UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

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Jack Doyle has resigned as director of communications.

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Another resignation - Elena Narozanski of the Policy Unit. That makes it five in about eighteen hours.

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Looks like Dishy Rishi is implicated in this one, too. Its not been a great few days for him.

I see Sunaks fate as becoming one of those "prime ministers we never had" as opposed to prime minister.

Vastly less interesting than Portillo, Heseltine, Butler, Benn, Bevan, Bevin, Mosley, Powell, Corbyn, Clarke, Healey...

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https://www.amazon.co.uk/Prime-Ministers-We-Never-Had/dp/1838952411

No, I'm not Steve Richards.

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DICK IS OUT

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https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1491847834987020294?s=20&t=b5htAs...

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Labour went from 20% to losing their deposit in Esher and Walton in 2019, and still the usual suspects moaned on social media because the Tory majority was lower (by about 100 votes) than Labour's raw vote.

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Her Majesty has tested positive for Covid. Charlie Boy and Camilla both tested positive some days ago. Always a concern at her age.

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What the YouGov shows is that the two major parties are more popular than all of their senior politicians (who are known enough to be judged). This is actually somewhat unusual.

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The idea that either of them can continue in office is absurd. Both wrapped in scandal and incompetence and the entire country knows it. Then again the 1922 operation isn't as sharp as it should be.

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To no great surprise, it looks like Ukraine is going to be used as an excuse to not move against Johnson now.

There were three changes of Prime Minister across two World Wars. Laughable.

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More in the papers about how Sunak agonised about quitting.

He really is the the David Miliband on the Conservative Party.

He'd have nothing to lose by quitting (and publicly 'advising' that Boris Johnson does the same thing) and perhaps a bit to gain. But having a job title such as Chancellor of the Exchequer is hard to let go voluntarily.

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Whatever happens, Johnson is probably off the hook (on this particular issue).

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Sir Keir Starmer has more integrity in his pinkie finger than Boris Johnson and the entire Tory Party has in their whole bodies.

Really? All 100,000 of them?

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My hunch (though that's all it is) is that people are being more vocal about having sent anti-Johnson letters than they were with May. But yes, if the PM gets through to the summer recess without facing a confidence vote he has probably done well.

There was more of an incentive on 'principle' (i.e. Brexit) to declare against May, but May also didn't generate as many personal enemies as Johnson. On the whole it's probably of a similar proportion.

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Former Attorney General Jeremy Wright has joined calls for Johnson to resign with immediate effect.

Total number of MPs calling for Johnson’s resignation now stands at 25, per Sky News’ Tom Larkin, who’s doing a stellar job keeping on top of the letters.

Full statement here: https://mobile.twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1531249491239751681

Wright was actually talked of as a future leader during the May premiership. He was possibly boring, personality and charisma free enough to have emerged as a John Major figure in another universe.

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A confidence vote could be imminent, as in hours rather than days or weeks. My basis for this is somewhat paradoxical - the usual drama mongers on social media are being a bit more low key about it. In more 'normal' times they drum things up.

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https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1533136601794093057?s=20&t=TwGfkY...

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Big news is that letters can be submitted by Whatsapp- there were hilarious tales of MPs saying they couldn't submit letters as they were too afraid they'd get caught dropping it off. Of course they were lying as you can simply email it or put it in the post...

It would ofc be Labour's dream for him to win a narrow confidence vote & then watch as the Tories have to keep him until the election; especially if the privileges committee find that he has lied. The Conservatives have not handled this very well. 

A narrow win with further scandals, polling declines and by-election losses would probably only delay his exit by a few months. The 1922 Committee can get rid of the one-year rule at any time.

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FWIW, the betting markets (not that they know stuff that we don't) would rank the top favorites in order right now as:

1 (tie). Tugendhat 4/1
1 (tie). Hunt 4/1
3. Liz Truss 7/1
4. Rishi Sunak 15/2
5. Ben Wallace 8/1
6. Penny Mordaunt 9/1

Clealry tangential, but only noting it since we know nothing 'til Wed. anyway. Also, interesting that the top 3 voted Remain! I've gotta say, given how BoJo has done his utmost to take out any potential Cabinet rivals, I really didn't anticipate the parliamentary rank-&-file invoking something of a nuclear option when everybody in their government is a f**k-up: turning to a backbencher (& I mean a real backbencher, not BoJo19) who doesn't seem to have any particular skeletons in the closet. To that extent, Tugenhadt's rise is very interesting. He comes off as much more competent than any of the others, giving off the same "sensible" vibe in Select Committee sessions as Starmer does in general, but just with a blue rosette. Not to mention, his being a veteran, which the British public would love, also lends credibility to his being pretty hawkish on foreign policy. If this is really happening & he can win the leadership, I think Keir should be ready for the ride of his life.

