Could any Democrats have won back WV, KY, MO, AR, etc. in 2004?

[Del Tachi]

Were there any national Democrats in 2003/04 who could have won Appalachia back for the Democrats as a presidential candidate?

I'm thinking that Don Siegelman could have (along with AL) had he been reelected in 2002.

[Pericles]

Polls showed Hillary winning those states in 2008. In 2004 she'd probably have been able to win Arkansas, if she ran a good campaign and won the election she could probably have won most of them. The pre-Obama admin Hillary had a significantly different coalition and her showing in 2016, in those special circumstances, shouldn't be taken to mean she would always have been a bad fit for those states no matter when she was the nominee (however it could be taken to mean she's a bad candidate overall and so while she may do better in those states it's possible she still loses them and the presidency, with the probable exception of Arkansas.)

[OSR stands with Israel]

KY nope it was gone by then


AR could have won by Hillary and MO and WV could have won by Gephardt but they would have lost some Kerry States as well(NH and maybe WI).

[Pericles]

In 2008 the RCP average for McCain vs Clinton in KY was McCain +1.7%. AR was Clinton +13.4%. Only one poll was taken in WV which was Clinton +5%, given Gore only lost it narrowly and it had previously been a blue state it may well have been winnable. Missouri polls seemed pretty close, probably a Bush win given 2004 was less pro-Dem than 2008.

[OSR stands with Israel]

In 2008 the RCP average for McCain vs Clinton in KY was McCain +1.7%. AR was Clinton +13.4%. Only one poll was taken in WV which was Clinton +5%, given Gore only lost it narrowly and it had previously been a blue state it may well have been winnable. Missouri polls seemed pretty close, probably a Bush win given 2004 was less pro-Dem than 2008.

Well 2004 was far different of an environment than 2008 was and Bush was a far better fit for those states than McCain. Those numbers actually show it, if KY was McCain 1.7 vs Hillary in 08 , Bush in 04 wins it easily (remember even Bill in 1996 barely won KY) , MO and WV  would be a narrow Bush victory(around 3-5 points) .AR I agree Hillary wins it but even that just barely(1-2 points). 

[lfromnj]

Bob Graham?

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Most Democrats from the region probably could have, these states were all still solidly Democratic at the state level back then.


*With the exception of Missouri, which I believe would have stayed a bellwether and backed Bush, who probably still would have narrowly won the election due to 9/11.

[darklordoftech]

Can we conclude that Democratic primary voters ensured that a candidate who could win these states couldn't get nominated?

[Suburbia]

Clark, Gephardt, Edwards

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Bob Graham?

Bob Graham is moderate on lots of things, but energy policy definitely isn't one of them. WV and KY would run away from Graham if he were on the ballot

[Suburbia]

MO? Maybe.

WV, KY, AR?

No.

[Samof94]

In 2008 the RCP average for McCain vs Clinton in KY was McCain +1.7%. AR was Clinton +13.4%. Only one poll was taken in WV which was Clinton +5%, given Gore only lost it narrowly and it had previously been a blue state it may well have been winnable. Missouri polls seemed pretty close, probably a Bush win given 2004 was less pro-Dem than 2008.

Well 2004 was far different of an environment than 2008 was and Bush was a far better fit for those states than McCain. Those numbers actually show it, if KY was McCain 1.7 vs Hillary in 08 , Bush in 04 wins it easily (remember even Bill in 1996 barely won KY) , MO and WV  would be a narrow Bush victory(around 3-5 points) .AR I agree Hillary wins it but even that just barely(1-2 points).  

I never saw the 2004 South as competitive no matter who ran. This isn’t Clinton’s era nor is it the 2020’s

[GregTheGreat657]

Polls showed Hillary winning those states in 2008. In 2004 she'd probably have been able to win Arkansas, if she ran a good campaign and won the election she could probably have won most of them. The pre-Obama admin Hillary had a significantly different coalition and her showing in 2016, in those special circumstances, shouldn't be taken to mean she would always have been a bad fit for those states no matter when she was the nominee (however it could be taken to mean she's a bad candidate overall and so while she may do better in those states it's possible she still loses them and the presidency, with the probable exception of Arkansas.)

I am assuming you mean that the pre-Obama admin Hillary coalition was more working class and less educated. A lot of the original Hillary '08 coalition voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020.

[Schiff for Senate]

KY nope it was gone by then


AR could have won by Hillary and MO and WV could have won by Gephardt but they would have lost some Kerry States as well(NH and maybe WI).

Exactly; KY barely went for Clinton in 1996. And even WV was a red state by 2004, and at best a Democrat could keep the margin of loss narrow-ish.

MO, AR and LA might have been plausible flips, but Democrats would only have outside shots at them, and the states would still probably be Lean or Likely Republican.

(I know the OP didn't say LA was an Appalachian state, but it did say that AR and MO were. I'd personally say TN and VA are more Appalachian than MO or AR.)

[Samof94]

KY nope it was gone by then


AR could have won by Hillary and MO and WV could have won by Gephardt but they would have lost some Kerry States as well(NH and maybe WI).

Exactly; KY barely went for Clinton in 1996. And even WV was a red state by 2004, and at best a Democrat could keep the margin of loss narrow-ish.

MO, AR and LA might have been plausible flips, but Democrats would only have outside shots at them, and the states would still probably be Lean or Likely Republican.
 
(I know the OP didn't say LA was an Appalachian state, but it did say that AR and MO were. I'd personally say TN and VA are more Appalachian than MO or AR.)

I mean Missouri almost flipped to Obama in 2008.

[Schiff for Senate]

KY nope it was gone by then


AR could have won by Hillary and MO and WV could have won by Gephardt but they would have lost some Kerry States as well(NH and maybe WI).

Exactly; KY barely went for Clinton in 1996. And even WV was a red state by 2004, and at best a Democrat could keep the margin of loss narrow-ish.

MO, AR and LA might have been plausible flips, but Democrats would only have outside shots at them, and the states would still probably be Lean or Likely Republican.
 
(I know the OP didn't say LA was an Appalachian state, but it did say that AR and MO were. I'd personally say TN and VA are more Appalachian than MO or AR.)

I mean Missouri almost flipped to Obama in 2008.

Fair point. Gephardt would definitely deliver the state to the Democrats, though I think with just about any other realistic nominee, it'd stay in the GOP's column.

(Also why'd you bump a two year old thread? Lmao)

[Samof94]

KY nope it was gone by then


AR could have won by Hillary and MO and WV could have won by Gephardt but they would have lost some Kerry States as well(NH and maybe WI).

Exactly; KY barely went for Clinton in 1996. And even WV was a red state by 2004, and at best a Democrat could keep the margin of loss narrow-ish.

MO, AR and LA might have been plausible flips, but Democrats would only have outside shots at them, and the states would still probably be Lean or Likely Republican.
 
(I know the OP didn't say LA was an Appalachian state, but it did say that AR and MO were. I'd personally say TN and VA are more Appalachian than MO or AR.)

I mean Missouri almost flipped to Obama in 2008.

Fair point. Gephardt would definitely deliver the state to the Democrats, though I think with just about any other realistic nominee, it'd stay in the GOP's column.

(Also why'd you bump a two year old thread? Lmao)

(I did it as Missouri almost flipped, which shows how different things were back then)