Could any Democrats have won back WV, KY, MO, AR, etc. in 2004?

[Samof94]

In 2008 the RCP average for McCain vs Clinton in KY was McCain +1.7%. AR was Clinton +13.4%. Only one poll was taken in WV which was Clinton +5%, given Gore only lost it narrowly and it had previously been a blue state it may well have been winnable. Missouri polls seemed pretty close, probably a Bush win given 2004 was less pro-Dem than 2008.

Well 2004 was far different of an environment than 2008 was and Bush was a far better fit for those states than McCain. Those numbers actually show it, if KY was McCain 1.7 vs Hillary in 08 , Bush in 04 wins it easily (remember even Bill in 1996 barely won KY) , MO and WV  would be a narrow Bush victory(around 3-5 points) .AR I agree Hillary wins it but even that just barely(1-2 points).  

I never saw the 2004 South as competitive no matter who ran. This isn’t Clinton’s era nor is it the 2020’s

[Samof94]

KY nope it was gone by then


AR could have won by Hillary and MO and WV could have won by Gephardt but they would have lost some Kerry States as well(NH and maybe WI).

Exactly; KY barely went for Clinton in 1996. And even WV was a red state by 2004, and at best a Democrat could keep the margin of loss narrow-ish.

MO, AR and LA might have been plausible flips, but Democrats would only have outside shots at them, and the states would still probably be Lean or Likely Republican.
 
(I know the OP didn't say LA was an Appalachian state, but it did say that AR and MO were. I'd personally say TN and VA are more Appalachian than MO or AR.)

I mean Missouri almost flipped to Obama in 2008.

[Samof94]

KY nope it was gone by then


AR could have won by Hillary and MO and WV could have won by Gephardt but they would have lost some Kerry States as well(NH and maybe WI).

Exactly; KY barely went for Clinton in 1996. And even WV was a red state by 2004, and at best a Democrat could keep the margin of loss narrow-ish.

MO, AR and LA might have been plausible flips, but Democrats would only have outside shots at them, and the states would still probably be Lean or Likely Republican.
 
(I know the OP didn't say LA was an Appalachian state, but it did say that AR and MO were. I'd personally say TN and VA are more Appalachian than MO or AR.)

I mean Missouri almost flipped to Obama in 2008.

Fair point. Gephardt would definitely deliver the state to the Democrats, though I think with just about any other realistic nominee, it'd stay in the GOP's column.

(Also why'd you bump a two year old thread? Lmao)

(I did it as Missouri almost flipped, which shows how different things were back then)