My own comments on each of them:

Tugendhat - A light(er)weight version of Rory Stewart. I can see him being the candidate of the FBPErs but not many actual Tory MPs or members.

Hunt - Liked by the media, probably good electorally for the 'Blue Wall'. The 'Red Wall' is another matter. Kind of a George Osborne type. Can't see him getting to the membership. In fact he's more likely to be another Andrea Leadsom - she made it to the final two in 2016 and then stood again in 2019 and got a comical number of MPs' votes.

Truss - She apparently made some interesting comments about the Monarchy when she was a Lib Dem. Not that this is a topical matter at all........ Aside from that she is a hardcore economic Thatcherite who probably only supported Remain because of careerist reasons. Amongst Brexiteers she's probably now significantly more popular than the two main Tories in the Leave campaign (Johnson and Gove).

Sunak - Surely he's done for. Hard to know what his pitch would be. Circumstances of the past two years have led to him being the most interventionist Chancellor in decades. If he stuck to this in a leadership election he would have issues getting anywhere, and if he went in a Thatcherite direction it would seem insincere (although like Truss that's probably where his sympathies lie). And that's without getting into the various scandals.

Wallace - I'd actually make him the favourite. One of the core arguments (a stupid one) from Johnson's supporters over the past few months is that it a PM shouldn't be changed during a time of War. He is both Defence Secretary and a Johnson loyalist without being obvious about it or caught up in scandals. Would get support from all wings of the party if he played it right.

Mourdaunt - I don't much about her other than she was previously hyped up when May was in trouble. Fairly young, fairly good-looking (apparently? I don't know much about female beauty). Pragmatic Brexiteer (was pro-May deal).


There are some others who I'd rank as having a better chance than a few of those above.

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If we look back at Tory leadership changes in recent history, the party tends to go for the candidate with a persona that’s broadly contra to that of his/her predecessor:

Thatcher-Major: Here you went from Queen Margaret I to Major’s low key “honest John” persona.
Duncan Smith-Howard: Dull right-winger with no ministerial experience to veteran minister and excellent parliamentary performer (different story with the electorate as a whole of course).
Howard-Cameron: Aging, veteran right-winger to a young(ish) one-term MP setting out his stall as the ‘change’ candidate.
Cameron-May: The insouciant, Etonian, ‘essay crisis’ PM to the hard-working, conscientious, no-frills Vicar’s daughter.
May: From the PM with no personality to the PM with a surfeit of personality (and of course from ex-Remainer to one of the leading figures in Vote Leave).

Ultimately you get rid of a leader because they’re not the right fit for what the electorate seems to be looking for. Three years ago the party needed a candidate with a discernible personality (something in short supply in that particular leadership contest), who could mend bridges with Leave voters and put up a credible performance on the campaign trail (although Johnson has in fact been a surprisingly weak campaigner as PM in my opinion). Now the party needs a sober goody-goody to distance itself from the farrago of s*** that has hit the fan in the last six months, so I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the dull dongs like Tugendhat, Hunt or Wallace gets it. The latter in particular  could be one to watch given the ongoing situation in Ukraine and the fact that, unlike the other two, he doesn’t seem particularly unpalatable to the right. On the other hand he’s more of a non-entity so that’ll be a challenge for him.

What are Johnson's, let's say, three defining characteristics? Liar might just be one, he appears to lack any clear ideological leanings (he ranges from social liberalism to right-wing populism socially and free marketism to interventionism economically) and he still has what could be called charisma (at least compared to most other politicians). So, someone who is reasonably honest, has some clear ideological leanings and is uncharismatic.

This leads me to Javid, who doesn't seem to get talked about much. Javid hasn't been caught up in much dishonesty or scandal (again, this is relative), he seems to be a genuine Ayn Rand free market type with some kind of social libertarian streak and he speaks like a robot. He also comes from a much more humble background.

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Brady's speaking style is akin to that of Ken Clarke. Not the most important matter today but hey.

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Johnson says that the media's obsession with Partygate will end if he wins the ballot. Regardless of your views on him and Partygate, that seems, what's the technical term, bullsh**t.

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I think there’s a good chance that he loses ‘by accident’ a la Heath in 1975.

The second ballot in that is mostly forgotten, but it had some interesting candidates and Thatcher didn't win in a walkover.

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Jeremy Hunt has declared against Johnson.