On what planet are Yadira Caraveo and Gabe Vasquez in toss-up races? Biden won both districts and Vasquez ousted an incumbent in a Ronchetti district.
Since after WA-03 and MI-07 (I’d say that starts at Tilt D), there aren’t many options to choose from for blue seats to put into the tossup category. They probably wanted to throw a couple on so as not to be accused of bias.
Most will just go for the PA seats.
I guess there’s an argument, but even with Mastriano and Oz bearing the ticket down, it was still in a midterm with 8% inflation and Biden at 40% approval. Cartwright and Wild had no business holding on, but did anyway. I think they start at Lean D.
In a lot of states 2024 won't be as good of an environment for Democrats as 2022. The level of persuasion achieved is just not possible in a presidential year, especially with Biden still being relatively unpopular. Biden would be winning the PV by 10 with that level of persuasion and that seems pretty unlikely. On the national level it will be a better year for Dems, but Shapiro and Whitmer powered blue waves in their states and in 2024 it will now be Biden's performance instructing the down ballot races.
Cartwright is in a Trump seat and Wild is in a Biden +1 seat. Those are about as tossup-y as it gets. Cartwright's been losing his crossover appeal, doing worse than 2020 despite a better or equal environment in PA is not a great sign for him. If PA is D +1 in the Presidential race again, he would likely lose. Wild is in a better position because her seat is bluer, but Shapiro and Fetterman both won her seat by a lot more than she did. She should beat Scheller in any case, the GOP should find someone else.
The same thing is true in Michigan. The environment in Michigan was extremely good for Democrats and it's not going to be replicated in 2022. This probably doesn't mean any seats flipped, because Kildee is strong and the Lansing seat is trending away from them, but James is in a better position than 2022. Biden won't be winning the seat by double digits like Whitmer did.
