NJ GOV (Emerson) - Murphy + 6

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1451277107263270927?t=EcEWK_WtoiOK-8Go...

[Matty]

Ouch

[Roll Roons]

Whaaa.....

No way. I've always said that we shouldn't sleep on this race but DAMN!

[Matty]

"Seven percent (7%) of voters are still undecided; among the undecided voters, 59% are leaning towards Ciattarelli and 41% are leaning towards Murphy. When these voters are allocated, the race tightens to four points, with Murphy at 52% and Ciattarelli at 48%."

[jamestroll]

Ouch

Now do you see why I rate VA as lean R?

[Mr.Phips]

Apparently polarization only works in the Republicans’ favor.

[MT Treasurer]

Clearly they oversampled low-prop Republicans (who will stay home without Trump on the ballot) to add fuel to the Dems in Disarray media conspiracy like they did in CA. Let the 'unskewing' begin.

Sticking with Murphy +10, but the people who still think it’s 2017 are probably going to be very disappointed soon.

[One Term Floridian]

Memerson

[Senator Incitatus]

Still going with roughly 54-46 Murphy. Clearly good poll for Jack, probably too late to fundraise off this stuff in a meaningful way. All that money's headed to Virginia anyway.

[wbrocks67]

Well I guess the ads are working if Ciatarelli's favorability is anywhere close to this poll (40/40). He was a virtual unknown before.

Interesting though that Murphy is having an easier time connecting Ciatarelli to Trump than McAuliffe apparently is for Youngkin.

Won't "unskew" because people will get upset here - but just as a matter of fact - Ciatiarelli winning Indies by over 20% would certainly be a swift change from Murphy winning them by 4 in 2017.

[kwabbit]

Well I guess the ads are working if Ciatarelli's favorability is anywhere close to this poll (40/40). He was a virtual unknown before.

Interesting though that Murphy is having an easier time connecting Ciatarelli to Trump than McAuliffe apparently is for Youngkin.

Won't "unskew" because people will get upset here - but just as a matter of fact - Ciatiarelli winning Indies by over 20% would certainly be a swift change from Murphy winning them by 4 in 2017.

You’d have to be living under a rock to not be aware of Ciatarelli at this point. He’s just blanketed the state with Jersey Jack/ Phil Murphy likes taxes ads for months. His ad campaign is pretty deft: that Phil Murphy is a carpetbagger who is pro tax is the NJ GOP’s bread and butter. He’s avoiding being too Trumpy, although Murphy has tied him to that pretty successfully.

[S019]

Emerson uses MTurk, until they stop doing this, I won't take their polls seriously, good that they finally believe in undecideds though

also 50+44+7=101, just fantastic

[kwabbit]

Haha Memerson.. wait Emerson has one of the best recent track records… Doesn’t Matter Haha Memerson. Murphy +13 Safe D

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Seven percent (7%) of voters are still undecided; among the undecided voters, 59% are leaning towards Ciattarelli and 41% are leaning towards Murphy. When these voters are allocated, the race tightens to four points, with Murphy at 52% and Ciattarelli at 48%.

Murphy +4 with leaners 

[Progressive Pessimist]

Even though I think Ciatarelli could likely reach 44% support in the general election, I still want to call this poll way too bearish on Murphy.

But then again, everything seems to be crashing down on the Democratic Party lately, so maybe this is the reality. I can't even take solace in my own state anymore...

[SnowLabrador]

I don't think Ciattarelli has enough time to catch up to Murphy. That said, the red wave is happening right before our eyes.

[Xing]

Yeah, Democrats should just concede AZ/GA/NH/NV, and probably CO as well, at this point. I mean, now that polls are showing what I like Republicans doing well, obviously they’re perfectly accurate, nothing can change between now and 2022 (or 2024, for that matter), and Democrats are going to do worse than 1994/2010.

Anyway, I could see this being a high-single digit win for Murphy, but Atlas is overreacting as usual, and it’s kind of funny how the forum has done a 180 on trusting polls since December of last year.

[Skill and Chance]

Emerson was the most accurate presidential level poll in 2020 (last 2 polls Biden +4 and Biden +5, final result Biden +4.5), so this has to be taken seriously.  Also makes me think there's about a 90% chance their final VA poll shows a Youngkin lead. 

[ElectionsGuy]

It tightens even more to +4 when leaners are added.

I didn't think we would see a poll this close. I have a hard time believing it, but the crosstabs look decent.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yeah, Democrats should just concede AZ/GA/NH/NV, and probably CO as well, at this point. I mean, now that polls are showing what I like Republicans doing well, obviously they’re perfectly accurate, nothing can change between now and 2022 (or 2024, for that matter), and Democrats are going to do worse than 1994/2010.

