What will GA-Sen's result be? (user search)

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What will GA-Sen's result be? (search mode)

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Poll

Question:

What will GA-Sen's result be

#1 Warnock wins outright in the first round		12 (24.5%)
#2 Warnock leads in the first round, wins the runoff		6 (12.2%)
#3 Warnock leads in the first round, loses the runoff		6 (12.2%)
#4 Walker wins outright in the first round		18 (36.7%)
#5 Walker leads in the first round, wins the runoff		4 (8.2%)
#6 Walker leads in the first round, loses the runoff		3 (6.1%)

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Partisan results

Total Voters: 49

Author

Topic: What will GA-Sen's result be? (Read 651 times)

Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp

Posts: 5,209

Re: What will GA-Sen's result be?

« on: February 10, 2022, 03:33:35 AM »

I think a runoff is 50-50 likely. Whoever wins a runoff I feel would depend on the composition in November. If the Dems are already at 50 without it, I think Warnock would win. If the GOP is already at 51, I think Dem turnout would be partly depressed and so Walker would win. If it's 50-49 GOP with this seat to decide control, it could go either way.

I think Warnock has a slightly better chance of winning in November outright but Walker could easily do the same. I'd say Walker has about a 60% chance of winning altogether as of now but that leaves plenty of room for the race to go other way. This is a race I probably wouldn't be even 70% confident on until the polls close in November.

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