UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[TheTide]

Gary Lineker given the chop apparently, at least for the time being.

[TheTide]

Lineker may be the British equivalent of #resistance liberals in the US, and his politics are superficial & sophomoric…

But the BBC have behaved shamefully here; the corporation that used the world service to broadcast messages of defiance against the Nazis, that’s been banned in Russia, China, Uzbekistan, Zimbabwe etc is cowering in the face of the bruised egos of the Tory government. It’s pathetic, disgraceful and heads need to roll starting with Sharpe & Bruce.

Jeff Stelling of Sky Sports is the best football television presenter of modern times. Lineker is supremely overrated in this respect - IMO former professionals don't tend to make the best pundits, presenters or commentators on their respective sports (the late, great Richie Benaud is a notable exception).

The hypocrisy of many on the right on this is rather stark, however.

[TheTide]

The Greens at 13% is BS, but it would be interesting to see how it would break down in a general election and how it would compare to UKIP's similar showing in 2015. Presumably inner city student heavy seats would be to the Greens as various coastal seats were to UKIP.

[TheTide]

Johnson has spent much of this initial round of questioning talking over Sir Bernard Jenkins, one of the Committee's Conservative members, and trying to justify the leaving party where he was photographed

He's getting incredibly testy, and he's been here barely an hour. He's sniping at the questioning MPs, and talked over Harman, who's mostly just trying to keep things civil, at least 4 or 5 times.

Hats off to whichever photographer got this shot, which sums up the session so far:

Edit: Johnson has lost his cool and raised his voice, to drop the following - “People who say that we were partying in lockdown simply do not know what they are talking about”.

The guy sitting behind Johnson to the left (from the viewer's POV) is making some interesting facial expressions.

[TheTide]

I find it odd that this is the same guy who argued against the government in the prorogation case.

He came to my mind as I was watching but I didn't think it was him initially because of this.

Most people here probably don't know much about Coronation Street, but, as was pointed out during the prorogation case, he rather resembles Norris Cole.

[TheTide]

If in the next election the Tories get smashed as badly as they did in 1997, how many current ministers would lose?

Raab would lose to the Lib Dems and Hunt might; Ben Wallace's seat is disappearing so unless Nigel Evans retires he's out; Mordaunt, Shapps and David TC Davies are all potentially vulnerable to Labour if it's a big defeat; Jack was on course to lose to the SNP until Sturgeon resigns but who knows now?

There are a few others who might lose if the gap is more like 20 points than 15, but by and large the members of the Cabinet represent very safely Tory shire seats rather than more urban areas.

Virtually no one would be guaranteed to keep their seat if the lead is 20% or more.

[TheTide]

Surprised it only took a very slight change in the polls for people to suddenly jump into maybe the Tories will win mode. I'm sure this is what they've been waiting for

There was an infamous poll during the 1997 campaign showing Labour ahead by only 5%. This might have contributed to Portillo's comments mentioned earlier in the thread.

[TheTide]

Nigel Lawson, Chancellor for most of the Thatcher era, has passed away at the age of 91.

[TheTide]

Woah

Edit: Apparently they're searching Murrell & Sturgeon's house - they've set up a gazebo as a control centre on Sturgeon's front lawn.



There's also a major police presence at SNP HQ this morning. Police Scotland have confirmed they are conducting simultaneous searches in the inquiry (Operation Branchform) this morning. Over a dozen officers have been filmed entering the premises. 

Blimey, it looks like a murder scene.

[TheTide]

Cameron is probably the most ignored of the living former Prime Ministers. Major and Blair get a fair bit of attention whenever they make a public statement, Brown and May are treated as wise elder statespeople and Johnson is Johnson.

[TheTide]

Reshuffle:

• Alex Chalk as Justice Secretary
• Oliver Dowden as Deputy PM
• Chloe Smith as interim Science and Technology Secretary (while Michelle Donelan is on maternity)

Overall it's +1 (Dowden) for the Johnson-Truss wing, though Donelan is also on the right and Smith on the left so it's evens really.
Besides it's meaningless as it feels like Braverman has been the de facto deputy all along.

Fwiw (nothing) I think Raab has a point about the bar for bullying being too low. All but two of the complaints against him were dismissed and the remaining two aren't horrifyingly bad.

Are tory factions as vibes based as Labour, because this seems an odd way to describe Truss's Work and Pensions secretary?

British conservatism is entirely vibes based.

Cameron/Osborne were the ones who implemented a much more consistently 'Thatcherite' economic agenda and they were the 'moderates', yes.

