kwabbit
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,973
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« on: March 01, 2021, 01:02:37 AM » |
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Looking strictly at demographics, North Dakota is extremely white. Maybe 70% of its electorate is non-college educated White. The state is also largely rural with few high-density areas. Put this all together and you have a state that is nearly optimized to Trump's coalition and consists mainly of groups that trended R under Trump.
A more local factor is the expansion of the oil industry. You have these voters who might already vote Republican at high rates, but now they also work in an industry that is strongly aligned with the Republican party. Voila and you have a 35 point Trump win.
It wouldn't surprise me if Dem performance continued falling even more. The Dems still overperform the demographics in most counties near the Minnesota border, a remnant of their old coalition. And I don't think the suburban voters in Cass, Grand Forks, and Burleigh that might've voted Dem in 2020 because of Trump's conduct and the intense COVID-19 crisis in the state are the type to stick with the Dems. This state might be won by the 2024 GOP nominee by 40 points.
The Dem growth could continue in Cass and Grand Forks and limit the damage to around 30 points GOP, but this state is long, long, long gone for Democrats.
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