It is finally clear to me of the resilience of the two states in continuing to exist even under massive pressure. Both countries have integrated the elites of all their respective problematic regions and ethnic groups and have shown flexibility in doing just enough reforms to get over major hurdles.
With regards to external threats, there is no major near threat. For Israel, recent events among its neighbors has been a boon for its external stability. The Syrian Civil War wiped out, weakened, and divided several Palestinian militant groups—Al-Saiqa, PFLP-GC, the Syrian based PPSF, and I believe a few others were totally dissolved through combat—along with forcefully ending Syrian external capabilities through this Civil war. Ba’athism and internationalist Wahhabi Jihadism and Muslim Brotherhood Islamism is by all accounts dead. The Israeli economy is going to greatly prosper from its new Arab trading partners unless something goes awry.
Iran has a more complicated external situation due to having very real state-based geopolitical opponents, however they are all counterbalanced in some way by other states or Iranian proxies. The GCC is basically nonfunctional due to MbS being a weak leader; being defied openly by the UAE, Qatar, and Oman who want to make $$$$ in Iran and have their own regional delusions ambitions. Somehow they allegedly sank relations with Jordan, which is also weird to me. Any external threat in Afghanistan is a non-factor due to relationship building with Northern Tajik militias and Shia groups. I also seriously doubt that Azerbaijan will annex the north of Iran given that they will face an opportunistic Armenia and a pestered Russia, along with a rally-round-a-flag effect with the birthplace of Iranian nationalism under threat.
See that’s the thing, there’s no real internal pressure in any of these countries. Enough has been said of Israeli internal stability even with its ••••••••• system resembling ••••• •••••• or Malaysia’s Bumipetra system, but that is chump change tbh. Iran is the same, with most of the in-Iran opposition being wholly Iranian nationalists; CPI, National Front, a few liberals, Islamist dissidents. They know now that attempting a Revolution is both unrealistic given their size and not optimal given external circumstances as of this writing. Meanwhile while Iran handles internal opposition with more state sanctioned violence, the welfare system continues to operate to bribe people to just move on. Also the fact that Iran wants to play NATO and the EU against China in an investment war means positive economic metrics are just around the corner.
Both Iran and Israel are unlikely to go to war with one another, and I doubt Israel smuggles in a dirty bomb to Tehran, so I have a feeling that both will outlast the Saudi dynasty into the 2040s. After then, any number of variations of effects are on the table; Turkish territorial ambitions, loss of Russian cooperation, departure of American presence in West Asia, Netanyahu making a new comeback at the dawn of death, Kahanists deciding to throw a hissy fit, and many more.
Will the Saudis survive this??? It would be truly chilling if Daesh controlled Mecca.
