NJ GOV (Emerson) - Murphy + 6

[kwabbit]

Well I guess the ads are working if Ciatarelli's favorability is anywhere close to this poll (40/40). He was a virtual unknown before.

Interesting though that Murphy is having an easier time connecting Ciatarelli to Trump than McAuliffe apparently is for Youngkin.

Won't "unskew" because people will get upset here - but just as a matter of fact - Ciatiarelli winning Indies by over 20% would certainly be a swift change from Murphy winning them by 4 in 2017.

You’d have to be living under a rock to not be aware of Ciatarelli at this point. He’s just blanketed the state with Jersey Jack/ Phil Murphy likes taxes ads for months. His ad campaign is pretty deft: that Phil Murphy is a carpetbagger who is pro tax is the NJ GOP’s bread and butter. He’s avoiding being too Trumpy, although Murphy has tied him to that pretty successfully.

[kwabbit]

Haha Memerson.. wait Emerson has one of the best recent track records… Doesn’t Matter Haha Memerson. Murphy +13 Safe D

[kwabbit]

Emerson was the most accurate presidential level poll in 2020 (last 2 polls Biden +4 and Biden +5, final result Biden +4.5), so this has to be taken seriously.  Also makes me think there's about a 90% chance their final VA poll shows a Youngkin lead.  

Emerson also had Newsom +2 and then +20 in California in a matter of weeks, so...

It's funny how we're called D hacks and yet every single time there is a terrible poll for Ds, the blue avatars come running in and ignoring every other poll of the race.

There’s been such a lack of polling that this poll is the best estimate of where the race is. I think Murphy’s probably up by a few more, but it’s tightening. I don’t think Obama gets sent in if Murphy is cruising to re-election. Murphy is more popular than Corzine, but the environment is becoming analogous. An unpopular Dem president gives Rs a shot in NJ, the state likes electing Republican governors.