2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[SenatorCouzens]

http://steveschale.com/

"So far, roughly 2 out of every 3 registered Florida Democratic and Republican voter has voted.  Honestly, there aren't that many more people left to vote.  In terms of actual voters - I suspect Democrats will go into Election Day (including today VBM) with a lead somewhere between 110-115K voters.  Republicans have about 150K more high propensity voters than do the Democrats left to vote.  Democrats have 150K or more low propensity voters to vote.  Where all that lands tomorrow is the difference between winning and losing....


So here are some things I am going to watch for tomorrow.

First - the "swing counties."  There were four:  Jefferson (rural North Florida), Monroe (The Conch Republic), St. Lucie (Palm Beach media market), Pinellas (St. Petersburg/Clearwater).  Beyond this, there are two counties that I suspect will flip if Biden wins:  Duval (Jacksonville), and Seminole (suburban Orlando). I will likely go look at Pinellas and Duval first - mostly because they both have a history of returning VBM/EV pretty quickly.  

Next: the "base counties" - I want to see how Dade is doing.  I don't expect Biden to hit Clinton levels, but I would like to see him hit margins around Obama 2012. I also want to see Broward next door. I think there is a decent chance Broward hits margins enough to make up any loss from Clinton in Dade. Palm Beach is usually slow to report - but they have changed some things up, so hopefully we will get an early read there."

He hasn't really said anything insightful other than above. Seems like he's clueless how Florida will go this year.  

It all depends on how much Democrats will turn out tomorrow to reduce Republican advantage.

Schale predicted the major statewide races in Florida in 2014, 2016, and 2018 would all go to the Democrats. Either he is FINALLY being analytical and cautious, or he's seeing bad numbers.

[SenatorCouzens]

http://steveschale.com/

"So far, roughly 2 out of every 3 registered Florida Democratic and Republican voter has voted.  Honestly, there aren't that many more people left to vote.  In terms of actual voters - I suspect Democrats will go into Election Day (including today VBM) with a lead somewhere between 110-115K voters.  Republicans have about 150K more high propensity voters than do the Democrats left to vote.  Democrats have 150K or more low propensity voters to vote.  Where all that lands tomorrow is the difference between winning and losing....


So here are some things I am going to watch for tomorrow.

First - the "swing counties."  There were four:  Jefferson (rural North Florida), Monroe (The Conch Republic), St. Lucie (Palm Beach media market), Pinellas (St. Petersburg/Clearwater).  Beyond this, there are two counties that I suspect will flip if Biden wins:  Duval (Jacksonville), and Seminole (suburban Orlando). I will likely go look at Pinellas and Duval first - mostly because they both have a history of returning VBM/EV pretty quickly.  

Next: the "base counties" - I want to see how Dade is doing.  I don't expect Biden to hit Clinton levels, but I would like to see him hit margins around Obama 2012. I also want to see Broward next door. I think there is a decent chance Broward hits margins enough to make up any loss from Clinton in Dade. Palm Beach is usually slow to report - but they have changed some things up, so hopefully we will get an early read there."

He hasn't really said anything insightful other than above. Seems like he's clueless how Florida will go this year.  

It all depends on how much Democrats will turn out tomorrow to reduce Republican advantage.

Schale predicted the major statewide races in Florida in 2014, 2016, and 2018 would all go to the Democrats. Either he is FINALLY being analytical and cautious, or he's seeing bad numbers.

To be fair, his predictions were only off by ~1 point.

Haha... I assume you're just sort of teasing but in case not... It's Florida, any prediction is going to be close! Literally anyone, and even a tossed coin, only would've been off by ~1 those years.