This pollster had an eight point D bias from RV to actual in both 2020 to 2022. Abbott +3 in RV right before the election and Biden +2 RV right before the election. I know plenty of bad R-leaning pollsters get engaged with here, but if they haven't changed their methodology this is almost certainly overrating Biden by quite a bit.
So Trump is on track to win Texas by 12 points?
No, but a Trump +7 YouGov poll is better for Biden than a Trump +4 UT Tyler poll. Trump's probably up by around 10 right now, given the national environment. YouGov did well in TX in 2022 and 2020, especially YouGov/University of Houston. They had Abbott +13 and Trump +5. They have Trump +9 now.
