Haven't really been paying attention, but why is Macron trading at 90+% in betting markets? Like, obviously he's got a lead, but I thought it was high single digits?
The Economist's French election model currently has Macron at 89% to win.
The Economist model was too aggressive during the 2020 Presidential Election however. If Elliott Morris is still the architect of the models at the Economist, I would be surprised if this model wasn't too certain. Morris didn't seem too retrospective after his model did poorly last time.
