MD (WaPo/UMD): Hogan leads both by double digits

[kwabbit]

It's giving TN-Sen 2018.

Senators Lingle, Weld, Bayh, Bullock, and Bredesen look forward to welcoming him into their caucus!

Unpopular, fair point but against strong incumbent Kerry, Old News, fair point, Old News.

I think Weld 96 is probably the closest race to this one. Bullock wasn't as popular as Weld or Hogan.

The one key difference is that this is an open seat, which helps Hogan, but MD is also more inelastic than MA and partisanship has drastically increased since 1996.

[kwabbit]

Once he's tied to Trump and then has to condemn Trump which in turn hurts him with base GOP voters then he doesn't have a chance. But even without that he doesn't have a chance because the state is far too blue. I think he's counting on Alsobrooks winning the primary so he can pull the "I'm sane White man running against an angry Black woman" card.

How do you tie him to Trump though? He has pretty continuously condemned Trump, I don’t really see that line of attack working.

I do think it is surprising that the far right has rallied behind Hogan though. I would expect his right flank is soft and may not turn out for him.

Obviously no one ever went broke betting on partisanship to carry the day. I do think this is Likely D, but the DSCC will need to spend serious money here to hold what should be a safe seat.

The DSCC doesn’t need to spend a dime there.

They have unlimited money so they should probably drop 25 million. It wouldn't even detract from Ohio or Montana. The only way Hogan can win is if you completely ignore the race and let him set the narrative.