2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[kwabbit]

I wonder if James is the favorite in MI senate. If Trump is just a narrow underdog, he might have the edge given that he's outrunning Trump a good amount in Oakland and Wayne.

[kwabbit]

NV is looking to be a nail biter. I have a feeling the election day votes in Clark may be better for Trump than expected, although Ralston is confident in Biden. If Trump could win it that would give him another route to 270. The final map could look a little screwy.

[kwabbit]

I think James is favored in MI-Senate at this point, along with Collins in Maine. Thinking the final breakdown will be 53-47, but those Georgia runoffs could go either way (expecting Purdue-Ossoff to go runoff).

[kwabbit]

NV is looking to be a nail biter. I have a feeling the election day votes in Clark may be better for Trump than expected, although Ralston is confident in Biden. If Trump could win it that would give him another route to 270. The final map could look a little screwy.

If Ralston is bullish on Biden in NV, then I'm bullish on him as well.

He's been getting less confident over time however; I don't think he'd want to contradict his prediction until its certain to go one way.

[kwabbit]

I think Biden will win Wisconsin. Why are people not looking at the swings in the counties that are almost 100% reporting?

Dane has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats.
Ozaukee has a 7-point swing towards the Democrats.
Waukesha has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats, and I would expect it to become a little bit larger  because there's a chunk of uncounted absentee vote.
Eau Claire has a 3-point swing towards the Democrats.
Racine has a 1-point swing towards the Democrats.
St Croix has a 2-point swing towards the Democrats.

Up north, Douglas has a 2-point swing, Bayfield a 5-point swing, Ashland is staying pretty much the same.

I appreciate that the swings are mixed elsewhere in the state, but the aforementioned counties put together have a large population. Wisconsin only needs a swing of less than 1 percent to flip.

If Biden doesn't underperform horribly in Milwaukee and Kenosha, I think he's winning.

The rural counties are providing larger vote margins than last time, which is the counterbalance to the suburban swing to Biden.

[kwabbit]

Any idea how the Senate will shake out? I see PredictIt seems to feel pretty good about Republicans holding it and Susan Collins looks like she’s in good shape, but I can’t figure out the overall picture one way or the other.

Tillis almost certain to win, Peters likely to beat James but some uncertainty there, Collins very likely to win, the GA races going to runoff. Probably 50R-48D with the two GA races being decided in January.

[kwabbit]

fink nooooo

Huh?

Finkenauer lost in IA-01.

Not really surprising. She barely won in a D midterm and the district is demographic hell for Dems.

I wonder if IA-2 flips as well. Miller-Meeks has a 282 vote margin with >99% counted, according to DecisionDeskHQ.

[kwabbit]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609
People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

These counties in South Texas have always had anemic turnout. If they're engaged, turnouts gonna boom. Trump's gain was a mix of persuasion and turnout out low propensity voters for him. But Biden's still going to gain votes if turnout increases that much.

[kwabbit]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609
People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

These counties in South Texas have always had anemic turnout. If they're engaged, turnouts gonna boom. Trump's gain was a mix of persuasion and turnout out low propensity voters for him. But Biden's still going to gain votes if turnout increases that much.

It just seems odd bc Trump put no effort into TX (like he did FL)

He doesn't have to personally go to TX to attract these voters. My guess is that these voters may have liked Trump's message outside of immigration in 2016 but his focus on immigration drove them away. Now that he stopped talking about it they flocked to him.

The Tejanos were always a group that could swing R, especially with Trump at the top of the ticket. They're working class and strongly disconnected from the pro-suburbanite message of the Biden campaign. This was definitely going on for a while. Dave Wasserman wouldn't shut up about it and Kamala Harris made a last minute trip to McAllen.

It's long been said that Hispanics were a natural constituency for the GOP if they stopped talking about immigration. Perhaps there was some truth to that.

[kwabbit]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609
People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

These counties in South Texas have always had anemic turnout. If they're engaged, turnouts gonna boom. Trump's gain was a mix of persuasion and turnout out low propensity voters for him. But Biden's still going to gain votes if turnout increases that much.

It just seems odd bc Trump put no effort into TX (like he did FL)

He doesn't have to personally go to TX to attract these voters. My guess is that these voters may have liked Trump's message outside of immigration in 2016 but his focus on immigration drove them away. Now that he stopped talking about it they flocked to him.

The Tejanos were always a group that could swing R, especially with Trump at the top of the ticket. They're working class and strongly disconnected from the pro-suburbanite message of the Biden campaign. This was definitely going on for a while. Dave Wasserman wouldn't shut up about it and Kamala Harris made a last minute trip to McAllen.

It's long been said that Hispanics were a natural constituency for the GOP if they stopped talking about immigration. Perhaps there was some truth to that.

For them to go full-on that path, they'd have to sacrifice voters in the Rust Belt. I don't see how they'd be able to maintain that kind of coalition.

Trump was able to do both to some extent this time around. If rural Midwest can be fired up about some other culture war issue not revolving Hispanics, then maybe both can be had for the GOP. Perhaps this result was the focus on BLM to rile up the GOP base instead of immigration.

[kwabbit]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609
People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

These counties in South Texas have always had anemic turnout. If they're engaged, turnouts gonna boom. Trump's gain was a mix of persuasion and turnout out low propensity voters for him. But Biden's still going to gain votes if turnout increases that much.

It just seems odd bc Trump put no effort into TX (like he did FL)

He doesn't have to personally go to TX to attract these voters. My guess is that these voters may have liked Trump's message outside of immigration in 2016 but his focus on immigration drove them away. Now that he stopped talking about it they flocked to him.

The Tejanos were always a group that could swing R, especially with Trump at the top of the ticket. They're working class and strongly disconnected from the pro-suburbanite message of the Biden campaign. This was definitely going on for a while. Dave Wasserman wouldn't shut up about it and Kamala Harris made a last minute trip to McAllen.

It's long been said that Hispanics were a natural constituency for the GOP if they stopped talking about immigration. Perhaps there was some truth to that.

Didn't Bush actually win Tejanos? Like Hillary was obviously uniquely strong with Latinos, but this isn't 2004 all over again.

Idk if he won them but he did a hint better than Trump in the Rio Grande Valley. Bush was governor of Texas though, so Trump might've done better in a relative sense.

[kwabbit]

When is Maricopa delivering its next round of ballots?

[kwabbit]

When is Maricopa delivering its next round of ballots?

They are being threatened and yelled at by armed MAGA scum and it's causing delays.

Well that's annoying