Marquette - WI Sen - Barnes +7

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1559954005438218240?t=c8Wn13dEEVxB8O3GFuJ3r...

[soundchaser]

WHOAH

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news😊😊😊, we are in business

[GeorgiaModerate]

Barnes+7 and Evers+2 in the same poll is not a combination I would have expected.

[Minnesota Mike]

Just as important as the margin is the trend.

[wbrocks67]

Barnes+7 and Evers+2 in the same poll is not a combination I would have expected.

Doesn't appear there's a 3rd party in the Senate race, or if there is one, not one of note. For some reason, the Indy in the GOV race is taking 7% of the vote, so that likely is contributing to most of that split.

[wbrocks67]

All I know is, thank god we're getting a poll that actually has a majority decided.

This is much better than the constant 10-12% undecided we keep getting from PA polls.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1559954180130971648

[wbrocks67]

Enthusiasm gap = gone

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1559955815070670848

[ajc0918]

Republicans in disarray

[Hindsight was 2020]

I’m not falling for this fools gold again

[Xing]

God damn it, Marquette! Stop teasing me with hopium!

[SnowLabrador]

I’m not falling for this fools gold again

This.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Barnes+7 and Evers+2 in the same poll is not a combination I would have expected.

The weird thing is the independent who's taking 7% in the gov race seems relatively conservative.. (cites "dishonest media" and she's pro life).

[MT Treasurer]

It’s a cliché, but even the vote share/MoE qualification isn’t going to explain away/excuse the polling misses we’re going to see this year. It’s another cliché, but every cycle somehow keeps getting even worse for the industry.

At this point, it’s just entertainment and meme material.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I’m not falling for this fools gold again

This.

You will see Sen elect Barnes no Kleefisch and Sen elect Fetterman

[xavier110]

I’m not falling for this fools gold again

Yeah I scanned 2014 polling where Sens Warner and Hagan where thumping their opponents for a cool splash of reality. Funny enough, polls did pick up on CO/Gardner being more competitive than the former two…

[GeorgiaModerate]

It’s a cliché, but even the vote share/MoE qualification isn’t going to explain away/excuse the polling misses we’re going to see this year. It’s another cliché, but every cycle keeps getting even worse for the industry.

At this point, it’s just entertainment and meme material.

No, the entertaining part is seeing people declare that the polls are wildly off this year...when it's still almost three months until Election Day.

Maybe they will be off by that much, and if so then yes, it will be a big miss.  But maybe they won't.  Soon enough we will know.  Simply assuming the result will follow your preconceptions is just posturing.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

It’s a cliché, but even the vote share/MoE qualification isn’t going to explain away/excuse the polling misses we’re going to see this year. It’s another cliché, but every cycle keeps getting even worse for the industry.

At this point, it’s just entertainment and meme material.

No, the entertaining part is seeing people declare that the polls are wildly off this year...when it's still almost three months until Election Day.

Maybe they will be off by that much, and if so then yes, it will be a big miss.  But maybe they won't.  Soon enough we will know.  Simply assuming the result will follow your preconceptions is just posturing.

I mean it's Wisconsin.. people have a right to be skeptical.

Remember the Biden+18 fiasco.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It’s a cliché, but even the vote share/MoE qualification isn’t going to explain away/excuse the polling misses we’re going to see this year. It’s another cliché, but every cycle keeps getting even worse for the industry.

At this point, it’s just entertainment and meme material.

No, the entertaining part is seeing people declare that the polls are wildly off this year...when it's still almost three months until Election Day.

Maybe they will be off by that much, and if so then yes, it will be a big miss.  But maybe they won't.  Soon enough we will know.  Simply assuming the result will follow your preconceptions is just posturing.

I mean it's Wisconsin.. people have a right to he skeptical.

Remember the Biden+18 fiasco.

That was one poll, IIRC.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

It’s a cliché, but even the vote share/MoE qualification isn’t going to explain away/excuse the polling misses we’re going to see this year. It’s another cliché, but every cycle keeps getting even worse for the industry.

At this point, it’s just entertainment and meme material.

No, the entertaining part is seeing people declare that the polls are wildly off this year...when it's still almost three months until Election Day.

Maybe they will be off by that much, and if so then yes, it will be a big miss.  But maybe they won't.  Soon enough we will know.  Simply assuming the result will follow your preconceptions is just posturing.

I mean it's Wisconsin.. people have a right to he skeptical.

Remember the Biden+18 fiasco.

That was one poll, IIRC.

Not really.. Reuters and NY Times/Siena had Biden up by double digits in the state as well..

[Minnesota Mike]

Barnes+7 and Evers+2 in the same poll is not a combination I would have expected.

The weird thing is the independent who's taking 7% in the gov race seems relatively conservative.. (cites "dishonest media" and she's pro life).

- Ideology matters hardly at all for 3rd party voters, voting 3rd party is a protest vote. See Pot parties in Minnesota.

- I would be very surprised if she ended up with 7% of the vote, 3rd party candidates almost always poll better than they actually do.

[Unelectable Bystander]

It’s a cliché, but even the vote share/MoE qualification isn’t going to explain away/excuse the polling misses we’re going to see this year. It’s another cliché, but every cycle keeps getting even worse for the industry.

At this point, it’s just entertainment and meme material.

No, the entertaining part is seeing people declare that the polls are wildly off this year...when it's still almost three months until Election Day.

Maybe they will be off by that much, and if so then yes, it will be a big miss.  But maybe they won't.  Soon enough we will know.  Simply assuming the result will follow your preconceptions is just posturing.

I mean it's Wisconsin.. people have a right to he skeptical.

Remember the Biden+18 fiasco.

That was one poll, IIRC.

Not really.. Reuters and NY Times/Siena had Biden up by double digits in the state as well..

And it wasn’t just 2020. It was 53-42 Feingold at this point in 2016 per Marquette

[MT Treasurer]

In a head-to-head matchup for Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race, among registered voters, Democratic candidate Russ Feingold is supported by 49 percent while Republican incumbent Ron Johnson receives 43 percent. In July, Feingold had 48 percent support and Johnson 41 percent.

Among likely voters in November’s election, Feingold has the support of 53 percent while Johnson is supported by 42 percent. Among likely voters in July, Feingold was supported by 49 percent and Johnson by 44 percent. ...

The poll was conducted August 4-7, 2016.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/08/10/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds/

[Xing]

FWIW, Marquette specifically had Biden up by 5 pretty consistently in 2020. Still a decent-sized miss, though as I said in the other thread, the October poll is at least worth paying a bit of attention to, even if it could still end up being off.