kwabbit
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,914
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« on: January 23, 2022, 01:30:58 PM » |
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The GCB might turn out worse for the Democrats than either 2010 or 2014, but the GOP can’t pick up 60 seats unless it’s R+15 which is is obviously not going to happen. I think the Democrats might end up with less House seats than 2014, which I believe was 188, but the Democrats have succeeded well enough in gerrymandering/redistricting where they’ll likely exceed this.
The environment looks worse than either year. Biden is more unpopular than Obama was and the GCB has turned against the Dems more quickly than it did in those years. There might be a consolidation of support for Biden as there was with Trump, but we don’t know what will happen yet. Unpopularity may peak in the winter before the midterm nowadays rather than the fall of the midterm as occurred historically.
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