2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[kwabbit]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2fce2824-2fa8-49ab-a23d-d5292ee936fb

Bit of a quick map. I have never arranged a VA map like this, putting so much of the Southside in the Richmond district. Causes a much different layout in Western Virginia. The Southside/Richmond is Almost Black Majority, could definitely be made to actually be that way. Pretty fair partisanship wise, maybe 5-4-2? With one of the swings lean D and the other
a tossup?

[kwabbit]

If Virginia does gain a district, it may be possible to draw an Asian-plurality district in west Fairfax/east Loudoun counties by 2030. Would be very interesting - the first such district outside of Hawaii, California and NYC, and the first truly new Asian-interest seat since Grace Meng’s created in the 2010 cycle.

Across the south there is lots of potential for Asian plurality/majority seats in the future. Georgia south of Cumming and Texas in Denton and Sugarland you can almost draw one as is. Heck even North Carolina you can draw a majority asian state house seat

I’d be surprised if there isn’t atleast one after 2030 somewhere in the house

In GA, you can get about 23% Asian, 44% White by total pop. In Denton/Collin you can get about 30% Asian, 42% White. In NJ in/around Middlesex County, you can get 35% Asian and 39% White. By 2030, I'm guessing the TX and NJ Asian populations will be large enough to draw a plurality seat.

However, a 40% Asian, 35% White seat is still plurality, maybe even majority White electorate. Asian voters, even wealthy ones, aren't particularly high propensity, and these Asians in suburban areas live among extremely high educated Whites. Not to mention the fact that 'Asian' refers to East Asians, Muslim South Asians, and Hindu South Asians, which weakens the argument further. I doubt even an advocacy group would sue for a plurality Asian district for this reason.

[kwabbit]

If Virginia does gain a district, it may be possible to draw an Asian-plurality district in west Fairfax/east Loudoun counties by 2030. Would be very interesting - the first such district outside of Hawaii, California and NYC, and the first truly new Asian-interest seat since Grace Meng’s created in the 2010 cycle.

Across the south there is lots of potential for Asian plurality/majority seats in the future. Georgia south of Cumming and Texas in Denton and Sugarland you can almost draw one as is. Heck even North Carolina you can draw a majority asian state house seat

I’d be surprised if there isn’t atleast one after 2030 somewhere in the house

In GA, you can get about 23% Asian, 44% White by total pop. In Denton/Collin you can get about 30% Asian, 42% White. In NJ in/around Middlesex County, you can get 35% Asian and 39% White. By 2030, I'm guessing the TX and NJ Asian populations will be large enough to draw a plurality seat.

However, a 40% Asian, 35% White seat is still plurality, maybe even majority White electorate. Asian voters, even wealthy ones, aren't particularly high propensity, and these Asians in suburban areas live among extremely high educated Whites. Not to mention the fact that 'Asian' refers to East Asians, Muslim South Asians, and Hindu South Asians, which weakens the argument further. I doubt even an advocacy group would sue for a plurality Asian district for this reason.

Admittedly the California process prioritizes communities of interest to an unusual extent, but it's worth recalling that in 2010, when given the opportunity to create an Asian district around San Jose, the commission immediately did so even though it involved bringing together groups with nothing in common except their Census designation.

In GA's case, the area could likely not produce an Asian Dem by 2030. That leaves Texas and NJ as the two cases. In Texas' case, the area has a chance of being solidly Dem, but the Texas GOP have guaranteed through gerrymandering majorities through the decade. They wouldn't draw the district.

I view NJ as the state likeliest to draw an maximal Asian district. Not necessarily with that intent, but parochial interests could align to create such a district. Bonnie Watson Coleman's upcoming retirement significantly changes the reality of NJ's congressional map. Assuming Democrats are still in soft control of the redistricting process, but are still willing to throw a bone to Republicans, the following map could occur:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ee01f685-75e9-4c9d-bdd0-319d83a56ea7

Watson Coleman retiring frees up a huge chunk of Democratic land for Kim to take in Mercer, bar very Asian West Windsor. Frank Pallone's district, assuming he's still around, can snake into Union County. A large gap in Middlesex County is opened up to comprise the bulk of a district. It takes in the heavily Asian towns along Route 1, as well as some parts of Mercer and Somerset. It's bounded to the north by the Keanmander.

38% White 33% Asian. This version doesn't maximize the Asian percentage, but it should be plurality Asian by 2030. It was 49% White 26% Asian in 2010, so I'm guessing it'll be something like 32% White 37% Asian by 2030, and with further adjustments probably could be made 40% Asian.