Members here who have a solid, documented record of calling past presidential elections right...

[kwabbit]

I’ve only been following elections since 2016, when I was 11 but I like to think I have a fairly decent prediction record. I knew 2016 would be close, predicted a 53-47 senate/dems gaining about 40 in the house in 2018, never bought that 2020 would be a landslide and even here in Canada had Trudeau winning a second term when he was down in most polls. I also always knew this race would be a Biden/Trump rematch.

As of now I’d say Biden pulls this off narrowly but it’s far from a done deal, and as georgiamoderate said a lot can change. We want the answer to this election but simply won’t get it for quite a while. As Adam Carlson (great election analyst, suggest you give him a follow) says, “embrace patience and uncertainty”

Polls essentially nailed 2021 Canadian, actually slightly underrated Tories. Remember that they won the PV in the end. It's just that the Liberals have  a huge geography advantage, and even when O'Toole had a 5 pt lead they were barely going to place first in seats and never were going to form government.

[kwabbit]

Polls essentially nailed 2021 Canadian, actually slightly underrated Tories. Even when O'Toole had a 5 pt lead they were barely going to place first in seats and never were going to form government.

In hindsight, of course. But in 2021 and especially 2019 most predictions/seat models overrated the Tories, even if they actually undershot them in the PV (which no one really even cares about anyway).

Going to election day even with the assumption that an O'Toole-led Tories would have a relative advantage in the suburbs over the Scheer-led Tories, the Liberals were still expected to place first in seats. It is true that it was a surprise that there were no overall gains for the Tories, but it was more of an expectation of like 150ish to 125ish than a tie.