I wonder what they'll do for Long Island. It seems like it's just fundamentally more Republican now. The current map really isn't bad for them there. Weakening NY-04 might allow Despacito to survive, Garbarino is pretty strong, maybe LaLota's seat could be flipped if LI reverts to its pre-2021 partisanship. Suozzi will probably flip NY-03 though because of Santos stink.
At this point they should concede NY-02 and NY-01 in order to make NY-03 like Biden + 13.
There's no reason for Ds to concede NY-1 if they get to redraw. Compared to original map, it only makes sense to concede NY-11 into a Staten Island pack and even then if the court will let them get away with it, why not go for the 22-4? That said, I would make NY-4 bluer from the originally drawn map.
Staten Island is easy to pair with inflexibly D+80 areas of Brooklyn, some of which did not swing against Hochul at all. There's no reason for them to concede it. Doing 3-1 in LI might turn into 1-3 though, which is why 2-2 could be the way to go. Move Despacito's seat to Biden+16, Santos to Biden+17, both will flip. Creating 3 Biden +10 seats in LI is very risky at this point.
