Why is the race so close?

[solidcoalition]

Ever since 2000 (and arguably since 1992), we've been in a sort of Second "Gilded Age", similar to the period between 1876 and 1896. During that time, the country saw nothing but close presidential elections, with two highly energized and partisan political bases "going at" each other for the opportunity to take direction of the country's fortunes.

It was also a time of extremely overt political corruption, poor working conditions, anti-immigrant sentiment, and politics based around cultural issues.

Sounds like today.

[solidcoalition]

Polarization

When you overplay your hand with race issues and turn apolitical people to people who are skeptical about race relations with overgeneralizations, you will see a close race.

Out of curiosity, should Biden win in November despite significant support for Trump from law enforcement, their families, police unions, etc., what do you think the path forward would be for Republicans on this particular issue?

They'll follow the LIGOP's model, which the LIGOP have been doing since 1945, run ads on MS-13, law and order, and coordinate with PBAs and other police unions to attack Democratic politicians or libertarians who push for police accountability.

They'll run someone like a Cotton or a DeSantis who is a law and order type.

The Democrats have to bridge gaps with police, especially white cops, because most of the white cops in the NYPD live on Long Island and are supporting Trump just like the PBA boss.

The NY Times did a story yesterday on this.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/14/nyregion/ny-police-unions-racial-disparity-trump.html

Is that not already what the GOP is doing? It seems like running as a nation-wide LIGOP won't really expand their appeal beyond where it already is, and the fastest growing voting demographics tend to be the least likely to support "tough on crime" policies.

Right but some of those demographics don’t help Democrats electorally. You can win 29 million more voters, but if they’re all in Chicago, San Jose, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Boston and New York...the map doesn’t change one single electoral vote.

[solidcoalition]

Base of 42ish% that is essentially a lock to vote any candidate in the R column.  You don't need to spend any money convincing them.  They would vote for me if I was on the ballot.

They just need to peck away at the loosely coupled voters - those not locked into a party - and the infrequent voters.  And they don't even need to get to 50% of the popular vote nationally to win.

• Non-college educated, white men... "they" will be taking your jobs and your daughters... bing!
• Florida Cuban Americans...  vote for the other side and you will get the Socialist leader you escaped from...  bing!
• Older Latina/Latino...  abortion, removing God, etc...  bing!

Top that off with an uninspiring Democrat candidate (Dems fall in love, Reps fall in line) and you get a close race.

Bingo. Had we nominated someone like Warren we wouldn’t have these problems.

[solidcoalition]

The race really isn't that close. The only thing that gives it the illusion it's closer than it is is the EC.

That’s what matters though. New York and California are irrelevant.