Why is North Dakota more red than ever now?

[un]

Even though the state did swing a tiny bit more towards Biden in 2020, the state has no signs of getting any bluer any time soon. It's interesting, since it was considered a tossup in 2008, and McCain won in 2008 by less than 10, and up until 2018, had a Democratic senator. The only two Democratic counties anymore are both majority Native, even Cass County couldn't flip to Biden. So, what changed in the past decade?

[kaikea1]

Oil

[mileslunn]

Discovery of shale oil and Democrats stance on environment bad for state and very unpopular.

[kwabbit]

Looking strictly at demographics, North Dakota is extremely white. Maybe 70% of its electorate is non-college educated White. The state is also largely rural with few high-density areas. Put this all together and you have a state that is nearly optimized to Trump's coalition and consists mainly of groups that trended R under Trump.

A more local factor is the expansion of the oil industry. You have these voters who might already vote Republican at high rates, but now they also work in an industry that is strongly aligned with the Republican party. Voila and you have a 35 point Trump win.

It wouldn't surprise me if Dem performance continued falling even more. The Dems still overperform the demographics in most counties near the Minnesota border, a remnant of their old coalition. And I don't think the suburban voters in Cass, Grand Forks, and Burleigh that might've voted Dem in 2020 because of Trump's conduct and the intense COVID-19 crisis in the state are the type to stick with the Dems. This state might be won by the 2024 GOP nominee by 40 points.

The Dem growth could continue in Cass and Grand Forks and limit the damage to around 30 points GOP, but this state is long, long, long gone for Democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kent Conrad whom held up Byron Dorgan are gone and so is Johnson in SD the blue dogs who supported Bush W tax cuts in 2003. It's not worth contesting anymore

[Hope For A New Era]

Obama was exceptionally strong in the Midwest for some reason, far more than anyone realized at the time. And oil.

[Woody]

Most likely because they feared what Biden ended up doing, with his job-killing executive orders:

[Bootes Void]

Most likely because they feared what Biden ended up doing, with his job-killing executive orders:

I wonder why the pipeline made no progress whatsoever during the 4 years of the Trump presidency

[ultraviolet]

Oil

Wait what? How do you post as a guest?

[Agonized-Statism]

The North Dakota oil boom and subsequent oil glut, which started just in time for a right-wing populist (the first in a while not to be a Southern Evangelical). Also, a long-term trend to the right in the Plains since the Farm Crisis.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Oil and white people-a truly Republican combination.

[TDAS04]

Both Dakotas are relatively rural, lacking any major cities.  That’s a big reason why they’ve trended Republican recently, while more urban/suburban Kansas and Nebraska have trended Democratic.

[TDAS04]

Has anyone else noticed how much Cass County—the state’s main urban center—has trended left?  In 1996, it was barely to the left of the state (Clinton lost the county by 5 points, while losing ND by 7).  Now, Cass County voted 30 points to the left of the state.

Urban vs. rural trends are real.