UK General Discussion: Rishecession (user search)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-63727562?utm_campaign=later-linkinbio-bbcnews&utm_content=later-31226638&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkin.bio

The Supreme Court has ruled that Scotland can not hold an independance referendum without the UK Government's consent.

Why has this not gotten more comment here?

So, what can Scotland do? Hold a 'plebicite' instead and dare the U.K government to not recognize the result if it's in favor of independence?

So the SNP are in a bit of a pickle. The present and past crop of leaders - no idea about the future ones - really, really, don't want to do this sort of thing. They see how this has faired for Catalonia and all it has done is encouraged both the PSOE and PP to use the spiked boot when the olive branch and bureaucracy fail, calcified the impasse between both sides, and turned Catalonia's provincial government into an electoral extension of the nationalists. None of this is beneficial towards independence if you actually believe in that project, and aren't a cynical opportunist looking to use identity polarization to make the devolved government into a patronage machine cause you hold all the leavers of power for decades. Also, the SNP really want to return to the EU ASAP after independence, so everything has to be nice and legal for Spain and others to allow them in.

But why are the SNP in this situation? After the 2021 election, the SNP promised to reinvigorate the independence question. One potential legal path was this argument, that they could hold a vote without Westminster approval. That's now gone, though the outcome was expected. Then there was the idea of becoming the kingmakers in a 2023/4 election, and extracting Labour into allowing a vote for support from their MPs. That plan was blown up when Boris left and the Tories electoral bottom fell out. Now there's the idea of running a single issue campaign in the next GE on independence, and treating the likely results as full endorsement. That however seems like setting yourself up to fail, since Labour at this point are almost certain to make the Scottish results a net loss for the SNP at minimum. Which leaves the SNP backed into a corner where the Catalan option is the easiest way out. It is also the option which would most destroy their credibility outside Scotland and potentially negatively effect their electoral brand since an amicable divorce rather than conflict has been the desired and marketed outcome for decades now.

Thanks for the comprehensive answer.

It's interesting despite Scotland voting heavily in favor of remaining in the E.U, that it seems to have shifted only a small percentage of Scottish voters in favor of leaving the U.K.

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