KY (Mason-Dixon): McConnell +9

[KYRockefeller]

I think that Charles Booker, Rocky Adkins, or Steve Beshear could have narrowly defeat Mitch McConnell this year. Kentucky (much like Texas and maybe North Carolina) is another state where the Democrats messed on candidate vetting this year.

Agree on the last two, but not the first.  Whatever far-left support Booker might generate in Louisville/Lexington would get swamped out by the rest of the state and Mitch would coast to an easy win without having to do much.  Running on the Green New Deal in Eastern KY would be too easy for Mitch to blast in ads, for example.  And Booker only won like 5 counties against McGrath in the primary and didn't win the big ones by extraordinary margins.

I've said for a long time that a New Deal Democrat can win in Kentucky but someone of the Bernie/AOC variety is not going to have a prayer unless they are running in Louisville's Congressional District.  Adkins would've been a great nominee for Dems to run and I think they should look at putting him up in 2022 versus Rand Paul.  But I don't know if Adkins pro-life positions would get through a primary.

I will say this about Mitch:  A lot of voters never like him until about a month out from the election and then they decide to vote for him after considering his challengers.  He closes well.

[KYRockefeller]

I think that Charles Booker, Rocky Adkins, or Steve Beshear could have narrowly defeat Mitch McConnell this year. Kentucky (much like Texas and maybe North Carolina) is another state where the Democrats messed on candidate vetting this year.

Agree on the last two, but not the first.  Whatever far-left support Booker might generate in Louisville/Lexington would get swamped out by the rest of the state and Mitch would coast to an easy win without having to do much.  Running on the Green New Deal in Eastern KY would be too easy for Mitch to blast in ads, for example.  And Booker only won like 5 counties against McGrath in the primary and didn't win the big ones by extraordinary margins.

I've said for a long time that a New Deal Democrat can win in Kentucky but someone of the Bernie/AOC variety is not going to have a prayer unless they are running in Louisville's Congressional District.  Adkins would've been a great nominee for Dems to run and I think they should look at putting him up in 2022 versus Rand Paul.  But I don't know if Adkins pro-life positions would get through a primary.

I will say this about Mitch:  A lot of voters never like him until about a month out from the election and then they decide to vote for him after considering his challengers.  He closes well.

Agree with all of this.

I still really wish Adkins had run.

I know Beshear is the toast of the town for national Democrats, but the fact is that if Adkins had beaten him in the Democratic primary that he would have ANNIHILATED Bevin in the governor's race where Beshear only won by like 5,000 votes.  As a moderate GOPer, I'd happily crossover to vote for Adkins if he sought higher office.