Prince Edward Island provincial election - April 3, 2023

[Benjamin Frank]

It seems Premier Dennis King is considering calling the election this month.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-nomination-season-begins-1.6742868

[Benjamin Frank]

The Liberals running their leader against the Green leader does seem to make it clear that they don't think they have any chance at all.

Last time the PCs didn't lead a single poll before or during the campaign until one right before election day and won a majority, so polling shouldn't be taken too seriously.

They actually won a minority on election day.

[Benjamin Frank]

A PEI poll was just released by Narrative:

PCs - 49% (up 12% from 2019 election)
Greens - 22% (down 9%)
Liberals - 19% (down 10%)
NDP - 9% (up 6%)

https://narrativeresearch.ca/satisfaction-with-king-government-remains-strong-in-pei/

Given the general history of PEI elections, that's getting into sweeping-the-legislature territory--or, as mentioned, 1-1-1 opposition territory.  (Ah, the government-in-waiting buzz about the Greens last time has *really* faded)

In the 1935 election, the Liberals won all 30 seats.

[Benjamin Frank]

Prediction
P.C 21
Green 4
Liberal 2

[Benjamin Frank]

CBC live coverage here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gM2nZSZwlGg

2 Advanced polls already in. PCs lead (win) both handily. At least one Green incumbent is going down to defeat.

[Benjamin Frank]

Possibly record low turnout at 68.5%, a full 10% decline (from 78%) from 2019.

[Benjamin Frank]

This isn't anywhere near as significant as it sounds, but since (up to now) it was a Green Party talking point, this is the first election in Canadian history where a Green Party MLA was defeated.

[Benjamin Frank]

I'm also wondering if there's ever been a major party leader/incoming opposition leader to bomb as badly in his/her individual riding as Sharon Cameron (14.7% for a distant 3rd)

And anyone with half a brain could've predicted that would happen too. Why she decided to run against PBB is beyond me.

I can only think it was for the immediate publicity hit. She doesn't even live in that riding.

She specifically chose to run against Bevan-Baker because she said she thought he was a weak leader of the opposition. So, it also doesn't make sense that she chose to campaign against another opposition party rather than the government.

Since she hasn't stepped down yet, I certainly hope that the PEI Liberals show her the door.