UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[TheTide]

If/when we get some form of PR, it would be interesting to see who is in what party.

[TheTide]

Bradshaw in a minority of 11 with McDonnell and Sultana is quite funny.

[TheTide]

Being (half) serious, he might actually resign imminently. He's clearly not enjoying himself (beyond the fake smiles) and at least he would be able to claim that he went immediately after effing up, whereas Johnson and Truss clung on for months/weeks. He also wouldn't go down as the person who led the government to defeat. Gove should have that honour given that he's been there since the beginning.

[TheTide]

 

https://twitter.com/PGMcNamara/status/1616513955945451531?s=20&t=uy9UbFx2jy-...

[TheTide]

This is probably beating a dead horse, but observe Liz Truss's face in this photo and consider the matter at hand. I wouldn't quite call it a smile, but it certainly isn't solemn either.

https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1618312522603573248?s=20&t=Q24ITKFB_bWZj...

[TheTide]

"I know I will be able to count on your support from the backbenches"

Zahawi is a noted supporter of Boris Johnson, so that may be wishful thinking.

[TheTide]

Have to wonder who gets pressganged into the role of party chairman now, with only 12 weeks until the local elections. It’s the sort of poisoned chalice no member of the cabinet will want. Maybe there’s some over-eager junior minister who’ll take it?

In all probability, it's like asking who will be the Brian MaWhinney of the 2020s.

[TheTide]

At the end of the day, the "this is 1992 all over again" cope is based on one actual fact and one only - that Starmer's personal ratings are a lot less impressive than Blair's pre-1997.

But arguably, that just shows how Mr Tony was an unrepeatable one-off.

SKS is also clearly doing better than Kinnock was in the *actual* pre-1992 period, and in *certain* respects the Tories are currently doing worse than before the 1997 GE never mind 1992.

The other point to make is that there has already been a 1992 style election during the course of this government, and it was 2015.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/_sn_n/status/1620483907341914112?s=20&t=Bhw52592ni-2DHoR...

[TheTide]

John Rent-a-quote

[TheTide]

Frank Field was back in the Lords today. He announced in 2021 that he was in a hospice so this is quite nice to see, although he's still obviously unwell.

https://twitter.com/richard_kaputt/status/1621502284193730561?s=20&t=Gt6Ey0J...

[TheTide]

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/ks0pzlbs8y/Internal_Favourability_230202.pdf

Latest favourability ratings of various politicians and parties. No one is popular, as usual, and several are outright toxic.

[TheTide]

Reports Truss wants to do a Heath and become Leader of the Opposition.

On an aside its funny how in the recent discussions of post Prime Ministerial life Heath and his errrr financial dealings are never mentioned are they?

She wouldn't be doing a Heath, she'd be doing a Hague.

[TheTide]

Truss won 50 votes in the first round of the first leadership election of 2022. I wonder if she might not have won if she had won one less vote (there is quite a psychological difference between 49 and 50) then she would have been written off and Mourdaunt (who came behind Truss by a few votes in the last MPs' round as it was) would have become Prime Minister. There wouldn't have been the KamaKwasi budget and the Tories would be in a better position. As it is, we are here, and the Tories look doomed.

[TheTide]

My former MP (when he could be bothered) convicted of expenses fraud: Guardian story

Oliver Coppard would have been quite a different MP wouldn't he? Quite possibly he'd be a current frontbencher.

[TheTide]

Interesting thread this.

https://twitter.com/LeeDavidEvansUK/status/1623413809049227266?s=20&t=O4Yd7s...

[TheTide]

Mr O'Mara gets four years.

[TheTide]

Scotland has been doing its own thing in general elections for at least half a century. Even if you put aside the SNP, the swing between Labour and the Tories has often been vastly different to that in the rest of GB.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/MelnykAndrij/status/1623652302404870153?s=20&t=poNLRj9pz...

Sorry, but...

[TheTide]

It must be said she was one of the most successful and skilled politicians we’ve seen over the past 20 years; she was aided ofc by outside factors but it’s really only been in the last 12 months when the wheels have came off and her operation has looked shabby.

I'd say Salmond (a now-disgraced figure o/c) was more skilled at his height, but yes there isn't anyone presently in the SNP who can match her. The Central Belt suddenly looks more vulnerable.

[TheTide]

The argument that Scottish Labour lost because it was insufficiently leftist is undermined by the fact that the SNP isn't either. Scottish Labour lost in 2011 because it was hideously, hilariously incompetent, it lost in 2015 because it was incompetent and unpopular and it's still losing because it's still not viewed as competent, even when the point of comparison is the SNP.

Scottish Labour has long lacked a stand-out communicator from any of its factions. The Scottish Tories reached what was probably close to their ceiling under Davidson due to her being a good communicator. Since her they seem to have also been saddled with nonentities and disasters in the leadership.

[TheTide]

This shows how strong Sturgeon's brand is/was. I'm struggling to picture a majority of the electorate describing Angus Robertson as 'charismatic'.

https://twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1626660250127572997?s=20

[TheTide]

And Sunak's performance on the Better PM question is similar to that of BoJo from the breaking of Partygate (late 2021) onwards. Quite appalling for a 'safe pair of hands' who is only four months into the job.

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1628356717456281600?s=20

[TheTide]

Dominic Cummings making a good point!

https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1628767383681748997?s=20

[TheTide]

Aside from the obvious, there was something distinctly off about that post I couldn't quite put my finger on, but that's it: just bewildering levels of Australian Right energy.

I have suspected for a while that they would try a John Howard tactic regarding this particular issue. I thought, however, that it would occur closer to the election.