Marquette - WI Sen - Barnes +7

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1559954005438218240?t=c8Wn13dEEVxB8O3GFuJ3r...

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Barnes+7 and Evers+2 in the same poll is not a combination I would have expected.

The weird thing is the independent who's taking 7% in the gov race seems relatively conservative.. (cites "dishonest media" and she's pro life).

[AncestralDemocrat.]

It’s a cliché, but even the vote share/MoE qualification isn’t going to explain away/excuse the polling misses we’re going to see this year. It’s another cliché, but every cycle keeps getting even worse for the industry.

At this point, it’s just entertainment and meme material.

No, the entertaining part is seeing people declare that the polls are wildly off this year...when it's still almost three months until Election Day.

Maybe they will be off by that much, and if so then yes, it will be a big miss.  But maybe they won't.  Soon enough we will know.  Simply assuming the result will follow your preconceptions is just posturing.

I mean it's Wisconsin.. people have a right to be skeptical.

Remember the Biden+18 fiasco.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

It’s a cliché, but even the vote share/MoE qualification isn’t going to explain away/excuse the polling misses we’re going to see this year. It’s another cliché, but every cycle keeps getting even worse for the industry.

At this point, it’s just entertainment and meme material.

No, the entertaining part is seeing people declare that the polls are wildly off this year...when it's still almost three months until Election Day.

Maybe they will be off by that much, and if so then yes, it will be a big miss.  But maybe they won't.  Soon enough we will know.  Simply assuming the result will follow your preconceptions is just posturing.

I mean it's Wisconsin.. people have a right to he skeptical.

Remember the Biden+18 fiasco.

That was one poll, IIRC.

Not really.. Reuters and NY Times/Siena had Biden up by double digits in the state as well..

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Barnes+7 and Evers+2 in the same poll is not a combination I would have expected.

The weird thing is the independent who's taking 7% in the gov race seems relatively conservative.. (cites "dishonest media" and she's pro life).

- Ideology matters hardly at all for 3rd party voters, voting 3rd party is a protest vote. See Pot parties in Minnesota.

- I would be very surprised if she ended up with 7% of the vote, 3rd party candidates almost always poll better than they actually do.

Sure the pot party demographic are by enlarge disaffected dem leaning voters..


Independents typically don't poll 7% obviously.. so she's either very well known or there's significant heave/disillusionment against Evers.