Dem hopes to take back the House rest on DCCC's $51.5M ad blitz

[zorkpolitics]

Nice list you, I would suggest you can rank the competitiveness by the $ amount. 
Among Dem incumbents clearly Melissa Bean is the only one at risk.
Among Dem. Open seats they are surprisingly worried about VT

As for open seat takeover targets, looks like the only ones they aren't very confident of taking are NY-24 and WI-08.

Among Republican Incumbents surprisingly, they are not investing much into CT-04, but also not much into CO-4 and VA-02.

Thus, looks like The DCCC is expecting to pick up at least 22 seats.

I actually think this is still a bit conservative.  The NPR poll in the 50 most competitive districts found a 17 point swing from the 2004 result (Republicans won by 12%) to now (Democrats lead by 5%).  A 17 point swing would indicate about a 30 seat shift.