Hot take: It's not all that unlikely for AZ to vote left of NV

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Here's a comparison, I will show you all how much NV voted left of AZ every election since 2008.

Here we go...

2008: Nevada voted 21.01% to the left of Arizona
2012: Nevada voted 15.74% to the left of Arizona
2016: Nevada voted 5.92% to the left of Arizona
2020: Nevada voted 2.08% to the left of Arizona

As you can see, the gap between the two has narrowed rather significantly in every election since 2008. While this doesn't mean much per se, but it does show that the two have been swinging in opposite directions as of late and it's not that unbelievable that AZ could vote left of NV in 2024 if you look at the numbers.

If the gap goes down the same amount in 2024 as from 2016 to 2020, Arizona will be to the left of Nevada in 2024.

Of course, This is just a hot take of mine.

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This possibility could be significant for 2024 in a number of ways. For example, Here's a 269-269 map that has Arizona blue but Nevada red.

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This possibility could be significant for 2024 in a number of ways. For example, Here's a 269-269 map that has Arizona blue but Nevada red.

It's scary how completely plausible this looks.

True. It really isn't the most unrealistic scenario.

Here's a plausible scenario where Arizona is blue and Nevada decides the entire election:

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This possibility could be significant for 2024 in a number of ways. For example, Here's a 269-269 map that has Arizona blue but Nevada red.

That map is vort

This possibility could be significant for 2024 in a number of ways. For example, Here's a 269-269 map that has Arizona blue but Nevada red.

It's scary how completely plausible this looks.

True. It really isn't the most unrealistic scenario.

Here's a plausible scenario where Arizona is blue and Nevada decides the entire election:

If Republicans are winning all three of the Rust Belt Trio there is no way they’re losing NC.

If there's increased WWC turnout but also unexpectedly increased turnout of Blacks, It's at least feasible.