Wasserman shrewdly observed a couple of weeks ago that if Biden was doing well in Minnesota and Wisconsin, it would make sense that he's doing better in Iowa too. Biden + 3 in Iowa appears a little too generous, but it would make sense that the state is a pure toss-up. Following Wasserman's logic, if Biden is favored in Minnesota and Wisconsin, while Iowa is a toss-up, what does that say about Ohio?
Ohio would be Lean R in that scenario. It's not as set in stone for Trump as many believe but I don't think it ultimately flips.
