2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[republican1993]

i'm in the 18-29 range and voted trump lol

[republican1993]

i'm in the 18-29 range and voted trump lol

Which is fine. But the vast majority of polls has the age range as being overwhelmingly pro-Biden.

my age group is mostly liberal, but def have more strong conservative voices than my parents when they were my age my age group (mid 20s) are def more conservative leaning socially liberal they might not say they are voting him which happens when i speak to a lot of people if i ask them.

[republican1993]

are republicans closing the gap in AZ since voting has started or has it been stable? i havent been keeping up

[republican1993]

are republicans closing the gap in AZ since voting has started or has it been stable? i havent been keeping up

https://twitter.com/TRElections/status/1320213142413168640

but is that ballots returned to date in 2020? we still have more time to go if they are only down by 40k.

[republican1993]

are republicans closing the gap in AZ since voting has started or has it been stable? i havent been keeping up

https://twitter.com/TRElections/status/1320213142413168640

but is that ballots returned to date in 2020? we still have more time to go if they are only down by 40k.

The Democrats are where the GOP was before E-Day, with 11 days left. That's a huge advantage.

i guess we will see what happens i'd like trump to win arizona.

[republican1993]

are republicans closing the gap in AZ since voting has started or has it been stable? i havent been keeping up

https://twitter.com/TRElections/status/1320213142413168640

but is that ballots returned to date in 2020? we still have more time to go if they are only down by 40k.

Oh they will close the gap. Just it will nowhere be near the 16/18 GOP leads, and 18 was still a D+4/5 win in Maricopa despite the GOP advantage. A small GOP EV lead or tie seems to comport with high single digit maricopa lead for Biden  in polls, and that would basically guarantee a Biden victory in the state

Pima County (home of Tucson) is also looking excellent for Ds

how much did the R's lead by? was is it similar to now having the reps behind?

[republican1993]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320387433792503808?s=21

Oof the In person gap is slowing down already. Republicans can’t keep up.

reps normally start off slow in the morning and come out in the afternoon from what we have been seeing & since it's like soul of the polls i can see like 15-20k rep increase but we will see.

[republican1993]

MN, WI,and MI are around 40-45% of 2016 turnout - how does this look to anyone? not sure what to think of it.

[republican1993]

MN, WI,and MI are around 40-45% of 2016 turnout - how does this look to anyone? not sure what to think of it.

They'll at least get to their usual rates of 69-80%. You can't count MN's turnout other than on Fridays, since that's the only date in which they update.

On the rest, for WI, what matters is who is turning out in the state, as in, the counties that are pulling more than their weight in the electorate. In D favored elections, Dane punches way above the line, while Milwaukee simply turns out at about their weight (rather than below). So far, that's what we're seeing this year in WI

I don't know much about Michigan.

got it - out of all of these states is "republicans" doing the best?

[republican1993]

Interesting link - Bloomberg's data company estimates Biden is up by 11 in Florida with modeled vote so far - or over 600k votes.

https://www.hawkfish.us/early-vote-florida/fl-102520

that looks good for trump imo with the remaining votes outstanding for him to move the needle based on this

[republican1993]

I just finished voting after waiting 4 hours in the rain and cold. My first presidential election vote ever.

It feels great! Straight blue from Biden/Harris and all the way down-ballot.

Much larger turnout than I expected, most people are just fed up with Trump.

awesome!!

[republican1993]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320828588820697088?s=21
 Y’all were so mad this morning when I said a 50k day was in store.
I’m

im hoping for 60-65 to get closer to break even

[republican1993]

what does everyone think of the AA vote share to date in GA? only at 28% below the exit polls in 2016

[republican1993]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1321193115831599104

Let's see if Republicans close the gap by this weekend since things are in reverse this year.

[republican1993]

Travis finished at 494,704! Over 10k more than the 2018 all-time record! Now it’s all about pushing that sh**t as high as we possibly can. If we can get to 650k or even more after factoring inElection Day voters, Biden has this on lock.

https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct28.pdf

BOOOO

[republican1993]

republicans are now tied in maricopa county with early mail in ballots assuming the NPA/others break by 10 points to biden, republicans need to secure around 50k or so to have a shot at winning the county? does anyone have any guesses on this?

does anyone have a good website for AZ that breaks out the vote?

