Will Trump launch a coup during Biden's term?

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It's abundantly clear now that Trump will not concede, possibly ever. His "voter fraud" arguments are now the mainstream position of the Republican party; over 2/3 of House Republicans will vote to reject Biden electors. Trump's lawsuits have gotten zero traction in the courts, and the Electoral Count Act will not save him either, so he has no other option if he wants to take back power.

Right now the military is firmly on the side of the Constitution and will not back Trump. However, if Trump and the Republican Party continue to insist for months or years that Biden is an illegitimate president elected fraudulently, I think it's quite possible a rogue faction of the military will emerge to support a Trump coup, allured by promises of power and seeing that almost half the population doesn't accept President Biden. Trump already has the support of his militias will also probably find support among police forces.

Let's ignore the question whether the coup will succeed.

It's even possible that the Republican Party will start openly calling for a coup. Opposition parties will do this on occasion in countries like Pakistan and Thailand where the government is elected but the military is directly involved in politics. I'm voting for 2 but to me 1 is a realistic possibility.

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Nice job bringing this thread back, I guess Trump didn't even wait for Biden to take office? Or this doesn't count since as far as we can tell the insurrection is not armed?

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Thinking back on my original post, my conclusion now is that a coup definitely could have succeeded, but Trump screwed the pooch by launching a coup last Wednesday. What he could have done, if he were entirely cold and rational, is to dial back his rhetoric slightly so as to not provoke the riot at the Capitol, but keep the "stolen election" drumbeat going well into Biden's term. This would have caused the Republican party to coalesce around this view, giving the impression that half the country considers Biden illegitimate, and then the pro-MAGA factions in the military would have gained strength; we now know that these factions in fact exist. Once that strength was enough Trump could have launched a real coup with military and Republican establishment backing, overthrown Biden, and the rest of the military could have been intimidated into accepting the result.

Instead, he launched the coup too early when it was without military support and doomed to fail, got himself impeached and his cause discredited to the point that MAGA is openly associated with terrorism and treason in the public eye, and now his militias are being prosecuted and the sympathetic factions in the police and military in the process of being purged. Maybe this proves that Trump is not really playing 4D chess but just does whatever the hell he feels like, and it really, really didn't work for him this time.