🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Red Velvet]

New AfD record high dropped.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1664937233969758208

It will only grow considering Scholz level of disapproval. 80% disapprove and 20% approve.

EU economic downturn, especially the one in Germany, into full effect but somehow I doubt it’s just that.

https://twitter.com/eleicoeseuropa/status/1665100168377540611?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

[Red Velvet]

A Trump return in the US + Macron and Scholz being so deeply unpopular in their countries that Marine Le Pen and AfD become the top leading political forces in their countries and are greatly positioned for the next elections?

It almost feels like the far-right wave during 2nd half of the 2010s was a tide in Europe in comparison to what could come next.

[Red Velvet]

The far-right surge in Germany lines up with the country being a stand out in the big ones regarding the economy contracting.

If economic situation doesn’t normalize in Europe, the trend is for AfD to keep growing.

[Red Velvet]

BSW hitting double digits in the poll shows what people want from the Left.

BSW, which split from Die Linke, has been described as a far-left / left-wing / left-conservative party, mixing the traditional economic left-wing stances with more conservative stances on social/cultural issues.

Which means, this party is bound to steal voters from AfD in Eastern Germany while also reviving the left after Die Linke got only 4,9% in last German election. A breath of fresh air.

You can compare the poll numbers with the previous poll that didn’t have BSW:

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen - December 14th

Union (Center-Right) - 32%
AfD (Far-Right) - 22%
SPD (Center-Left) - 14%
Grune (Green) - 14%
FDP (Center-Right) - 5%
Die Linke (Left) - 4%
FW (Euroskeptical Center-Right) - 3%

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen - January 11th

Union - 27% (-5)
AfD - 18% (-4)
SPD - 14% (NC)
BSW (NEW, Left) - 14% (+14)
Grune - 12% (-2)
FDP - 4% (-1)
Die Linke - 3% (-1)
FW - 3% (NC)

That said, I wouldn’t underestimate the novelty aspect eventually dying down closer to the election considering all others fell. It will be interesting to see how these BSW numbers develop, if they’re able to grow even more as their name and platform gets out in people’s minds or if they go to similar numbers as the smallest parties as novelty excitement dies down.