Illinois Redistricting Megathread

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LOL
https://capitolfax.com/2021/10/15/new-congressional-maps-released/

You can view this map as a series of messages to some Democrats and Democratic constituencies. For instance, the message to Newman seems to be: You have a choice between running against Kinzinger with relatively few Chicago precincts or you can represent a Latino district. I’m told Newman made huge demands and was generally uncooperative.

If Mike Madigan were still around, the real reason would be that Newman pissed him off somehow. Is his machine still running like it used with a different leader?

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Lipinski says he's thinking of running

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/former-illinois-us-rep-dan-lipinski-considers-running-house-again

Lmao, drama already. Who said Illinois politics are stiff and boring?

He will get crushed without incumbency advantage lol

He’s probably considered a quasi-incumbent like David Valadao or Rick Scott.

There seems to be this fallacious assumption that "more marginal seat = better for Lipinski." This is wrong because the areas Lipinski enjoyed crossover support did not vote for him in the primaries. Those ethnic white suburbs backed Newman. The crossover voters are Republicans, and the voters who participate in the Dem primary are analogous to suburban whites in more Liberal parts of the collar. Lipinski won the madigan machine neighborhoods and Hispanics. Exhuming the Hispanic areas and adding in areas he never represented hurts Lipinski's odds at a comeback.

Which was likely her goal. Apparently she leveled a lot of demands and the commission could only follow a handful, especially since she's a freshman. We saw this before in Maryland, where Donna Edwards demanded a lot of the mappers, and they ignored almost all of her wishes in favor of the senior members of the delegation. She likely wanted to remove the Hispanics and add in as much white suburbs the Lipinski never repped as possible. Unable to follow this in full, she gets a weaker seat.

The resulting product though appears to have "taught some sense" as it were, since she criticized the map for removing Hispanic areas from her seat. Probably will change, ironically in a way that makes it more possible for primary battle round 3.

Good analysis. She think she's safe from Lipinski... but now she might lose to Kinzinger. I think she definitely pissed off the machine and they're going after her, even if Mike Madigan is not running it anymore.

I wonder if Lipinski would plan on pulling a Van Drew and switch parties.

That would be an entertaining Republican primary, the honorable Trump-hating conservative Kinzinger versus the former Democratic turncoat likely turned Trumpist (like Van Drew and Rod Blagojevich).

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They really, really hate Newman it seems.

Indeed, it looks like the Madigan machine still has punch even if he is not running it anymore.

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They really, really hate Newman it seems.

Indeed, it looks like the Madigan machine still has punch even if he is not running it anymore.

I do not think this is the case and certainly would not expect Casten to be favored in that seat.

That's what I noticed as well. They completely obliterated the current IL-06. In the abstract, that would make sense, since that district was originally drawn to be the Republican vote sink for Chicagoland. Obviously, trends have moved us past the need for such a district. But that's in the abstract, as opposed to reality with an actual Democratic incumbent. If I didn't know any better, I would think they're not too fond of Casten. On the other hand, it does like the most Democratic precincts from the current IL-06 are in the proposed new IL-06.

Why would you expect that Newman would win the D primary in the new IL-06? This does not look like progressive friendly territory and Casten has seniority over Newman.

In any case, combine this with the first draft which had Newman in a district with Kinzinger that she could easily lose to him, and to me it indicates that the IL legislature (a.k.a. machine) has the knives out for Newman.

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They really, really hate Newman it seems.

Indeed, it looks like the Madigan machine still has punch even if he is not running it anymore.

I do not think this is the case and certainly would not expect Casten to be favored in that seat.

That's what I noticed as well. They completely obliterated the current IL-06. In the abstract, that would make sense, since that district was originally drawn to be the Republican vote sink for Chicagoland. Obviously, trends have moved us past the need for such a district. But that's in the abstract, as opposed to reality with an actual Democratic incumbent. If I didn't know any better, I would think they're not too fond of Casten. On the other hand, it does like the most Democratic precincts from the current IL-06 are in the proposed new IL-06.

Why would you expect that Newman would win the D primary in the new IL-06? This does not look like progressive friendly territory and Casten has seniority over Newman.

I think (and this is not you, it's a general criticism) people overrate the importance of ideology and underestimate the importance of self-presentation and biographical details. Casten might score out as a more moderate candidate based on legislative votes and policy platforms, but he's also this sort of egghead scientist guy and an outspoken atheist (which, to his credit, is a profile that plays very well in the western burbs, where there's a big market for the In This House We Believe Science kind of thing).

But the majority of votes in this district are not coming from the west burbs; because of the redraw, most of the district is in the southwest burbs. This is a more suburban-with-three-kids kind of area, more downscale, more Catholic. Newman has been very precise about crafting an image of herself as a Concerned Suburban Mom, which is something that plays very well in this district. (Also, incidentally, a large Palestinian population.)

Contrast their bios on their official campaign websites — this is how they've chosen to present themselves to voters and their public. Newman spends the first few paragraphs of her bio talking about 1. her family's union roots, 2. the Beverly parish she grew up in, and 3. the Catholic university she went to. Casten's bio talks about "development of technologies to produce fuel-grade ethanol from cellulosic feedstocks." Very different vibes! And I suspect the former will play a lot better than the latter, as far as the bulk of this seat is concerned.

Good points, if she can present herself as a progressive firebrand nationally to raise money and increase her profile, while presenting herself credibly to her district as one of the people and in tune with their concerns, then she is a skilled politician who has a good chance to win. We'll see if her local image can hold up when the ads start flying about how she's an ally (or a member?) of the Squad, supports defunding the police, voted against Iron Dome funding, etc.

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https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1453876391666241536

Haha, is it not abundantly obvious now that the machine is going after Newman? They must have heard our feedback that she could be favored over Casten in the previous draft, so they put her with a Hispanic incumbent in a district that contains Hispanic parts of Chicago.

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Newman declares she will run for reelection in IL-6. I wonder how hard the IL machine will have its thumb on the scale for the Casten vs Newman primary battle, it could get ugly.

https://twitter.com/capitolfax/status/1454107770429448198