2020 Redistricting in Arizona

[Stuart98]

My attempt at a 10 competitive district map based on the 2018 senate vote, though based on trends it might turn into a very stupid D gerrymander.

[Stuart98]

Ooof I do not think that Grijalva's district there is legal lol

Neither is AZ-1

AZ01 is definitely not VRA protected. Just don't split those reservations.

It's not the VRA - There's rules the commission has to follow in regard to COI's and the Indian Reservations are quite heavily weighted in the rules.

I'm pretty sure Torie's map keeps individual reservations together--I don't think there's some requirement that all reservations have to be in the same district, or the 2000 map wouldn't've happened.

The 2000 map happened because the Navajo and Hopi requested that they be in separate congressional districts due to a dispute. That dispute had been settled by the time 2011 redistricting rolled around.

[Stuart98]

5-5 GOP Dem map. AZ-8 is really wacky though.

This map splits the Tohono Oʼodham reservation and is thus illegal.

[Stuart98]

Does the commission even consider incumbency? I doubt it affects much.

[Stuart98]

10 district Arizona is dead, long live 9 district Arizona.

A least change map doesn't make sense here, the old map was just nonsensical in parts (particularly the 1st, which had no reason to go into Pima or Pinal).

Arizona geography is pretty bad for Rs, hard to draw a map without an R-held suburban district that's a ticking time bomb (or is already D to begin with).

Here's my attempt


Senate 2018


President 2016

[Stuart98]

Don't think the first belongs in maricopa

It has to go there for Fort McDowell and Salt River reservations anyway and it's one of the less ugly ways of handling the thing. The Maricopa portion of the district is 35.1% of its total population and is McSally +4 (compared to the rest of the district being Sinema +5.5)

[Stuart98]

AZ-01 is not VRA protected; you can't get its native population above ~25%, well below what's required to guarantee the native population can elect the candidate of their choice. I still think it should be democratic leaning to maximize the chance of that despite it not being legally required, but that's a normative statement rather than a factual one.

[Stuart98]

Fair map:



President 2020:


3 and 7 are majority hispanic, 1 is majority minority.

AZ geography is really bad for pubs and getting worse.

EDIT: Modified map to make the 2nd more competitive.

[Stuart98]

My weird take. Arizona has interesting geography so you can make a lot of weird maps with it. This map has two hispanic majority Districts along with a hispanic plurality + NA map.

Illegal, you split the Navajo reservation.