[TheTide]

Dowden is far more associated with Cameron than Johnson/Truss. He was Cameron’s spad - and he backed May in 2016. He also resigned from Johnson’s government very pointedly after Wakefield/Tiverton and Truss didn’t reappoint him. I struggle to see even a vibes argument for him being seen aligned with Johnson/Truss.

Osborne in particular was the main reason why we voted for Brexit in the first place.

Osborne’s probably the worst chancellor we’ve had since the war, but I don’t think he can be blamed for Brexit. For one thing he and Cameron won an election the year before, austerity wasn’t discredited in the same way in 2016 that it is now.

Cameron and Osborne taking a high profile in the campaign (which Wilson didn't in 1975) arguably swung the result, given that it was a 4% majority. By the start of 2016, the ratings of the government and its leadership had declined significantly. If someone like Alan Johnson had been the most high profile person on the Remain side, then the Leave vote amongst Labour voters probably wouldn't have been as high as 30-40% and may have made the difference. Of course, Corbyn may be blamed here too.

[TheTide]

Dowden is far more associated with Cameron than Johnson/Truss. He was Cameron’s spad - and he backed May in 2016. He also resigned from Johnson’s government very pointedly after Wakefield/Tiverton and Truss didn’t reappoint him. I struggle to see even a vibes argument for him being seen aligned with Johnson/Truss.

Osborne in particular was the main reason why we voted for Brexit in the first place.

Osborne’s probably the worst chancellor we’ve had since the war, but I don’t think he can be blamed for Brexit. For one thing he and Cameron won an election the year before, austerity wasn’t discredited in the same way in 2016 that it is now.

Cameron and Osborne taking a high profile in the campaign (which Wilson didn't in 1975) arguably swung the result, given that it was a 4% majority. By the start of 2016, the ratings of the government and its leadership had declined significantly. If someone like Alan Johnson had been the most high profile person on the Remain side, then the Leave vote amongst Labour voters probably wouldn't have been as high as 30-40% and may have made the difference. Of course, Corbyn may be blamed here too.

As someone who campaigned in that referendum I would strongly argue against that. Osborne’s punishment budget was bad, but the idea that normal people voted for Brexit because of it is political bubble idea imo - I doubt most people had any idea about it. I also don’t think there’s any evidence Cameron was any more toxic than Farage was, and I doubt he was much less popular than Johnson (if at all by the end of the campaign). I seriously doubt that antipathy to Cameron/Osborne moved more than a handful of votes.

Also I love Alan Johnson, but he was not the man to take the fight to Johnson/Gove/Farage on the leave side - a better/higher profile Labour campaign might have swung the result, but again I don’t see how Cameron can be blamed for that - he wanted to give Corbyn more prominence but Corbyn refused to work with him. (And I’m not even saying that was wrong after Better together in 2014 - just that its not fair to say Cameron deliberately dominated the remain side).

I wasn't even thinking of the punishment budget. I doubt specific events or policies swing many referendums or elections anyway. What it may have done is contributed to a certain narrative, and narratives usually decide referendums and general elections. Ed Miliband didn't lead Labour to defeat in 2015 because of the way he ate a bacon sandwich, but it contributed to a certain narrative (about him being a weirdo and not being up to the job of Prime Minister etc) that was probably a key factor in the defeat,

[TheTide]

My main reaction to a quick look at today's front pages is a strong awakening of my normally latent republicanism.

You are probably not the only one.

[TheTide]

How many are going to do it anyway? Contrary to what some parts of the media may have you believe, most Brits aren't staunch royalists. Most firmly support having a constitutional monarchy, but that's not the same thing.   

[TheTide]

The only person I can think of who is fit for the UK presidency is David Beckham.

Providing the presidency was a largely ceremonial role then it could be filled with none political and nationally respected figures, like if David Attenborough was younger he'd be ideal.

If it wasn't a largely ceremonial role then someone like Piers Morgan could emerge as a Trump-like figure under certain circumstances.

[TheTide]

It's rather macabre but the really fascinating discussion that we should be having about royal power is just what was actually being planned or discussed around Mr Blobby and his election threats in July '22.

It has been unofficially confirmed* that a Dismissal was absolutely on the cards if Mr Blobby had dug in, which is why the terminally ill Brenda had to have her mobile ICU moved to Buck House for a few days. What we don't know is how close we were to seeing that happen: was it on the table as an absolute last resort, or was the plan to get on with it if he refused to heel?

