It would be Miami-Dade, but that's been so talked about that it wouldn't really be a surprise anymore. For a real surprise, what about Palm Beach or Osceola? In Georgia, it might not be totally out of the question for Kemp to flip Cobb if he wins by around 10 points statewide. Yes, uniform swing would still have it at Abrams +4, but I suspect that Kemp will most overperform in well-off suburbs of Atlanta.
Also, if Lee really rolls here in Tennessee, I think Haywood might flip, leaving Martin with just Davidson and Shelby.
At this point, Miami-Dade going D would be a surprise. Palm Beach and Osceola are the other possible flips, but the EV doesn't look quite so horrendous in those two counties.