Anyway, I could see this being a high-single digit win for Murphy, but Atlas is overreacting as usual, and it’s kind of funny how the forum has done a 180 on trusting polls since December of last year.

Considering that this forum is overwhelmingly populated by Democratic partisans, I don't know how you can say 'this forum' is happy with the results of the poll. I am, because I despise this governor (that's just my opinion though) but I still rate the race Likely D and don't just believe one poll is gospel. Everything I've expressed about polls leading up to 2022 remains the same.

Besides, did you not see the reactions to the Trafalgar and Monmouth polls for Virginia? People are denying those polls while they trusted Biden +10 in Wisconsin or Biden +6 in Florida last year. And you'll see a lot of uncritical trust for certain Senate and generic ballot polls next year too. This seems like it's more directed at me and a few others rather than everybody.

[Matty]

just saying:

this poll completely makes sense if the recent va polling is accurate. It would be almost identical swings from biden margins in the state.

[wbrocks67]

Emerson was the most accurate presidential level poll in 2020 (last 2 polls Biden +4 and Biden +5, final result Biden +4.5), so this has to be taken seriously.  Also makes me think there's about a 90% chance their final VA poll shows a Youngkin lead.  

Emerson also had Newsom +2 and then +20 in California in a matter of weeks, so...

It's funny how we're called D hacks and yet every single time there is a terrible poll for Ds, the blue avatars come running in and ignoring every other poll of the race.

[UncleSam]

Emerson was the most accurate presidential level poll in 2020 (last 2 polls Biden +4 and Biden +5, final result Biden +4.5), so this has to be taken seriously.  Also makes me think there's about a 90% chance their final VA poll shows a Youngkin lead.  

Emerson also had Newsom +2 and then +20 in California in a matter of weeks, so...

It's funny how we're called D hacks and yet every single time there is a terrible poll for Ds, the blue avatars come running in and ignoring every other poll of the race.

I mean...those CA numbers are believable. Newsom gained momentum quickly once he had Elder to demonize, and he got Dems to rally around him and come home.

The final margin ended up being about No+24, so they did understate Ds by a few points. I think they likely are here as well, and could see Murphy winning by 8-9 quite easily. I do think it’ll end up being a disappointing but reasonably comfortable margin.

[wbrocks67]

Emerson was the most accurate presidential level poll in 2020 (last 2 polls Biden +4 and Biden +5, final result Biden +4.5), so this has to be taken seriously.  Also makes me think there's about a 90% chance their final VA poll shows a Youngkin lead.  

Emerson also had Newsom +2 and then +20 in California in a matter of weeks, so...

It's funny how we're called D hacks and yet every single time there is a terrible poll for Ds, the blue avatars come running in and ignoring every other poll of the race.

I mean...those CA numbers are believable. Newsom gained momentum quickly once he had Elder to demonize, and he got Dems to rally around him and come home.

The final margin ended up being about No+24, so they did understate Ds by a few points. I think they likely are here as well, and could see Murphy winning by 8-9 quite easily. I do think it’ll end up being a disappointing but reasonably comfortable margin.

Newsom was never only winning "no" by single digits in California.

[Senator Incitatus]

Emerson was the most accurate presidential level poll in 2020 (last 2 polls Biden +4 and Biden +5, final result Biden +4.5), so this has to be taken seriously.  Also makes me think there's about a 90% chance their final VA poll shows a Youngkin lead.  

They also barely polled NJ, though their final poll in September was pretty much bang-on the margin.

Emerson was the most accurate presidential level poll in 2020 (last 2 polls Biden +4 and Biden +5, final result Biden +4.5), so this has to be taken seriously.  Also makes me think there's about a 90% chance their final VA poll shows a Youngkin lead. 

Emerson also had Newsom +2 and then +20 in California in a matter of weeks, so...

It's funny how we're called D hacks and yet every single time there is a terrible poll for Ds, the blue avatars come running in and ignoring every other poll of the race.

Show me the "other polls" being ignored. This is the only independent post-debate polling, and the other two most recent polls also have it at nine points.

We'll probably get another Monmouth and another Rutgers-Eagleton and that's it. Maybe a Q-poll. This is what we have to go on right now, and it matches what anyone who has been following the race thinks: a tighter-than-should-have-been win for Murphy.

Bottom line: wait for more polls before saying Murphy has either sewed it up or is in real trouble.