_{*By that most reliable of sources on the Palace: i.e. Private Eye.}

Oh yes of course I remember the bit in the Eye about how they had their own lawyers at the ready because they specifically didn't trust No.10 after the prorogation mess and there were suggestions being made that a request for dissolution would have been turned down- lol upon googling it appears the plan was revealed in a book- she would have been 'unable to take his call'.

Ofc the funny thing is how his the cult of Blobby would have reacted to him being sacked; a remainer plot ofc would have been the likely line.

He'd have a made a speech saying:

"Well may we say God Save the Queen. Because nothing will save the...err...Queen."

[TheTide]

But the Stormont government is the Westminster government...

This makes me wonder how Labour would handle this...presuming Starmer wins in 2024.

For one, get rid of the incompetent Heaton-Harris who seems to have learnt of the NI situation off a post-it note.
Starmer's Labour could stop blocking the Assembly election rerun, which should have happened 6 months ago. The DUP being punished at the ballot for obstructionism would be a very satisfying, if unlikely solution.

If that doesn't work, at least apply political pressure on the minority party through different funding avenue that would be opened only if Stormont formed again.

I've heard that Heaton-Harris is a nice guy. Which may be one of the problems here.

[TheTide]

Andrew Bridgen has joined the Reclaim Party. First sitting MP since Douglas Carswell to be in a party to the right of the Tories (not counting the DUP etc).

[TheTide]

It is an area that has changed a lot in recent decades (it is now a comfortable semi-rural constituency with a few working class bits poking through as odd memorials to a different time), but if recent electoral movement holds up and if the insane potato man does run for his new crank party, then it would certainly be worth keeping an eye on.

A description that could apply to quite a few constituencies these days.

What constituencies have gone in the other direction (more working-class with areas of comfort)? I'm thinking quite a few in the Merseyside area.

[TheTide]

Our PM went to watch "his" club Southampton FC yesterday, to say that he looked like a fish out of water is maybe understating it. Not to mention that they lost and were formally relegated.

Random but related fact: their former chairman Rupert Lowe was elected as an MEP for the Brexit Party in the farcical elections of 2019.

[TheTide]

Thatcher: her dislike of football and it's fans is well known but she was rather incredibly made Honorary Vice President of Blackburn Rovers by owner Jack Walker in the 90s.

Of course there were two major domestic football disasters (Bradford and Hillsborough) during her stint and her responses to both were perhaps not entirely adequate.

[TheTide]

Just for anyone wondering the allegiances of the other recent prime ministers:

Wilson: Huddersfield Town (his hometown club)

Callaghan: not a big football fan, but his native club Portsmouth once asked him for digout when they were on hard times

Thatcher: her dislike of football and it's fans is well known but she was rather incredibly made Honorary Vice President of Blackburn Rovers by owner Jack Walker in the 90s.

Major: huge Chelsea fan, frequently seen at Stamford Bridge

Blair: famously a Newcastle fan, it was once claimed a young Tony sat in the Gallowgate end and saw Jackie Milburn play, something that was impossible as the Gallowgate didn't have seats until many years after Wor Jackie left. Campbell later admitted he made it up

Brown: a Raith Rovers fan, he handed programmes at Starks Park as a child.

Cameron: infamously said he was a West Ham fan when he previously had claimed to be a Villa fan. His support for the other team in claret and blue comes from his uncle Sir William Dudgale being the chairman in their early 80s glory days.

May: Not a big football fan but reportedly has a soft spot for AFC Wimbledon (and the original club) due to her time as a councillor in Merton.

Johnson: typically Boris claimed to be a fan of all the London clubs.

Truss: a Norwich fan - although a Leeds native, she supports the team of her constituency.

Brown, in the manner of most people like him, was a fanatic fan and aced a quiz on raith rovers when he appeared on Soccer AM- his close aide Damian Mcbride recalled a press story about him being seen around the club on transfer deadline day.

Would pay good money to see him run a club.

Soccer AM. That's quite a nostalgic thing for me. I think it might actually still be going, even though the effective end of it was when Tim Lovejoy left with several of the big personality 'side characters', which must have been about fifteen years ago. It was a part of my routine on Saturday mornings in the early to mid 2000s.

[TheTide]

Harry and Meghan have been involved in a car crash..



...not serious it seems, or involving any major collisions. Occurred after an awards ceremony last night. Imagine the conspiracy theories if it had been a fatal one.

[TheTide]

It looks as though they have found (or are about to) Madeleine McCann, given the current headline on the BBC News website, which will undoubtedly overshadow the Braverman nonsense.