the biggest name the political center-right has, if he isn’t able to win then none of them would ever be able to break the Bolsonaro vs PT logic. It’s not like that center-right field is flooding with big charismatic names.

By political center-right, I’m excluding outsiders with no political experience such as ex-judge Moro or TV-host Huck.

But like I said, Moro would never get the support of the “Centrão” and his car-wash base would abandon him if he tried to pursue this dialogue with center-right politicians because Moro is liked by these people precisely because he is from outside politics, which is why he would be destroyed by actually entering politics.

Huck on the other hand has charisma and I think he could actually campaign somewhat decently. Which is why he could be the center-right biggest hope, either running by himself with Moro as VP in a more outsider-ish type of campaign (which would destroy PSDB and the political center-right) OR have him run as VP to Doria in order to add more charisma to their campaign and to “Centrão”.

That said, it’s hard to see Huck leaving his prestigious TV job just to be VP. If he runs, it will be for the main spot. Which is why it’s more likely for the right to be divided into 3 sectors if Huck/Moro really becomes a thing.

I feel like no one wants to predict a Bolsonaro vs PT because that would be the closest scenario that could re-elect Bolsonaro but it’s the most possible as well. It’s normal these days for incumbents to be re-elected anyway. But if his rejection keeps growing in next two years then PT could easily upset despite all the strong anti-PT sentiment still present.

Best way to break it would be unity in the center but they’re all divided. Center-left has Ciro, center-right has all these multiple options that also have conflict between each other with Sérgio Moro being a popular figure with a good share of voters but is hated by everyone in politics, from Ciro Gomes to DEM politicians. Everyone will want to run and divide the vote even more.

[Red Velvet]

Variations in municipalities won by each party from 2016 to 2020

Avante +583,33%
Patriota +276,92%
Podemos +251,72%
PSL +200,00% (they were nobodies in 2016, Bolsonaro only joined in 2018 and left them in 2019 so expected growth since they became more known)
PSOL +150,00%
Republicanos +104,85%
DEM +74,44%
Solidariedade + 56,67%
PP +38,38%
PSC +33,33%
REDE +25,00%
PSD +21,79%
Cidadania + 18,80%
PL +17,34%
PDT -5,14%
PTB -16,54%
PROS -18,00%
MDB -24,25%
PT -28,79%
PSDB -33,76%
PSB -37,47%
PCdoB -42,50%
PV -52,04%

Variations in raw numbers:



Even during PT’s best years, it never surpassed MDB or even PSDB in total municipalities so be cautious before assuming they are dead because of this. National voting is very different. Their loss in % total is similar to the one MDB and PSDB also had, even if those two managed to at least get some important capitals.

Basically, the most known parties by name and also more traditional ones lost space to the “who??” parties or to the ones which changed names, as a whole.