Illinois Redistricting Megathread

[Stuart98]

A modest proposal:



President 2020:


The 1st fails in Pres 2016 (Trump +0.2) and AG 2018 (Harold +0.1). The 14th fails in Senate 2016 (Kirk +3.6)

[Stuart98]

Since everyone keeps drawing 14-3 gerrymanders, I guess it's safe to assume there is no practical way to draw a 15-2 gerrymander?

Look at the top post on the page

I don't think that 1st district is sustainable for Democrats throughout the decade (it's arguably more of a 14-1-2 than 15-2), and could easily flip in 2022. These other 14-3 maps would be much safer bets if the party is thinking in the long term.

Sure, but we’d at least have a shot at flipping it and 14-1-2 > 14-3

My issue is more with the configurations (I'd much rather have a downstate district that connects all of the central cities with the Metro East as in Wasserman's map - as I think that would be more efficient in terms of holding up against trends), and the fact that it's still effectively going to be a 14-3 map in the end.

It trended left from 2016 to 2020 and countervailing trends should keep it competitive for perpetuity; writing it off is a mistake imo.

A safer 15-2 is possible if you're willing to go for even thinner, longer snakes; OBD posted one in Lokcord a few hours after I posted mine last week. There's practical limits to how stringy a district can get and I think OBD's map would be a bridge too far even for the IL Dems.

[Stuart98]

Bad map, didn't eliminate Bost and they didn't even make all the seats double digit Biden seats.

[Stuart98]

Bad map, didn't eliminate Bost and they didn't even make all the seats double digit Biden seats.

The downstate IL seats look like double digit Biden seats. What are you thinking of?

Please see the first post of page 13.

[Stuart98]

Two VRA complaints filed against the Democrats map, which is funny. One from East St. Louis blacks that got splintered apart and one from Chicago Hispanics.

https://www.bnd.com/news/local/article255066387.html

Hoping the legislative maps get overturned, congressional gerrymandering can be justified since it counterbalances gerrymandering by the other party elsewhere, but there's no excuse for state legislative gerrymandering.

[Stuart98]

This 15-2 map would be, very literally, the gerrymander to end all gerrymanders. Brutally efficient in a way that would be near-impossible to top without ignoring the VRA and/or going complete spaghetti.



W/ Counties:

Chicago inset:


Nearly every D incumbent lives in their current district, except for Quigley, who is moved to the 16th to open up the 5th for a hispanic candidate. Of the R incumbents, Kinzinger lives in the 1st; Bost lives in the 12th; Davis lives in the 13th; Miller and LaHood live in the 17th.

Demographics of VRA districts:
1st:

2nd:

4th:

5th:

7th:


This is a 15-2 map in every single dataset on DRA.

President 2020:

President 2016:

Senate 2016:

Attorney General 2018:


In 2020 data, the closest district is IL-12, which is Biden +3.4 The second closest is IL-17, which is Biden +11.6. The third closest is IL-03, which is Biden +12.9.

tl;dr get republican members of congress to join democrats in passing a gerrymandering ban speedrun

[Stuart98]

Illinois updated their map

https://twitter.com/MikeMiletichTV/status/1452021179565420544?s=20

Is that plan 14-3 D or 15-2 D? I can't tell.

This is 14-3; any 15-2 will include a snake to Carbondale.

[Stuart98]

They really, really hate Newman it seems.

[Stuart98]

IL dems sending a message that primarying homophobic congressmen means you're dead to them.