[republican1993]

republicans are now tied in maricopa county with early mail in ballots assuming the NPA/others break by 10 points to biden, republicans need to secure around 50k or so to have a shot at winning the county? does anyone have any guesses on this?

does anyone have a good website for AZ that breaks out the vote?

https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns

thanks does it update every other day?

[republican1993]

republicans are now tied in maricopa county with early mail in ballots assuming the NPA/others break by 10 points to biden, republicans need to secure around 50k or so to have a shot at winning the county? does anyone have any guesses on this?

does anyone have a good website for AZ that breaks out the vote?

They are still behind by about 11K.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1321570284197965824?s=20
Republicans are gonna take the lead here as there are just purely more registered Republicans here, but they are not even close to where the county was in 2018 when Sinema won.

yes, but they say it's the opposite of 2018 where repbs voted early and dems closed the gap towards the end, just like repbs are doing now, but i think if they get like 30-50k lead that gives them a shot of keeping it close state wide if the rural margins are there. there isn't in person voting in AZ right?

[republican1993]

any idea of where we might land with dem advantage in florida? currently it's down to 126k

[republican1993]

how is black turnout the highest when they are at only 27% of the electorate in GA & NC at 19% which is below the 2016 turnout rates? just curious

[republican1993]

Republicans now hold a +23k lead over dems in Maricopa County,AZ

R - 577,185
D - 554,026
O - 403,687

assuming the independents go to the D's by 10 points it will be a pretty close in this county.

[republican1993]

Republicans now hold a +23k lead over dems in Maricopa County,AZ

R - 577,185
D - 554,026
O - 403,687

assuming the independents go to the D's by 10 points it will be a pretty close in this county.

You're overlooking the fact that polling of early voters shows that Biden is getting votes from considerably more Republicans than Trump is getting from Democrats.

yes of course, do you think he is bleeding the same amount of mcsally in 2018 or getting at least 90% of reps?

[republican1993]

Republicans now hold a +23k lead over dems in Maricopa County,AZ

R - 577,185
D - 554,026
O - 403,687

assuming the independents go to the D's by 10 points it will be a pretty close in this county.

You're overlooking the fact that polling of early voters shows that Biden is getting votes from considerably more Republicans than Trump is getting from Democrats.

yes of course, do you think he is bleeding the same amount of mcsally in 2018 or getting at least 90% of reps?

Among early voters he's probably doing at least that poorly with Republicans, but he'll do considerably better than that among Election Day voters. (which makes sense -- those Republicans most inclined to vote for Biden are also the most likely to heed advice to vote early, while those most loyal to Trump are most likely to reject voting by mail).

exactly im nervous to see what happens

[republican1993]

Polls are also showing much higher cross-over by Rs for Biden than Ds for Trump, which could negate any R registration advantage. If Biden wins 95% of Ds and 10% of Republicans, Biden would win 583K-548K (51%-48%) even without Indies factored in.

Republicans now hold a +23k lead over dems in Maricopa County,AZ

R - 577,185
D - 554,026
O - 403,687

assuming the independents go to the D's by 10 points it will be a pretty close in this county.

Biden will win 'Other' voters by a whole hell of a lot more than 10%

interesting, so how much of a margin do you think reps need in maricopa to be competitive statewide?

[republican1993]

I think the Sinema race is a good benchmark. She won Maricopa by 3% (and the whole state by 2%) even though registration was +6R. I would guess the Republican registration gap would probably need to be around +8 or so in Maricopa for Trump to win.

Polls are also showing much higher cross-over by Rs for Biden than Ds for Trump, which could negate any R registration advantage. If Biden wins 95% of Ds and 10% of Republicans, Biden would win 583K-548K (51%-48%) even without Indies factored in.

Republicans now hold a +23k lead over dems in Maricopa County,AZ

R - 577,185
D - 554,026
O - 403,687

assuming the independents go to the D's by 10 points it will be a pretty close in this county.

Biden will win 'Other' voters by a whole hell of a lot more than 10%

interesting, so how much of a margin do you think reps need in maricopa to be competitive statewide?

this is great thank you, where are we at % as of today statewide? I know dems were ahead statewide.