Is TX in play for Biden if Trump wins FL+NC? (user search)

Stuart98
Jr. Member

Posts: 1,789

Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: -5.83

Re: Is TX in play for Biden if Trump wins FL+NC?

« on: September 23, 2020, 07:48:57 PM »

It's entirely plausible that Texas votes to the left of both states.

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Stuart98
Jr. Member

Posts: 1,789

Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: -5.83

Re: Is TX in play for Biden if Trump wins FL+NC?

« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2020, 07:54:21 PM »

Quote from: redjohn on September 23, 2020, 07:50:02 PM

Quote from: Stuart98 on September 23, 2020, 07:48:57 PM

It's entirely plausible that Texas votes to the left of both states.

What makes you think it's plausible? Not saying you're wrong.

538 polling average has Biden +1.6 in FL, +1.2 in NC, -0.7 in TX. Just takes a two point polling error in favor of Biden in Texas relative to FL and NC for TX to vote left of them. Totally plausible.

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Stuart98
Jr. Member

Posts: 1,789

Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: -5.83

Re: Is TX in play for Biden if Trump wins FL+NC?

« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2020, 10:26:21 PM »

Quote from: L.D. Smith on September 23, 2020, 09:54:17 PM

And what were the odds of Virginia to the left of Michigan last election exactly? New Hampshire to the left of Pennsylvania? ...Exactly!

Your second example is good, but 538 did give Clinton better odds of winning Virginia on election day than they gave her of winning Michigan.

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