NJ Legislature 2023 midterms

[kwabbit]

LD-38 and LD-16 are the two stretch seats the GOP would need to tie the Senate. The Democrats are both completely unopposed spending wise. GOP donors could get some good bang for their buck if they invested in some of these NJ races. There are enough conservadems in NJ to thwart Murphy if they got to 19 seats. The legislature is not nearly as polarized as in Virginia.

[kwabbit]

Pretty remarkable that Bramnick’s district is uncontested spending wise. And why are Republicans spending in Newark (not even the Hispanic district)? These are specific to advertising, I think, which is one of the least effective ways of spending in NJ.

Are these spending numbers reflecting internal data or are Dems lighting money on fire in LD-16? I know sometimes you have some inside info. A Biden +20 left-trending seat does not seem to be easily winnable for the GOP but maybe Dems are spending for a reason.

[kwabbit]

With the EV registration looking the way it is, there shouldn't be an unexpected wave. The results will be about persuasion in specific districts so you can't entirely dismiss the possibility of Democrats flipping all of the South Jersey marginal seats or the GOP tying a chamber.

[kwabbit]

With the EV registration looking the way it is, there shouldn't be an unexpected wave. The results will be about persuasion in specific districts so you can't entirely dismiss the possibility of Democrats flipping all of the South Jersey marginal seats or the GOP tying a chamber.

Given the EV and how it looks compared to the past, and how there's still pretty minimal Indy-involvement, the latter seems much more unlikely vs the former.

I agree, but there is an ancestral Dem registration factor in South Jersey where it's closer than the EV indicates. The winds are blowing so strongly in the GOP's favor that even Norcross obsessing over Durr might not be enough. Ciattarelli won that district by 16 points and that's a lot to make up.

Do you have EV data for South Jersey in 2021? That might give a better clue about where things are heading.